The Rare Coin Market Report

Counterfeits and coin doctoring: Two threats to long-term rare coin market

2012-01-30T11:17:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the Feb. 13, 2012, issue of Coin World

The problems of counterfeit coins and “coin doctoring” are two issues that have the potential to harm the coin market in the long term if not properly addressed.

Fake and doctored coins pose long-term threats to the hobby. Shown is a legitimately produced replica of a 1793 Flowing Hair, Chain cent that was later artificially circulated after the word COPY was removed from the piece.

For replicas, eBay sellers typically pictured coins marked COPY in accordance with the Hobby Protection Act. However, buyers reported receiving coins without the required clear markings. To average collectors, many of these coins were good enough to pass as legitimate; especially with copper and copper-nickel coins that did not require precious metals to fully replicate the originals. For example, replica large cents in circulated condition were highly deceptive.

A long-term effect of the sale of these replicas marked with COPY is that these “coins” will eventually get passed down to future generations, and those who will receive them, likely unaware that they are replicas, could sell them as coins, whereby the pieces might trickle into the marketplace, casually included in collections of genuine coins.

Now that eBay has placed restrictions on the sale of replicas, a major supply point into the United States has been cut off. Especially when one considers that the sale of low-level forgeries potentially funded more advanced studies for counterfeiters for high-end coins, the new eBay policy should prove beneficial to the market in the long-term.

The ongoing discussion of “coin doctoring” continues to bring this problem to the attention of the hobby, and the multi-year struggles of the Professional Numismatists Guild to adopt a definition shows the problematic nature of the topic as the line between conservation and deceptive surface manipulation is often a fine one.

Like with the counterfeiting problem, as technology improves and the techniques of coin doctors improve, the potential for coin buyers to be harmed expands.

The long-term threat to the hobby is that once a coin buyer is burned, he or she may never return to buy another rare coin.

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Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and consultant. He also works with 19th and 20th century European and American paintings is an accredited member of the International Society of Appraisers and sits on its board of directors. Steve is also the associate editor of Coin World. Visit Steve online at www.steveroachonline.com

Classic collectible coins continue to increase in value

2012-01-23T07:28:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach - www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the February 6, 2012, Special Edition of Coin World

Some coins historically have been considered classic key coins, and acquiring these relatively expensive coins signals a purchaser’s commitment to collecting. Key coins in collector-friendly circulated grades have historically been among the strongest stores of value in numismatics. A look at their prices over the past decade shows a trend: that quality collector coins increase in price over time.

(Image, Left) The 1909-S Lincoln, V.D.B. cent is a classic key date cent popular with collectors as both a one-year subtype and a product of the San Francisco Mint.

The prices for nice circulated examples have risen steadily.
While common examples of Morgan and Peace dollars appropriate for type purposes can be purchased for little more than their silver content, Trade dollars and Draped Bust dollars require effort and selectivity to find a problem-free example that meets a buyer’s personal standards of attractiveness.

For example, a handsome Extremely Fine 40 Trade dollar — an infrequently found issue and unusual denomination — was valued at the $135 level a decade ago. Today, nice-looking examples in that grade are rarely found for less than $200 and typically approach $250.

Another example of a historically expensive, classic collectible coin that is most popularly collected as a type coin is a Draped Bust dollar in Very Fine 20. These too have roughly doubled in price in the last decade. Ten years ago examples were trading at $1,200, while today problem-free examples with pleasant surfaces trade for around $2,000.

This trend also shows itself with key dates. A decade ago, VF-20 examples of a 1909-S Lincoln, V.D.B. cent traded at around $600. Five years later they jumped in price to the $800 level, and today dealers routinely price nice examples at the $1,000 level. The 1914-D Lincoln cent, a lesser rarity in the series, was valued at $150 in Fine 12 a decade ago. Today, examples in that grade can sell for as much as $350 at local coin shops.

In recent months, 1916-D Winged Liberty Head dimes in Very Good 8 have traded at auction at the $1,500 level, but a decade ago an example in that grade could have been purchased for half that price.

The upward trend in prices can be seen across nearly all classic key issues in the $100 to $2,500 price range.

A development in the past decade that has perhaps contributed to the increase in prices is that collectors are increasingly demanding that their collector-grade key coins and expensive type coins be encapsulated by third-party grading services. As many classic key dates are commonly counterfeited or altered, and early type coins are often repaired, third-party grading provides buyers with the confidence that their expensive coins are what they appear to be. Further, certification helps remove any surprises when it is time to sell.

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Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and consultant. He also works with 19th and 20th century European and American paintings is an accredited member of the International Society of Appraisers and sits on its board of directors. Steve is also the associate editor of Coin World. Visit Steve online at www.steveroachonline.com

Evaluating the FUN auctions: Some rarities lag prior prices

2012-01-16T08:40:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach - www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the January 31, 2012 issue of Coin World

While the two seven-figure coins offered at Heritage Auctions’ 2012 Florida United Numismatists auctions — a 1793 Flowing Hair, Chain, With Periods cent graded Mint State 65 brown and an 1829 Capped Head half eagle graded Proof 64 — both brought $1.38 million, multiples more than their last times at the auction block, not all lots established record prices.

Image (left): Coins don’t always appreciate in value, as evidenced by this NGC Mint State 68 1937-S Indian Head 5-cent coin that realized $11,500 at the recent FUN auctions. The same coin had sold for $26,450 at a 2009 auction.

Although some coins from the Dr. and Mrs. Steven L. Duckor Collection of Saint-Gaudens $20 double eagles set records, others performed at or below expectations. For example, a 1931 example graded Mint State 66 that was formerly in the collection of Louis E. Eliasberg Sr. sold within expectations for $126,500. That price was an improvement on the $17,600 that it realized in 1982 when it was offered as part of the Eliasberg estate, and comparable to three 2007 auction offerings where similarly graded examples realized $126,500 to $143,750.

In contrast, the Duckor Collection’s top lot, a 1921 double eagle graded MS-66, realized $747,500 — big money, but less than the $1,092,500 that a peer example brought as part of the Philip Morse Collection in 2005. Duckor’s coin had last appeared at auction in 1984 where it brought $57,500.

Sometimes auction descriptions provide the price that a coin last sold for at auction, seemingly to support a coin’s value. This tactic was used for some lots in the Teton Ranch Collection of often finest-known Numismatic Guaranty Corp. certified Indian Head 5-cent coins. Most of the high-value lots sold for less than the prices achieved at their last public offering as noted in the catalog.

The collection’s top lot, an MS-64 1916 Doubled Die Obverse 5-cent coin, a legendary rarity, realized $172,500. The same coin brought $276,000 when offered at an April 2008 Bowers and Merena auction.

A 1919-S 5-cent piece graded MS-66 by Numismatic Guaranty Corp realized $25,300, a far cry from its last trip to auction in 2008 where it brought $92,000, while an NGC MS-66★ 1918-S 5-cent coin realized $23,000 in contrast to the $51,750 that it brought at a 2009 auction.

Perhaps most the most cautionary result was a 1926-S Indian Head 5-cent coin that sold for $92,000, a seemingly strong price until one considers that at its last offering in April 2008 it brought $322,000, establishing a record price for a 1926-S 5-cent coin.

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Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and consultant. He also works with 19th and 20th century European and American paintings is an accredited member of the International Society of Appraisers and sits on its board of directors. Steve is also the associate editor of Coin World. Visit Steve online at www.steveroachonline.com

1793 Chain cent sets record for U.S. copper coin at auction selling for $1.38 million

2012-01-11T15:56:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the January 23, 2012, issue of Coin World

Two early United States coins with provenances that trace them back to legendary collections broke the million dollar barrier when they crossed the auction block in Orlando, Fla., during an auction at the Florida United Numismatists convention.

The 1793 Flowing Hair, Chain, With Periods cent, top, and 1829 Capped Head, Large Date gold $5 half eagle, bottom, each sold at auction for $1.38 million.

On Jan. 4, during the first of two Platinum Night sessions, Heritage Auctions sold a 1793 Flowing Hair, Chain, Periods cent, graded Mint State 65 brown, for $1,380,000. On Jan. 5, during the second Platinum Night session, an 1829 Capped Head, Large Date gold $5 half eagle, graded Proof 64, also realized $1,380,000.

The Flowing Hair, Chain cent’s price now makes it the most expensive cent sold at auction, breaking the record set in 2009 when the finest known 1795 Liberty Cap, Reeded Edge cent, sold for $1,265,000 as part of the Dan Holmes Collection of large cents.

The Chain cent sold in the auction is the Sheldon 4 variety, as cataloged in William H. Sheldon’s Penny Whimsey. The Liberty Cap, Reeded Edge cent is cataloged as Sheldon 79.

The record-setting Chain cent is the second finest known of the variety — the finest being an example graded Specimen 67 brown — and carries a provenance that traces back to W. Elliot Woodward’s Fifth Semi-Annual Sale in October 1864. The coin was sold at auction in 1996 by Bowers and Merena as part of the Louis E. Eliasberg Sr. Collection where it realized $132,000, and again in 2004 in an American Numismatic Rarities auction where it brought $391,000 — then a record for any cent sold at auction.

The 1829 Capped Head $5 half eagle also has a lengthy provenance, tracing back to the Joseph J. Mickley Collection in the mid-19th century. It was later part of the John Work Garrett Collection, where it was cataloged in its 1979 auction appearance as a Mint State piece, with the comment, “quite possibly this piece was struck as a Proof; it is definitely a special striking, perhaps a presentation piece.”

It was last sold at auction by Superior in 1996 as part of the Michael I. Keaston Collection, where it realized $190,000. The Heritage catalog entry noted that the offered example is the only certified Proof of the entire type, although a one-sided Proof example is included in the Harry Bass Collection.

Strong FUN auctions bode well for the rest of the year in that they set the tone for the market, and the 2012 results compare favorably to the last several years. In 2011, the top 10 lots brought $5,899,500, led by a 1907 Indian Head gold $10 eagle graded Satin Proof 67 — formerly in the collection of Mint Director Frank A. Leach — that sold for $2.185 million. In 2012 the top 10 lots brought $6.9 million.

While it will be tough to beat 2010, where the top 10 lots at the FUN Platinum Night auction realized $8,487,000, including a 1913 Liberty 5-cent coin that realized $3,737,500, the market for mid-level six-figure coins is expanding. For example, in 2012 at the FUN auctions, at least 85 separate coins crossed the auction block at $100,000 or more; a number far greater than in 2011, and more than double the number in 2010.

Possibly more important than the success of the handful of top rarities, the expanding “middle-market” for very expensive coins bodes well for the future of the rare coin market in that it shows added depth and demand.

Also broadening is the notion of what a million dollar coin can be. No longer is the status reserved for top rarities like 1804 Draped Bust dollars, 1913 Liberty 5-cent coins, 1927-D Saint-Gardens gold $20 double eagles or 1894-S Barber dimes. Today’s well-heeled collectors and investors are expanding their horizons and looking at early rarities in top condition levels as stores of wealth.

Perhaps the recent announcement that the unique 1787 Brasher doubloon with New York metalsmith Ephraim Brusher’s EB counterstamp punched on the eagle’s breast sold in a private transaction for $7.395 million added to bidder confidence that early U.S. coins are a store of value and worthy of bids far exceeding their last trips to the auction block.

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Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and gentleman fine art dealer and appraiser. He is an accredited member of the International Society of Appraisers and sits on its board of directors. Steve is also the associate editor of Coin World. Visit Steve online at www.steveroachonline.com

Looking at Rare Coins as an Investment Class in 2011: Coin on the Wall Street Journal’s Investment Scoreboard

2012-01-09T09:13:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach - www.steveroachonline.com

First published in the January 23, 2012, Issue of Coin World

Each year Coin World provides the Wall Street Journal with a “Classic U.S. Rarities Key-Date Investment Index” for use in its annual investment scoreboard. The scoreboard tracks different investment groups including stocks, bonds, mutual funds, bank instruments such as certificates of deposit, money market funds, precious metals, residential real estate and top investment grade rare coins. The 2011 scoreboard was published in the Dec. 30 year-end review of markets and finance.

Index illustrates change in value of Coin World’s Classic U.S. Rarities Key Date Investment Index since 2005. In 2011, Coin World’s rare coin index gained 4.98 percent overall, compared with a 10.3 percent gain in 2010, and gains of 15.8 percent, 31.9 percent and 8.8 percent in 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively.

Coin World’s rare coin investment index features 82 rare, high-grade coins: 15 copper coins, five copper-nickel pieces, 39 silver coins and 23 gold coins. In 2011 the 82 coins in the basket had a total value of $13,693,625; their value represented a substantial leap over the portfolio’s initial 2005 value of $7,722,435.

The index shows what coin collectors over generations have learned: that rare coins in well-preserved condition appreciate in value over time and can serve as a store of wealth. However, the price performance of rare coins, as for all investments, moves in cycles.

In 2011, Coin World’s rare coin index gained 4.98 percent overall, compared with a 10.3 percent gain in 2010, a 7.9 percent loss in 2009, and gains of 15.8 percent, 31.9 percent and 8.8 percent in 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively.

In 2008, rare coins were among the few investments that registered a gain on the scoreboard, while in 2009 rare coins as measured by the index were among the scoreboard’s worst-performing investments as the housing and investment markets rebounded.

For rare coins in 2011, the copper segment posted a 1.96 percent gain and silver coins showed a .05 percent gain, while rare gold coins increased 8 percent. Overall, the rare coin portfolio’s 4.98 percent gain placed it in the middle of the scoreboard, nearly matching stock performance, outperforming mutual funds, bank instruments, platinum, silver, and residential real estate, but outperformed by bonds and gold.

As talk of rare coin investment funds and record-setting six- and seven-figure sales, both at auction and privately, bring attention to the rare coin market, the high end should continue to appreciate, and the key factors seem to be in place for 2012 to build on the successes of 2011.

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Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and gentleman fine art dealer and appraiser. He is an accredited member of the International Society of Appraisers and sits on its board of directors. Steve is also the associate editor of Coin World. Visit Steve online at www.steveroachonline.com

A global rare coin market test as $180 million to be offered in FUN/NYINC rare coin auctions

2012-01-02T08:47:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach - www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the January 16, 2012, Issue of Coin World

More than $180 million in rare coins may change hands at auctions during the first week of January, as both the Florida United Numismatists show in Orlando, Fla., and the New York International Numismatic Convention, in New York City, will be taking place. The FUN convention’s focus is primarily on U.S. coins while NYINC focuses on coins of the world, ancient to modern.

(Above: A rare silver decadrachm of Akragas, one of 12 known examples, has an estimate of $2.5 million, which if met or exceeded would establish a record price for a coin of ancient Greece.)

Major auctions accompany these conventions. Heritage Auctions anticipates that its FUN auctions may realize more than $80 million, and NYINC chairman Kevin Foley has said that there is a realistic chance that the nine auction houses conducting 16 auction sessions at NYINC may realize more than $100 million.

For comparison, a $180 million total for the FUN/NYINC auctions is roughly equivalent to Christie’s and Sotheby’s auctions for Old Masters Week in New York at the end of January. However, the per-lot price during Old Masters Week is significantly higher, as is the top level of the market for Old Masters where a great painting can achieve $20 million to $30 million.

Yet, the coin market is catching up to other classes of rarities and the market for high-end ancient coins is perhaps at its highest level ever, with global demand lifting prices across the board.

For example, Classical Numismatic Group in association with Nomos AG will offer the Cabinet W collection, 19 lots of masterpieces of Greek coinage that have opening bids together totaling more than $6.7 million.

Included in the collection is a rare silver decadrachm of Akragas, circa 409 to 406 B.C., one of just 12 known examples. It carries an estimate of $2.5 million. If met, it would establish a record price for an ancient Greek coin. It is the third example offered at auction in 31 years, with the last comparable example being sold as part of the famed Nelson Bunker Hunt Collection. That example sold in 1990 for $572,000, a then-record price for an ancient Greek coin.

The sale of 19 singularly rare and beautiful coins together creates an exclusive auction, comprising only the highest quality coins, which has the potential to attract people new to the hobby who want to put money into investments that are the best of their type.

Other six-figure rarities are present from around the globe — China, Russia, South Africa, ancient Rome, and elsewhere — as the coin market expands globally.

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Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and gentleman fine art dealer and appraiser. He is an accredited member of the International Society of Appraisers and sits on its board of directors. Steve is also the associate editor of Coin World. Visit Steve online at www.steveroachonline.com

It takes more than one big transaction to make a market

2011-12-26T10:22:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach - www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the January 9, 2011, Issue of Coin World

The recent announcement that Blanchard and Co. sold the unique 1787 Brasher doubloon with New York metalsmith Ephraim Brasher’s EB counterstamp punched on the eagle’s breast in a private transaction for $7.395 million brings positive attention to the coin hobby, but it is dangerous to read too much into a single transaction.

The nearly $7.4 million paid for the unique 1787 Brasher, Punch on Breast doubloon brought positive attention to the rare coin market, but it takes more than a single transaction to move a market.
Surely the market for aesthetically pleasing, historically significant top rarities is strong across most collectible and fine art fields.

But, at least one article has referenced the coin’s last public sale — when it realized $2.99 million at a Jan. 12, 2005, Heritage auction — to imply that all coins have soared in value in the past seven years. While many coins have, thanks to rising bullion markets, many have not, and the performance of a single super-rarity is not necessarily indicative of the coin market as a whole.

Claims that the Brasher, Punch on Breast doubloon is the “world’s most valuable gold coin” are rather speculative, especially considering that the 1933 Saint-Gaudens $20 double eagle allegedly once owned by Egypt’s King Farouk sold at public auction in 2002 for $7,590,020. That coin remains the only example of that issue currently legal to own and the price stands as the highest price of a rare coin at auction. (The record for a private treaty sale is $7.85 million paid for a 1794 Flowing Hair silver dollar in May of 2010.)

The fact that the Langbord trial brought 10 more 1933 double eagles to light arguably doesn’t impact the market level of the one example of the 1933 double eagle that is legal to own, as long as the government continues to hold the coins and maintain that they will not be sold. If anything, one could argue that the trial and resulting media coverage made the 1933 double eagle even more famous.

Yet, marketing the Brasher doubloon as the world’s most valuable gold coin succeeded in attracting mainstream media attention to the sale, with more than 1,000 articles showing up on Google promoting the sale and, in turn, Blanchard.

No one can challenge that seven-figure sales of trophy coins are exciting and help energize the market for rarities. But it takes more than a single transaction to move a market, and one hopes that this single sale doesn’t inspire investors to jump into the market without first educating themselves on the risks and rewards of rare coin investing.

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Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and gentleman fine art dealer and appraiser. He is an accredited member of the International Society of Appraisers and sits on its board of directors. Steve is also the associate editor of Coin World. Visit Steve online at www.steveroachonline.com

Each issue in the Saint-Gaudens $20 series has a unique story – FUN auction sets tone for year

2011-12-19T06:39:00.000-08:00

Since this site continues to get hundreds of visitors each week from around the world, I will return to dual posting here and on www.steveroachonline.com every Monday. Thanks!

By Steve Roach - www.steveroachonline.com

First published in the January 2, 2011, Special Edition of Coin World

The auctions associated with the Florida United Numismatists convention, set for Orlando Jan. 5 to 8, are major market events that help set the tone for the coin market. The 2011 FUN auctions realized $46 million while the 2010 sales saw $37 million.

The 2012 Heritage auction is anchored by several significant consignments including Dr. and Mrs. Steven L. Duckor’s collection of exceptional Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagles. A collection like this provides a solid introduction to the nuances of the Saint-Gaudens series that make it so popular with novice and advanced collectors alike. Reading the lot descriptions can help contextualize the prices realized.

Regarding a 1913 Saint-Gaudens $20 double eagle graded Mint State 65 — a rare exception in this generally poorly produced issue — the cataloger wrote, “If a grading service could travel back in time to 1913 and set up a grading room in the Mint, there would likely still be only a small number of MS65 or finer coins certified.” The comment reveals a truism: that all coins are not created equal, and each issue in the Saint-Gaudens series has a story.

Some issues were well-produced at the time of issue, such as the 1908 Saint-Gaudens, No Motto double eagle. More than 19,000 examples were discovered in the 1990s with the Wells Fargo Hoard, which transformed the population of this issue with nearly 1,000 coins graded MS-67, 101 graded MS-68 and 10 graded MS-69. Clearly, this was an issue that was well-produced.

Hoards have transformed today’s concepts of rarity within the series. Yet, some issues in the series have been rarely encountered in hoards, such as the 1920-S double eagle, so while they were not considered especially rare in the 1940s and 1950s, today they are relatively rarer as other examples have become more common. In contrast, the 1924-S double eagle was once considered the key to the series — even rarer than the 1927-D coin — until the 1950s when hundreds of examples emerged from European bank vaults. Today, while still extremely rare in high grades, the 1924-S double eagle is no longer a legendary rarity.

Then there are issues with low mintages but extremely high survival rates.

Although just 12,367 1907 Saint-Gaudens, High Relief double eagles were struck, most were saved. Some of today’s most available Saint-Gaudens double eagles — like the 1924 — were mainly produced for international consumption, after domestic demand for new gold coins evaporated. Today’s population of these issues comes largely from European bank holdings. In contrast, although 1.7 million 1929 double eagles were struck, almost the entire mintage was melted, and today just 300 to 400 exist.

A highlight of the FUN auctions that might break the million-dollar mark is an MS-66 1921 double eagle. The other known MS-66 example sold at the 2005 Heritage auction of the Philip H. Morse Collection for $1,092,500.

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Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art appraiser and gentleman dealer. He is an accredited member of the International Society of Appraisers and sits on its board of directors. Steve is also the associate editor of Coin World. Visit Steve online at www.steveroachonline.com

Gold rarities highlight new ANA Pittsburgh coin show

2011-10-10T13:14:00.000-07:00

For the last several months I've been transitioning my coin-related writing to my new web site, www.steveroachonline.com. For the latest post this week and for posts going forward, please visit me online at my new page:

http://steveroachonline.com/the-rare-coin-market-report/gold-rarities-highlight-new-pittsburgh-ana-fall-coin-show/

Wild week for gold and silver challenges "safe-haven" of bullion

2011-10-03T14:32:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the October 17, 2011, Coin World.

The rare coin market got a harsh reality jolt when gold and silver suffered big, sharp drops as a three-day sell-off reminded dealers and collectors alike that what comes up may well go down.

Gold was trading at the $1,800 to $1,900 an ounce level for much of September, but on Sept. 23, gold began to quickly fall from the $1,700 level to the $1,630 level in the afternoon. Overnight in Asian markets, gold dropped to $1,531 an ounce early Sept. 26 before opening at $1,625 in New York, and dipping below $1,600 several times before closing at $1,629.60 an ounce there.

Gold regained a bit of its luster, and found some stability on Sept. 27, opening at $1,668 and closing at $1,649.70 an ounce. However, the concept of gold as a “safe- haven” asset was challenged by the huge swings of the past several days, as some analysts rushed to lower their optimistic year-end estimates for gold.

Silver’s volatility was even more pronounced. After closing on Sept. 21 at $39.62 an ounce in New York, it fell to $30 on Sept. 23, dipping to $26 in foreign markets early Sept. 26, before rebounding to close at $31.21 an ounce on Sept. 26.

Platinum found a 16-month low early morning Sept. 27, falling to $1,471.25 an ounce before rebounding slightly to close at $1,553 on Sept. 27.

As the global economy responds to efforts by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the sagging economy, the rise and fall of the dollar can play havoc on bullion markets. A rally in the dollar was a culprit in the massive bullion sell-off, while a drop in the dollar index on Sept. 27 was credited with helping prompt a recovery from the massive decline.

The factors that have made gold a safe-haven asset — problems with debt both in the United States and in Europe, fluctuations in currencies and general economic concerns — are still very real, as is the recent reminder that gold is not immune to price fluctuations.

The huge swings in precious metal prices affect dealers big and small. The U.S. Mint halted the sale of many of its silver coins for repricing, and some dealers liquidated pre-1965 90 percent silver coins and generic classic U.S. gold at sharp discounts on Sept. 26, likely trying to mitigate damages in the event that gold and silver reverted to their prices of last year at this time, $1,300 and $22 an ounce, respectively.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

The globalization of the rare coin market

2011-09-26T12:52:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the October 10 issue of Coin World

The rare coin market continues to expand globally, while closer to home the fall coin show season is in full swing.

For sure, it’s been a busy month for the coin market. The Long Beach Coin, Stamp and Collectibles Expo was held Sept. 8 to 10, and the next weekend the Whitman Philadelphia Coin and Collectibles Expo took place.

Just a few weeks later is the inaugural American Numismatic Association fall National Money Show, set in Pittsburgh Oct. 13 to 15. The coin market then gets a much-needed breather until the Whitman Baltimore Expo, Nov. 17 to 20.

It’s been a huge few weeks for coin auctions with more than $115 million being sold at auction in the past six weeks, including $71 million sold at the summer ANA auctions in August, $34 million at the Heritage Long Beach auctions, nearly $6 million at Larry and Ira Goldberg Auctions pre-Long Beach sales and $4.5 million at the Stack’s Bowers Galleries Whitman Philadelphia auctions.

The Stack’s Bowers auction saw strong prices for numerous early American pieces that saw bidding that went beyond the realm of the specialists, including a rare 1781 Nathanael Greene at Eutaw Springs medal with documents from the Continental Congress on its presentation that sold for $86,250. Its strong price again confirmed the importance of provenance to today’s collectors.

Also noteworthy, the Heritage world and ancient coin auctions at Long Beach realized $20.4 million, showing the increasing globalization of the rare coin market and the ability of U.S. based coin firms to reach beyond U.S. coins to expand their bidder pool.

Equally impressive is that Heritage noted a 97.74 percent sell-through rate by value — meaning that the top lots found buyers.

Among the rarities changing hands was a legendary Marcus Junius Brutus Ides of March silver denarius, which sold for $546,250. It is undoubtedly among the most famous ancient coins, with a recognizable design that transcends the rare coin market.

As bidders continue to compete for a finite number of rarities, the most logical way for the coin market to expand and for prices to increase is by enlarging the pool of bidders. The global expansion of the coin market will hopefully bring more deep-pocketed international buyers into the U.S. coin market.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Provenance matters when valuing rare coins

2011-09-19T06:07:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the October 3, 2011, Special Edition issue of Coin World

Coin collectors love knowing the provenance — or the ownership history — of the coins in their collection.

An original Proof set offered at the Sept. 8 to 9 Heritage auction at the Long Beach Coin, Stamp and Collectibles Expo in California provided collectors a rare chance to acquire pieces from a nine-coin set that was purchased from the Philadelphia Mint in 1910 and passed down in the same family through the generations.

According to Heritage, the set was purchased by a Mint employee with the last name Wesson, who left the set to his grandchildren. These coins were passed down to the consignor who offered the coins as individual lots, each graded by Numismatic Guaranty Corp.

For a Proof set including gold coins to stay intact for more than a century in generally high grades is rare, and the set offered something for collectors of more modest budgets as well as coins appealing to the monied set.

Three pieces sold for less than $500 each: a Proof 65 1910 Liberty Head 5-cent coin and a 1910 Barber quarter dollar graded Proof, Environmental Damage, each sold for $460, while a Proof 63 Barber dime sold for $488.75.

The noted “environmental damage” on the quarter dollar is perhaps a consequence of the set’s original storage method — a paper envelope likely high in sulfur that reacted with the silver over the years.
A Matte Proof 1910 Lincoln cent graded Proof 64 Red and Brown brought $862.50 and a Proof 64 Barber half dollar sold for $1,322.50.

It was the gold coins that made the set special, and their “freshness” to the market, combined with their quality and documented ownership history, produced very high prices for these four admittedly rare issues.

A Proof 67 1910 Saint-Gaudens $20 double eagle realized $161,000, a 1910 Proof 67 Indian Head $10 eagle brought $138,000, a 1910 Proof 66+ Indian Head $5 half eagle brought $77,625 and a Proof 64+ Indian Head $2.50 half eagle sold for $27,600.

Collectors now covet “Roman Finish” Proofs of 1909 to 1910, as they mediate between the dull Matte Proof finish of the prior several years and the brilliant reflective Proofs of the 19th century. These “Roman gold” coins demand connoisseurship from today’s collectors and they have been called an acquired taste.

Contemporary audiences were resistant to purchase Roman Finish Proofs from the Mint, and the Mint melted many of the examples it struck. While the Proof 1910 double eagle has a published mintage of 167 examples, many were melted, and today, less than half of the original mintage is available for collectors to purchase.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Even as silver market soars, ATB 5-ounce quarters cool off

2011-09-12T06:14:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the September 26, 2011, issue of Coin World

As bullion continues to soar, one series whose fate is tied to silver comprises the America the Beautiful .999 fine 5-ounce silver quarter dollars.

The Mint offers two versions of each issue: bullion examples that are available to authorized purchasers at a $9.75-per-coin premium over the price of silver, and Uncirculated collector versions that receive a “vapor blast” finish, have a P Mint mark and are sold individually by the U.S. Mint directly to collectors.

The release of the 2010 bullion pieces at the start of this year caused a frenzy at the Florida United Numismatists show in January, as the Mint had announced that only 33,000 sets would be produced. A handful of authorized purchasers sold the five-coin sets for around $950 to collectors, the dealers hindered by cumbersome restrictions set by the Mint regarding the distribution of the sets.

At the FUN show, five-coin sets were selling for as much as $2,700, with a wholesale market of $1,800 to $2,000 that lasted for the next month, falling to the $1,500 level by mid-February. Prices have settled at that level today, although as the price of silver has increased from $30 in February to around $42.50 as of Sept. 8, the premium over bullion value has shrunk.

The Mint has increased mintages for the 2011 ATB 5-ounce bullion coins to 126,500.

The 2010-P Hot Springs 5-ounce coin was the first collector version offered by the Mint. Sales began on April 28, with a mintage of just 27,000 and a price of $279.95. These coins took more than a week to finally sell out and collectors complained about ordering problems.

A modest secondary market for the Uncirculated Hot Springs issue has emerged, with examples selling for as much as $400.

The 2010-P Mount Hood National Forest collector 5-ounce coin went on sale July 28 and ordering limits were removed Sept. 6 as coins from the mintage of 27,000 remain available.

Collectors are no doubt considering the cost involved in keeping the set — which will eventually grow to 56 coins by 2021 — current, as well as the hassle in buying the Uncirculated collector coins individually from the Mint.

One hopes that the Mint will continue to work with the mintage levels and ordering mechanisms to make the coins more attractive to collectors going forward.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Gold, silver bullion keeps driving rare coin market

2011-09-05T05:56:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the September 19, 2011, issue of Coin World

Bullion continues to drive the market, and the U.S. Mint’s recent repricing of many of its precious metal coins directly and quickly impacted the secondary market.

For Proof American Eagle silver bullion coins, the Mint’s price increase from the June 30 issue price of $59.95 to $68.45 on Aug. 29 sent secondary wholesale market prices for 1986 to 2011 Proof American Eagle silver coins soaring from $56 to $66 over just 48 hours.

Secondary market prices for Proof American Eagle gold bullion coins have also risen as primary market prices increase, supplies shrink, and rumors continue to circulate that the Mint may shut off the supply of Proof 2011 issues as it did in 2009

The last days of August were rough for gold, as it fell nearly $200 an ounce several days
after reaching an all-time high on Aug. 22 at almost $1,900. It rebounded on Aug. 26 to $1,830 an ounce, then dipped below $1,800 an ounce on Aug. 29.

Silver had larger percentage drops in price, falling from a high of $43.72 an ounce on Aug. 22 to $39.14 on Aug. 25.

At the recently completed American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money, many dealers with brick and mortar storefronts complained of losing business at the show by not being home at their stores.

Shop owners are the busiest they have been in a decade, as the public seeks both to liquidate gold and silver coins and jewelry and to perhaps purchase some gold or silver coins as an investment.

As increased pressure from non-numismatic gold buying storefronts lowers coin and jewelry shop profit margins in some communities, fast gyrations in precious metal prices can have a big impact on a dealer’s bottom line, especially if he or she is already working with relatively small profit margins on scrap/bullion metal purchases.

Platinum found a new three-year high at $1,900 an ounce Aug. 22, as investors realized that platinum — which is rarer and this generation has been more expensive than gold — was priced at the same level.

For example, May 23, 2008, platinum was near its all-time high at $2,170 an ounce while gold on that date was at $924 an ounce. A key difference is that gold is considered a safe haven while platinum demand stems in large part from its many industrial uses.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

ANA coin auction week at $71M, over 16,000 lots offered

2011-08-29T05:56:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the September 5, 2011, Special Edition issue of Coin World

The just-finished American Numismatic Association’s World’s Fair of Money in Rosemont, Ill., was nearly universally praised by dealers as a rousing success, buttressed by a steady rise in gold prices, a huge bourse floor and a very successful official auction by Stack’s Bowers Galleries.

Stack’s Bowers Galleries’ various sessions spanned six separate catalogs. The more than 9,000 lots offered realized slightly more than $40 million, including nearly $30 million in U.S. coins. When combined with the $31 million Heritage auction held before the convention, the auctions offered more than 16,000 lots that sold for more than $71 million in total.

The Aug. 18 Stack’s Bowers Rarities Night catalog introduction called it “a candidate for one of the most memorable sales of our era.” While that statement may inspire debate, the session — designed to compete with Heritage Auction’s Platinum Night sale — offered a diverse group of coins that was the subject of innovative marketing including video reviews of auction highlights by grading service leaders David Hall and Mark Salzberg.

Floor and telephone bidding was notably quiet during the session — perhaps more so than at other recent major auctions — a further sign that collectors and dealers are increasingly turning to the Internet to make their bids.

The fierce competition between Heritage and Stack’s Bowers to fill their August auctions brought more coins to auction than the total offered at the auctions immediately before and during the 2010 ANA convention. The 2010 total results was $60 million.

Several dealers lamented during the show that they found fewer buying opportunities on the bourse floor because so many of the coins were in the auctions, yet many dealers took advantage of auction opportunities to add coins to their inventories and lot viewing was constantly busy.

The Dick Osburn Collection of Seated Liberty half dollars led Rarities Night, and all but a handful of the 152 half dollars sold. Top lots included an 1855-S Seated Liberty, With Arrows half dollar graded Mint State 67 that realized $115,000 and an 1878-S Seated Liberty half dollar in MS-63 that brought $184,000.

Not all coins at auction are reserved for the super-rich, as dozens of quality half dollars in the Osburn Collection were offered without reserve and sold for less than $2,000 - including the pictured 1877 Seated Liberty half dollar graded MS-63 Prooflike that realized $863.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

$31M auction strong start to ANA coin week in Chicago

2011-08-22T06:17:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the September 5, 2011, Special Edition issue of Coin World

The recent volatility in the stock market had little impact on the Heritage sales held in Chicago, Aug. 11 to 12. That serves as a positive sign for what will likely be an exciting American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money.

While not the “official” ANA auction, it realized a healthy $31.345 million with 5,154 bidders competing for 7,370 lots. For comparison, the U.S. coin section of last year’s Heritage ANA auction in Boston realized just over $34 million with 7,133 lots.

Heritage’s top lot in Chicago was an 1855-S Indian Head gold $3 coin graded Proof 64 Cameo by Numismatic Guaranty Corp., described by Heritage as “arguably the single most important coin in the sale.” It realized a robust $1,322,500. At its last auction offering at Stack’s 69th Anniversary Sale in October 2004, it was graded by Professional Coin Grading Service as Branch Mint Proof 63 and sold for $276,000 — further confirming the current market’s taste for flashy, unique rarities.

The noteworthy 1893-S Morgan dollar graded Mint State 67 that was the subject of the Aug. 22 Coin World market analysis found a new home at $546,250, well above the reserve of $340,000 (or $391,000 with the 15 percent buyer’s fee).

Two other gold highlights included an 1863 Coronet $10 eagle graded Proof 65 Deep Cameo that sold for $299,000 (far more than the $138,000 that a similarly graded example sold for at a January 2008 Heritage auction), and a 1796 Capped Bust, No Stars $2.50 quarter eagle graded MS-61 that sold for $276,000.

Perhaps the wildest coin in the sale was a 1814 Capped Bust half dollar pattern struck in platinum with a lettered edge that realized $138,000. The obverse features 33 backward letters “P” punched into the surfaces, and “Platina” is engraved on the reverse. It is unique of the several known platinum patterns for the date in having the punched letters and engraving. With the post-striking impairments — likely contemporary to the coin’s production — it did not receive a numerical grade from NGC. But, as Heritage noted, “condition is all but irrelevant for this example,” and the eye appeal is “decent considering what the coin is.”

Among the major lots that did not sell was a 1921 Saint-Gaudens $20 double eagle graded PCGS MS-64 and a rare 1792 cent pattern graded Fine 15 (one of approximately 10 known) that did not meet its reserve of $379,500 (with the buyer’s fee).

Especially considering the recent financial uncertainty, the fact that the auction had a 95 percent by lot and 91 percent by value sell-through rate is impressive, showing that collectors are still willing to invest in their collections.

***
Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Coins impacted when gold skyrockets to record price

2011-08-15T06:17:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the August 29, 2011, issue of Coin World

Investors went crazy for gold the week starting Aug. 7, building on the last decade of gains to an explosive high of $1,801 an ounce in the futures markets while reaching a New York intra-day high of $1,799.20 an ounce on Aug. 10.

The Aug. 5 downgrade of the United States debt by Standard & Poors Corp. from AAA to AA+ shocked the financial markets, culminating in a 634-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Aug. 8. Amid this uncertainty, investors have turned to gold as a safe haven.

It has been an amazing 12 months for gold. In August 2010 its price was at $1,200 an ounce, moving to $1,300 an ounce in September 2010. Gold started 2011 at the $1,400 an ounce level, reaching $1,500 in late April and then $1,600 in late July.

This increase in demand was partly fueled by optimistic gold forecasts by major banks including JP Morgan, which announced that it expected gold to reach at least $2,500 an ounce by the end of the year, upping its prior estimate of $1,800 an ounce, citing the possibility of another global financial crisis.

Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast on the possibility of a U.S. recession, raising its 12-month target on Aug. 8 from $1,730 to $1,880 an ounce while lowering its outlook for U.S. economic growth in general.

The market for all gold coins rises with the gold tide. Proof American Eagle gold bullion coins are trading on the secondary market at the $1,870 an ounce level as of Aug. 9. Also on Aug. 9, the Mint temporarily suspended the sale of several gold coins including Proof American Eagle 1-ounce gold coins for repricing, moving them up to $1,985 by Aug. 10.

The premiums between grades of generic gold coins have shrunk dramatically in recent weeks. For example, while a “Jewelry” grade Saint-Gaudens $20 double eagle — the lowest commercial grade, reserved for coins that are heavily polished or with other substantial impairments — is $1,830, a Mint State 63 example is just $120 more as of Aug. 9. Last year this gap was more than $300.

What impact this wild gold fluctuation will have on the upcoming American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money is to be determined. While record gold prices bring out a curious public, many coin collectors may be worried at investing in their collections when a dreaded “double dip” recession may be looming.
But how many more examples remain to be discovered is a troubling, lingering question

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Gold records promotes optimism for Chicago ANA coin show

2011-08-08T08:13:00.000-07:00

By By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the Aug. 22, 2011, issue of Coin World

The American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money in Rosemont, Ill., Aug. 16 to 20, is shaping up to be a monster show, fueled by record gold prices, major auctions that could bring more than $60 million and a packed floor of dealers ready to spend money to rebuild inventories.

On Aug. 3, gold hit $1,675 an ounce during the day’s trading — an all time record high — and silver reached almost $42 an ounce. While silver still has room to go to reach the nearly $50 an ounce where it traded several months ago, remember that at this time last year it was trading for $18.42 an ounce.

ANA Executive Director Larry Shepherd has predicted that the show, pre-show and auctions — along with a record-setting 220,000 square-foot bourse (more than double last year’s show in Boston) — will be a grand event in the ANA’s history.

Dealers are hopeful that collectors from around the world will make the trip to the Chicago suburb of Rosemont, and that the ANA’s marketing will target a public willing to sell their coins and cash in on their gold, perhaps sparked by the mainstream news attention that the Langbord 1933 Saint-Gaudens gold double eagle trial generated.

Others may have gotten their first taste of a major coin show when the Central States Numismatic Society show rolled into Rosemont at the end of April, and are now coming back for more.

The bulk of the auction action will be at Stack’s Bowers Galleries Rarities Night auction on Aug. 18 and at Heritage Auction’s Platinum Night sale on Aug. 12. The auctions offer too many rarities to individually list, but an interesting market test will come when Heritage offers an 1893-S Morgan dollar graded Mint State 67 by Numismatic Guaranty Corp.

In 1988 when offered as part of the Norweb Collection, it brought $357,500, a record for any Morgan dollar at the time. When offered at auction in 2008, it failed to find a new home.

The dollar had significant toning when it crossed the auction block in 1988, but when offered 20 years later, it was white and brilliant. Many preferred the former look to the latter.

However, the 2011 photographs of the coin are more handsome than the 2008 photos, so perhaps it will set a record again? On Aug. 7, Heritage posted the reserve on the piece: $340,000 or $391,000 when the 15 percent buyer's premium is included.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Specialist areas provide coins with rich stories

2011-08-01T06:01:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the Aug. 15, 2011, issue of Coin World

“People don’t just want to buy an object, they want to buy a story.”

Nicolas Chow, Sotheby’s head of Chinese works of art — a category that has exploded in the past three years — wrote this, and I find it wonderfully applicable to the coin market.

Perhaps his words resonate most deeply in specialist areas, with dedicated collector bases that are expanding as the Internet makes information more accessible and better connects people with numismatic objects that may intrigue them enough to open their wallets and set new standards for what a “market price” is.

Token collecting is accessible to most anyone as tokens are generally affordable and available. But, there’s also a high-end to the market.

On June 25 at a Steve Hayden auction featuring Civil War, Hard Times, political and merchant tokens and medals, a rare Loomis Hard Times token from Cleveland, Ohio, realized $13,450 (it had an estimate of $8,000 to $12,000).

According to Hayden, it’s one of just five known and has an ownership history going back to 1916. It was not “fresh to market” — it most recently traded at a Jan. 12, 2009, Stack’s Americana sale where it brought $4,600 and was offered at auction in 1999 and 2008 — but its high price in June was a function of the right venue and the right bidders.

That it was holed and worn wasn’t a detriment to the bidders, who had to ask themselves, “Where will I find another one?”

Pioneer gold has a higher entry point in that even the more common, low grade examples are expensive.

Mormon gold has an especially dedicated collector base. Eleven bidders fought for an 1860 Mormon gold $5 coin at the July 8 Heritage Summer Florida United Numismatists auction.

The coin’s design could be described as charming, as the obverse features a seated lion while the reverse shows an eagle behind a beehive.

It graded About Uncirculated 50 and realized a huge $80,500; where another AU-50 example auctioned several months ago at Heritage brought just $51,175.

However, in another example where grades don’t tell the whole story, a visual comparison of the two coins shows that the more recently offered example is of superior quality, with substantially stronger details. Specialists know quality and will pay for it.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Gold Bugs Rejoice as Gold Hits Record Price

2011-07-18T15:48:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the August 1, 2011, issue of Coin World

Gold bugs rejoiced as gold hit a new all-time high on July 13, reaching nearly $1,590 an ounce in New York before closing at $1,583.50.

Gold is up more than 10 percent in 2011, climbing for each of the last 10 years.

The source of the rise — the sixth day in a row where the price of gold increased — was a broad increase in the global demand for gold as a safe haven asset.

The July 13 rise was fueled by comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to Congress that suggested there might be another round of monetary stimulus, combined with Congress’ inability to reach a deal on the debt ceiling, which may mean that the Treasury could run out of money to pay existing loans.

Globally, concern in Europe with Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland and Portugal all experiencing credit problems made precious metals attractive, and silver rose more than 7 percent on July 13 to a high of $38.43 an ounce, an impressive gain but still more than 20 percent below its recent high of nearly $50 an ounce in April.

Comparatively, gold’s July 13 gain of more than $23 an ounce was just a 1.5 percent gain.

The renewed confidence in gold may be what it takes to break the pre-1933 generic U.S. gold coin market out of its recent sleepy period as most generics still trade at multi-year low premiums relative to their melt values.

Further, the widespread media coverage of the Langbord 1933 Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagle trial may bring some new blood into the hobby, interested in the coin’s dramatic story and introduced to the beauty and availability of Saint-Gaudens double eagles.

In other market news, initial buyers of the Mint’s recent offering of Proof 2011-W American Eagle silver dollars were able to make some fast profits. Several big dealers are paying $66 for these coins, which can still be purchased from the Mint for $59.95 as of July 13, but 100-coin ordering limits imposed by the Mint prevent dealers from getting large quantities.

The Proof gold American Eagle market has also seen a boost recently, with dealers paying slight premiums for 1988 to 1991 four-coin sets, and quarter-ounce $10 and half-ounce $25 coins. However, the release of the 2011 issues has added enough supply to make a repeat of last year’s big American Eagle gold coin prices unlikely.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Pricing the priceless: What's a 1933 $20 gold double eagle worth?

2011-07-07T12:13:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the July 25, 2011, issue of Coin World

As the trial to determine who owns the “Langbord 10” 1933 Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagles is scheduled to begin July 7 in a Philadelphia federal courtroom, many are wondering what these coins are worth.

We know what the coins grade since Numismatic Guaranty Corp. reported Nov. 3, 2009, that it had graded one coin Mint State 66, two MS-65, six MS-64 and one with an NGC Uncirculated Details, Improperly Cleaned grade.

When pricing any object, one first looks at comparables — other objects of similar type and quality and the prices they sold for. In 2002, the 1933 double eagle allegedly owned by Egypt’s King Farouk sold for $7,590,000 at auction. It graded MS-65 and was — and currently is — the only 1933 double eagle that can be legally owned by an individual.

So if the coins are ruled private property, are the “Langbord 10” worth around $7 million each?

That’s unlikely. When multiple examples of an object enter a market, the demand/supply ratio changes. While the added publicity helps — meaning that more people know what a 1933 double eagle is and may want one — it’s not enough to compensate for the fact that the coins are not unique.

A parallel in the art market is when an artist’s estate is valued for estate tax purposes, a blockage discount is sometimes used. This assumes that the works are sold at once, depressing the market. To maximize value, prudent estates use long-range marketing, which places objects into the market slowly, responding to the ebbs and flows of demand and artist reputation.

What pricing comparables do the 1933 double eagles have?

Perhaps most obvious is the 1927-D Saint-Gaudens double eagle, considered by some the rarest regular issue coin of the 20th century. Around 10 are collectible today from a mintage of 180,000. They are sold infrequently. The last example at public auction was an MS-66 that realized $1.495 million at a January 2010 auction.

Seeing that the prices for the top objects in many collecting categories are going sky high, with proper marketing to buyers beyond the existing coin-market, the 10 Langbord 1933 double eagle coins could be worth around $2 million each, perhaps more.

But how many more examples remain to be discovered is a troubling, lingering question.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving collectibles and fine art, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Steve Roach will be in Philadelphia to cover the trial of the 10 Langbord 1933 gold $20 double eagles

2011-07-06T17:06:00.000-07:00

The fate of a handful of rare coins, valued at more than $20 million, will be determined in Philadelphia this week. The federal trial that should decide whether a Philadelphia family or the government owns 10 1933 Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagles will begin July 7 in Philadelphia’s U.S. District Court.

Steve Roach – an attorney, America’s expert on the rare coin market and Associate Editor of Coin World, the world’s largest hobby publication, will be attending the trial starting July 11, providing daily updates online at www.coinworld.com and through social media including his Twitter account @roachdotsteve

A rich history

The legal dispute over the 10 1933 Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagles began in 2003 when Joan Langbord, the daughter of Philadelphia coin dealer Israel Switt, allegedly learned that a family safe deposit box contained the coins. She and her two sons, Roy and David, transferred the coins to the U.S. Mint for authentication in September 2004.

In May 2005, the Mint authenticated the coins but refused to return them or initiate forfeiture proceedings. The Langbords sued the government in December 2006. On July 28, 2009, Judge Davis ordered the government to file a forfeiture action, ruling that the coins were unlawfully seized. The government filed its amended complaint for forfeiture and declaratory judgment against the Langbords and the 10 coins on Nov. 10, 2010.

The government’s case attempts to create a framework for the 10 1933 double eagles as being embezzled or stolen from the Mint and wrongfully retained. The Langbords have argued that there was a window of time where people could legitimately obtain 1933 double eagles from the Mint cashier, and that some pieces may have left the Mint that way.

At the heart of the case is the problem of proving actions alleged to have taken place in the 1930s and 1940s. To this end, both sides have retained three experts each, including numismatic experts David Enders Tripp, who is testifying on behalf of the government, and Roger Burdette, the numismatic expert retained by the Langbords.

A landmark case

The case is important for several reasons. Most obvious is that the coins are extremely valuable. On July 30, 2002, at Sotheby’s in New York, more than 700 people watched as six different bidders fought for eight minutes until the 1933 Saint-Gaudens double eagle allegedly once owned by Egypt’s King Farouk sold for $7.59 million, plus $20 to officially monetize the coin. The buyer of that coin has remained anonymous.

If the Langbord coins are legal to own, the Professional Coin Grading Service Million Dollar Coin Club estimates that they would bring $2.5 to $3.5 million each at auction. Numismatic Guaranty Corp. posted a press release to its website on Nov. 3, 2009, announcing that it had graded the Langbord coins. One was graded Mint State 66, two were MS-65, six were graded MS-64 and a single one received an NGC UNC Details, Improperly Cleaned grade. The press release was removed from the NGC website several days later, adding further mystery.

In a larger sense, any court ruling that would question a collector’s right to own coins not issued as legal tender could jeopardize other legendary U.S. rarities like the 1913 Liberty Head 5-cent coin.

***

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

How does a coin's packaging add value to it?

2011-07-04T06:57:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the July 11, 2011, issue of Coin World

In a clever marketing move, Professional Coin Grading Service and Numismatic Guaranty Corp. are grading and encapsulating 2011 American Eagle silver bullion coins struck at the San Francisco Mint with inserts stating that the coins were produced at San Francisco.

However, it raises the question — what premium, if any, should collectors pay for a coin that looks indistinguishable from its West Point Mint counterpart? None of the 2011 American Eagle silver bullion coins struck at either facility bears the S or W Mint mark, and the U.S. Mint has stated that the strikes from the San Francisco Mint will be the same as those produced at the West Point Mint.

That grading services will designate only coins delivered to them in sealed 500-coin boxes as originally received by the U.S. Mint’s authorized purchasers harshly limits the public’s ability to certify these coins themselves.

Any additional value that the market ascribes to these San Francisco Mint coins comes from the original packaging, which is lost upon certification.

Another coin with a value that is strongly dependent on its original packaging is the “Cheerios” 2000 Lincoln cent. In 2000, Cheerios included 10 million 2000 Lincoln cents in special blister packaging with its cereal. These coins are normal — identical to the “regular” issues but for the packaging.

PCGS and NGC will both identify coins coming from the Cheerios promotion on the label, with PCGS calling it a “minor variety.” The cents rose to fame when it was discovered that the majority of the 2000 Sacagawea golden dollars included in just 5,500 of the Cheerios boxes featured a special reverse, commonly called the “Reverse of 1999.”

Cheerios cents sell for around $5 in original packaging, while a non-Cheerios 2000 cent is worth little more than face value. In a slab noting the Cheerios origin, they sell for slight premiums over non-Cheerios cents, although most collectors do not view Cheerios cents as anything special.

My colleague, Bill Gibbs, brought up an apt analogy to another collectible field where packaging matters: originally packaged Hot Wheels miniature model cars. While the No. 225 Hot Wheels from the 2002 series, a mostly red ’57 Chevy, is worth around $3 when it is loose, it is valued at $225 when packaged singularly in its original card, since the majority of the cars were released as part of an extremely limited number of sets. Same car, yet packaging makes one substantially more valuable. Yet, once removed from its package, its value returns to normal.

In August we will look at a similar phenomenon: value created by the PCGS First Strike and NGC Early Release designation program.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Do low premiums for generic U.S. gold coins present buying opportunities?

2011-07-02T07:20:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the July 18, 2011, issue of Coin World

The gold market in June stayed relatively stable at the $1,530 to $1,550 an ounce level before dropping to $1,498 on June 22 and recovering to the $1,510 level at the end of the month.

With gold showing moderate stability, many collectors are wondering if now is a good time to buy generic pre-1933 gold coins, as many pieces are trading at very low premiums over their melt value not seen in the last decade.

These low premiums result from several factors, including an oversupply of coins coming to the United States from European central banks, and fears that gold is currently overpriced and ready for a price correction that will bring down the generic market.

Also, several certified ugly and copper spotted coins have traded sight-unseen at relatively low prices, which can bring down the prices of normal-quality coins, especially for thinly traded issues.

At gold prices of $1,500 to $1,550 an ounce, nearly all Coronet $5 half eagles, $10 eagles and $20 double eagles, Indian Head half eagles and eagles, and Saint-Gaudens double eagles are trading at 5 to 10 percent premiums over their melt value. In early 2009 when spot was at $850, these coins were trading at around 40 percent over melt.

It’s in the certified Mint State generic market that the drops in premiums are most apparent, and double eagles are the most widely traded generic coins. At current levels for MS-62 double eagles, the premium is 10 percent under melt, whereas in early 2009 these were trading at 50 percent premiums. In MS-63, the current premiums raise to 20 percent over melt for Coronet types and just 15 percent for Saint-Gaudens coins.

MS-64 Saint-Gaudens double eagles trade at just a 5 percent premium over MS-63 examples, where in the past five years this premium has ranged between 20 and 50 percent.

In the higher grade generics (especially MS-64 and MS-65), Certified Acceptance Corp. approved coins and Plus graded coins have had substantial traction and market acceptance. There is a large jump in both price and quality between MS-64 and MS-65 double eagles, and the quality of certified MS-64 coins can vary greatly.

So is now a time to buy? It all depends on what you think the gold market will do, and if you think you can select examples that are accurately graded and attractive for the grade.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Heritage and Stack's Bowers compete to fill Summer ANA coin auctions

2011-06-27T06:31:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com

First published in the July 11, 2011, issue of Coin World

As Bowers and Merena merged with Stack’s at the end of 2010, many wondered if the resources of the new Stack’s Bowers Galleries would have a greater shot at gaining market share away from Heritage Auctions than either firm would individually.

The battle between Heritage and Stack’s Bowers Galleries was in full steam in June as the two firms worked tirelessly to fill their summer auctions in conjunction with the American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money in Rosemont, Ill., Aug. 16 to 20.

(Pictured above is a Proof 1975-S Roosevelt No S dim that will be featured in the Stack's Bowers Galleries official ANA World's Fair of Money auction in August)

Stack’s Bowers had an initial advantage in that it is holding the official auctions during the convention. Heritage — which has been selected the ANA’s official auctioneer 42 times, did not win the official rights to the summer ANA auction and will hold their sale prior to the main show, in Rosemont, Ill., Aug. 11 to 12.

Heritage will include a Platinum Night and Stack’s Bowers Galleries will have a Rarities Night, and both firms will offer previews on both coasts.

That the two auction houses are so competitive this season benefits collectors, who can negotiate better rates as these two viable auctions in concert with the convention will get broad participation. Several collectors and dealers have reported receiving very favorable consignment rates as both firms work hard to fill their sales with quality material.

Both firms have something to prove. Heritage benefits from holding a nonofficial ANA auction that can rival if not exceed the official auction, while saving money by not having to share the revenues with the ANA that it would as an official auction. A strong Stack’s Bowers Galleries auction further solidifies the firm’s position as a major competitive auction house, worthy rival to Heritage.

But for those who missed World’s Fair of Money consignment deadlines, more ANA auctions await. A June 3 letter sent to ANA members by ANA President Larry Shepherd promotes Heritage as the official auctioneer for the ANA National Money Show, held in Pittsburgh, Oct. 13 to 15.

Sent while Stack’s Bowers was still finalizing consignments for the official summer ANA sale, the letter reminded readers that Heritage has been named official ANA auctioneer many more times than any of its competitors combined, a message that did Stack’s Bowers few favors while it worked to get material for the official summer ANA sale.

Are coins undervalued as an asset class?

2011-06-20T06:51:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the July 4, 2011, issue of Coin World

In early June, several coin dealers wrote blogs that compared the coin market to the art market — a topic that seems to come up every few years.

To be sure, the overall coin market is small compared with the global art market, although the frequency of $1 million coins trading hands has increased rapidly over the past decade.

On May 29, Laurie Sperber of Legend Numismatics wrote that when compared to other asset classes like art, gems or watches, coins “are so cheap relative to other ‘collectable’ areas it seems like they are forever ‘on sale.’ ” Sperber cited the 1907 Indian Head, Normal Edge gold $10 eagle graded Proof 67 by Numismatic Guaranty Corp. that she purchased from the 2011 Florida United Numismatists Heritage Auction for $2.185 million as an example of a coin with broad appeal (the coin is pictured, Left). She predicted that the beautiful coin, with a historic provenance that traced its ownership to a former Mint director, could easily be worth $15 million in 10 years.

Prices for the rarest objects across most collectible categories have increased in the past decade as billionaires — especially from Russia and China — have sought to diversify their portfolios with alternative investments like collectibles that speak to a buyer’s taste and status.

Dealer Doug Winter asked in a June 1 blog entry to his site if the coin market will ever “catch up” to the art market. He argues that the pool of buyers for a fine art masterpiece is far broader than for a rare coin like a 1913 Liberty Head 5-cent piece. Most great U.S. coins are marketed to American coin buyers, while the market for ancient art or a Picasso painting is global.

The coin market has few institutional buyers like museums that can permanently remove items from the market. While museums will deaccession (sell) minor works, they rarely sell major works to nonmuseum buyers on the open market. Thankfully, at least a dozen museums have large acquisition budgets or wealthy trustees who can come up with substantial amounts for a masterwork that fills a gap in a collection, so the supply of great paintings is always shrinking.

A limiting factor for coins is that they don’t display well to noncollectors. Winter gets to the point by asking, “When’s the last time you went to your local museum to see a coin exhibit?”

Coins cannot adorn as gems or watches can, cannot decorate as antiques and art can, and don’t look cool in a garage like a classic car. Yet, they are portable and the transaction costs of selling most coins is substantially less than with other rare objects.

So are rare coins cheap, somewhat undervalued or overvalued?

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Top rarities like 1794 silver dollars in high demand at $22M+ Long Beach coin auctions

2011-06-13T06:20:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com

First published in the June 27, 2011, issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com/

Three firms held auctions immediately before and during the June 2 to 4 Long Beach (Calif.) Coin, Stamp & Collectibles Expo, which in total realized more than $22 million.

The pre-Long Beach auction by Ira and Larry Goldberg Auctioneers realized more than $8 million, while a May 29 Bonhams and Butterfields auction saw nearly $1 million. The Long Beach Heritage Signature U.S. Coin auction generated almost $13 million with a sell-through rate of 96.36 percent.

The coin market seems starved for major rarities, and the top lot of the Long Beach auctions was a rare 1794 Flowing Hair dollar offered in the Goldberg sale. The coin is graded About Uncirculated 58 premium quality by Professional Coin Grading Service and is adorned with a Certified Acceptance Corp. sticker. It sold for $575,000, within the pre-auction estimate of $500,000 to $600,000.

The coin was formerly in the collection of the Connecticut Historical Society and the catalogue description included a note that Martin Logies believed the coin could “easily qualify as an MS-61.”

Logies is numismatic curator of the Cardinal Collection Educational Foundation, which purchased a PCGS Specimen 66 example of a 1794 Flowing Hair dollar for a reported $7,850,000 in a 2010 private transaction. Later that year on Aug. 7, a Mint State 64 1794 dollar sold at a Bowers and Merena auction for $1,207,500.

But not all high-end coins are bringing their owners substantial returns. An MS-65 1795 Flowing Hair dollar was the top lot in the Heritage Long Beach auction, selling for $253,000. While a quarter of a million dollars for a coin is undoubtedly impressive, the same coin sold at auction for $230,000 as part of the Cardinal Collection in June 2005 by American Numismatic Rarities. Although the 2011 price was higher than the 2005 price, after transaction fees are considered, the owner realized a loss.

It is one of two known gem examples of the die variety among eight to 10 Mint State pieces known, according to Heritage.

Upcoming major shows include the Whitman Coin and Collectibles Baltimore Expo, set for June 16 to 19, and the summer Florida United Numismatists Show in Orlando, scheduled for July 7 to 9.

The market then functionally takes a summer break until the American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money in the Chicago area Aug. 16 to 20, with an affiliated pre-show scheduled for Aug. 13 to 15.

eBay online coin auctions continue to surprise as some GSA Morgan silver dollars soar

2011-06-06T06:00:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the June 20, 2011, issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com/

Sometimes, the kind of holder that a coin is in can have a dramatic impact on its price. Every once in a while collectors go crazy for a coin on eBay.

That happened on May 29 as 13 bidders placed 39 bids for a lot described as a “Unique 1880-O Non-CC GSA Hardpack Morgan Dollar.” The coin sold for $13,113, with three bidders bidding above the $10,000 level. (Images courtesy of Bryan Sonnier).

Many silver dollars — typically from the Carson City Mint — were released by the General Services Administration in the 1970s. The coins, housed in black hard plastic (hardpack) or soft plastic (softpack) holders once generally traded for little premiums.

That changed when Numismatic Guaranty Corp. began grading GSA Morgan dollars submitted to NGC in their original black holders, with NGC placing the coin’s grade on a label that goes outside the black holder.

The seller of the 1880-O Morgan dollar, Bryan Sonnier of Carson City Collectibles, has been collecting and studying Carson City GSA Morgan dollars for more than 20 years. He wrote in an email that he was very confident that likely no other 1880-O Morgan Dollars in the GSA black holders exist.

While he estimated before the auction that it would realize $7,500 to $10,000, he was surprised by the five-figure result.

On May 22, Sonnier offered a GSA 1882-O Morgan dollar in a GSA “hardpack” holder that realized $6,600.69 with 49 bids from 10 different bidders. However, that coin was not unique, as NGC had already graded one in a GSA holder.

Not all non-CC hardpack GSA Morgan dollars achieve crazy prices. In a May 25 eBay auction, Sonnier offered a Mint State 1884-O Morgan dollar in a GSA hardpack that realized $243.50 — still far more than the $50 that this coin would typically sell for as a Mint State Morgan dollar.

Rarely, the odd GSA coin pops up, such as a circulated 1864 Seated Liberty dollar in a GSA “softpack” that realized $10,301 on April 24 with 51 bids. The coin had a long history and the lot included associated memorabilia.

Another type of black holder also gets attention when it is offered. In late 2010, a 1924 Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagle in a Mint State 62 NGC “Black” slab — one of the firm’s earliest slabs — sold for $3,805 while recently certified NGC MS-62 examples were trading at $1,600.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Broad demand seen for Walking Liberty half dollars

2011-05-30T08:52:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the June 16, 2011, issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com/

Demand is broad for Mint State Walking Liberty half dollars and many issues have seen prices increase steadily in the last month.

As of May 25, there are at least five wholesale buyers who are aggressively buying MS-64 to MS-66 Walking Liberty half dollars in large quantities to fill orders. At the wholesale level, MS-64 examples are priced at $56, MS-65 pieces are at $131 and MS-66 coins are being sought in large quantities for $190 each.

While silver’s recent drop cooled off the overheated generic Mint State Morgan and Peace dollar market, Walking Liberty half dollars were unaffected.

The retail prices that collectors are paying for the half dollars have not yet caught up to the wholesale demand. For example, at a May 24 Heritage Internet Coin Auction with broad participation, a mostly brilliant 1947-D Walking Liberty half dollar graded MS-65 by Numismatic Guaranty Corp. realized just $126.50 over eight bids, despite several wholesale dealers offering to buy any brilliant MS-65 example for $131 (pictured left, images courtesy of Heritage Auctions).

To contrast, a toned 1940 Walking Liberty half dollar in NGC MS-65 realized just $104. As with the recent action for generic Morgan and Peace dollars, demand is reserved for coins that are untoned, or very nearly so.

For sure, the market for generic Walking Liberty half dollars is smaller than for Morgan and Peace dollars, simply because there are fewer examples. It is substantially more challenging to find 1,000 MS-65 Walking Liberty half dollars when compared to Morgan dollars in the same grade.

The market’s appetite for Walking Liberty half dollars goes up to more expensive issues. A look at recent auction results reveals that there is especially strong demand for the tough early Denver Mint issues in MS-62 through MS-64.

At the same time, buyers have become increasingly choosy with conditionally rare late-date (post-1933) issues. Wide price ranges at auction for coins of the same date, grade and grading service show that buyers are looking for more than just a grade when selecting coins for grading service’s registry sets.

At Heritage Central States Numismatic Society convention auctions in late April, just five of the 310 Walking Liberty half dollars offered failed to find bidders — each was a high-grade late-date issue. Buy-ins like these are often the result of the consignor having more enthusiasm about a coin’s value than the bidding audience

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Coin market affected by silver's recent tumble

2011-05-23T05:53:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the June 6, 2011, issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com/

The gold and silver markets have been in a state of flux for the past several weeks, with silver experiencing a severe correction in recent weeks.

On April 28, silver closed in London at $48.70 an ounce after reaching almost $50 an ounce during the day's trading. Just a week later on May 6, silver closed in London at $34.20 an ounce and on May 17, it hovered near $34 an ounce.

Gold has shown more stability, its price ascent also having been more gradual than silver's. When silver started to fall at the start of May, gold held its own until May 5, gradually dropping from its May 4 close of $1,541. By midday May 17, gold had declined to $1,470.

In the past several weeks, demand for generic Morgan dollars – a market sector that has shown dramatic gains in the past several months – has slowed as market makers stopped buying them in quantities. The primary demand for these coins came not from collectors, but from telemarketers, and the sharp decline in silver has made these relatively common coins a tougher sell at current levels to noncollectors who may be hesitant to invest in silver coins now.

To capitalize on the earlier dollar craze, Numismatic Guaranty Corp. had begun offering a new on-site grading tier at $30 for Morgan and Peace dollars valued at $500 and under, during major shows such as the June Whitman Baltimore Coins and Collectibles Expo.

Perhaps most sensitive to price fluctuations are Mint State 63 and MS-64 Morgan dollars. As prices increased, the grading services received an influx of Mint State examples for grading, with the majority of these coins grading from MS-60 to MS-64, meaning that the supply for MS-65 and MS-66 coins is not increasing in a meaningful way.

Proof American Eagle silver coins have also declined in price in the wholesale markets over the past two weeks. While on May 2 major buyers were paying $95 for examples with original packaging, on May 17 many of the major buyers stopped buying and the few continuing buyers were paying $73. For comparison, in mid-March these were trading at $50 each while silver was trading around the $35 an ounce level. The U.S. Mint is scheduled to release Proof 2011-W American Eagle silver coins on June 30, which will further reduce the pressure on the prices for these coins.

The recent influx of Proof 2011-W American Eagle gold coins, which first went on sale April 21, has not put much of a damper on that market, as prices had stayed reasonable and had not jumped as dramatically as the Proof silver American Eagles. At the peak on May 2 dealers were paying $1,750 an ounce for the gold issues, but on May 17 prices fell to $1,675 an ounce.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

The strong market for classic Proof U.S. coins

2011-05-16T07:13:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the May 30, 2011, issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com/

The Heritage Platinum Night auction on April 28 was led by gold coins, with classic U.S. Proof gold coins achieving the six highest prices in the sale. The auction was held in conjunction with the Central States Numismatic Society convention, held in Rosemont, Ill., April 27 to 30.

The second highest price was $230,000 for an 1860 Coronet $20 double eagle graded Proof 64 cameo by Numismatic Guaranty Corp. The last time it crossed the auction block was in 2004, when it was housed in a Professional Coin Grading Service Proof 63 cameo holder and realized $94,875. That coin, along with many others in the Heritage auction, were from the Slotkin Family Trust Collection, a collection of nearly 300 Proof classic U.S. coins, of which more than 90 percent were graded by NGC.

Before the auction, some questioned if the coin market could absorb this many costly, very high grade Proof coins, most with cameo and deep cameo designations, many of which had been purchased by the consignor in the past five years.

More than 100 separate coins from the Slotkin Collection sold for more than $10,000, and more than 5,500 bidders participated in the auction, showing the depth of the current coin market even at price levels beyond the pocketbook of the average collector.

Not all coins in the auction, however, brought prices that were higher than realized in the most recent previous appearance. An 1896 Barber quarter dollar, graded Proof 69H ultra cameo by NGC, realized $29,900, less than the $34,500 that the consignor purchased it for in January 2009.

On the CSNS bourse floor, dealers lamented what they saw as a lack of opportunities to buy coins to add to their inventories.

Fresh material is a problem in the current market.

One significant gold dealer wrote about the show, in a comment attached to his new purchases, that it "was characterized by an extreme lack of fresh material and it took four solid days of 'pounding the pavement' and using all of our contacts to find interesting coins for sale."

His comments were echoed by several other dealers, although the sale of a substantial multimillion dollar U.S. coin type set at the show provided some fresh material that was quickly absorbed into the market, and serves as a reminder that all coins don't necessarily pass through auctions.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Crazy precious metal markets and a robust Central States show

2011-05-10T06:33:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com/
First published in the May 16 issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com/

As this is being written April 27, there is lots of optimism about the Central States Numismatic Society's convention in Rosemont, Ill., from April 27 to 30.

Dealers are excited about the show being in an easy-to-get-to location, in a region with a large collector base and a major airport. With gold and silver at highs not seen in a generation, many dealers are hoping that some new buyers might be making the rounds of the bourse floor, looking for ways to diversify their investment portfolios with coins.

The CSNS show can serve as a guidepost for the market, with a major Heritage Auction Galleries Platinum Night.

In 2008, the CSNS show was held in Cincinnati, and many consider that show to represent the low point of the coin market in the last five years.

While the Heritage auction lacks a big star like the 1804 Draped Bust dollar that headlined the firm's Cincinnati auction – and realized $3,737,500 – the Rosemont auction has a broad selection of coins that will test the resilience of the market for collectible coins at nearly all levels.

The strongest test may come for hundreds of classic Proof gold and silver coins. Many of these coins were purchased at auction in the past decade, allowing for interesting price comparisons.

In other news, precious metals started off the week with a bang.
On April 25, silver traded at almost $50 an ounce and came within a dollar of its 1980 all-time high. That same day, gold for June delivery in New York hit an all-time high of $1,518.32 an ounce before retreating to $1,497.50 the next day.

After the price of silver almost hit $50 an ounce, many silver investors cashed in their profits and waited for the April 27 announcement on new federal interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting.

The Fed's announcement suggested that interest rates would remain low for the near future.
On April 27 the price of gold jumped nearly $20 an ounce to an all-time high of $1,531.40 an ounce during the day's trading in New York City while silver ranged from a low of $44.86 to $48.32 an ounce during the day's trading.

As the price of gold and silver rose, the dollar hit a new 2.5 year low. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the dollar against other major currencies, has dropped 10 percent in the last 12 months.

Rising gold, silver prices set to lift up Central States coin show and auction

2011-05-02T13:31:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the May 16, 2011, issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com/

As this is being written April 27, there is lots of optimism about the Central States Numismatic Society's convention in Rosemont, Ill., from April 27 to 30.

Dealers are excited about the show being in an easy-to-get-to location, in a region with a large collector base and a major airport. With gold and silver at highs not seen in a generation, many dealers are hoping that some new buyers might be making the rounds of the bourse floor, looking for ways to diversify their investment portfolios with coins.

The CSNS show can serve as a guidepost for the market, with a major Heritage Auction Galleries Platinum Night.

In 2008, the CSNS show was held in Cincinnati, and many consider that show to represent the low point of the coin market in the last five years.

While the Heritage auction lacks a big star like the 1804 Draped Bust dollar that headlined the firm's Cincinnati auction – and realized $3,737,500 – the Rosemont auction has a broad selection of coins that will test the resilience of the market for collectible coins at nearly all levels.

The strongest test may come for hundreds of classic Proof gold and silver coins. Many of these coins were purchased at auction in the past decade, allowing for interesting price comparisons.

In other news, precious metals started off the week with a bang.

On April 25, silver traded at almost $50 an ounce and came within a dollar of its 1980 all-time high. That same day, gold for June delivery in New York hit an all-time high of $1,518.32 an ounce before retreating to $1,497.50 the next day.

After the price of silver almost hit $50 an ounce, many silver investors cashed in their profits and waited for the April 27 announcement on new federal interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting.

The Fed's announcement suggested that interest rates would remain low for the near future.

On April 27 the price of gold jumped nearly $20 an ounce to an all-time high of $1,531.40 an ounce during the day's trading in New York City while silver ranged from a low of $44.86 to $48.32 an ounce during the day's trading.

As the price of gold and silver rose, the dollar hit a new 2.5 year low. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the dollar against other major currencies, has dropped 10 percent in the last 12 months.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Silver’s bull market lifts Morgan dollar prices higher

2011-04-25T09:06:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the May 9, 2011, issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com/

Morgan dollars have been one of the coin market's main beneficiaries of the renewed interest in silver, as the prices for common examples have soared in the last year.

This week silver continues its rapid ascent toward its 1980 high of just over $50 an ounce, topping $43 an ounce on April 19, although more people are asking how long silver's bull run can last.

Dealers are seeking quantities of these coins for purchase, in grades from cull to Mint State 67, to fill orders. While common dates have become more expensive, many Morgan dollars that once traded at premiums are now, relatively, more affordable.

As of April 19, major market makers were paying $97 for 1878 to 1904 dated MS-64 examples certified by either Professional Coin Grading Service or Numismatic Guaranty Corp, $202 for MS-65 coins, $365 for MS-66 examples and $645 for MS-67 pieces provided they were untoned, or nearly so.

Just one month earlier when silver was at the $35 level, these Morgan dollars were trading at $77, $156, $252 and $585 respectively.

Contrast this to a year ago when silver was around $18 an ounce and the same coins were trading at $37, $47, $125, $220 and $650 respectively.

Speculators, market observers and curious collectors are all wondering if the rapid rise in prices for the lower grades of Mint State generic dollars is sustainable.

A silver lining is that the premiums for many issues once considered "better" have simply evaporated.

At the MS-64 level, 1882, 1883 and 1888-O Morgan dollars, which once traded for $20 premiums, now trade at around the same price as a common example like the 1881-S dollar.

The 1903 Morgan dollar once enjoyed a $40 premium in MS-64 over common coins and that premium has been reduced sharply to just a few dollars.

In MS-65 the premiums for other issues evaporate including the 1883-O dollar, which lost its $50 premium and now trades as a generic coin.

The 1898 Morgan dollar, which once traded at a $75 premium, now trades at just a $10 premium over a generic coin. In terms of relative rarity, PCGS and NGC have certified just 4,251 examples of the 1898 dollar in MS-65 in contrast to more than 90,000 MS-65 1881-S dollars. Yet, with some looking, a collector can now purchase both for around the same price.

While these coins have not gotten any rarer or more common, the demand for certified generic dollars has presented some buying opportunities for savvy collectors to buy scarcer issues for the same price as a common example.

Down the grade scale, some tougher Morgan dollars look like fantastic values.

With common Very Good Morgan dollars trading at $34, prices for issues like the 1894-O and the 1894-S dollars have not changed much in the past year and now can be purchased for less than $10 more than the most common example.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

What $41/ounce silver means for collectors

2011-04-18T11:02:00.001-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the May 2, 2011, issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com/

With silver now hovering at $41 an ounce as of April 14, many segments of the market are affected. These include obvious bullion-sensitive issues, such as Morgan and Peace dollars, American Eagle silver bullion coins and common 90 percent silver pre-1965 U.S. coins.

However, silver's ascent impacts other collecting areas.

Many Proof sets have experienced substantial gains in the last month including Prestige Proof sets that include a 90 percent silver commemorative dollar, Proof sets from 1959 to 1964, as well as the 1992 and later Silver Proof sets, and State Quarter Silver Proof sets. The prices of all of these have gone up substantially with silver's rise, many trading for little more than their silver value.

With silver at $41 an ounce, 90 percent silver coins trade at 30 times face value, meaning that a 90 percent silver half dollar is valued at around $15 for its silver alone.

This bullion premium nearly eliminates any collector premium that 1892 and 1893 World's Columbian Exposition as well as Booker T. Washington Memorial half dollars of 1946 to 1951 and Washington Carver commemorative half dollars of 1951 to 1954 have enjoyed.

Many modern commemorative dollars are now trading for melt value, as are examples of the 1982 George Washington 250th Anniversary of Birth commemorative half dollar.

The 1959 to 1964 Uncirculated Mint sets, containing $1.70 face value in silver coins, are worth $51 for their silver content alone.

One wonders how many original sets are now destined to go to the melting pot and how many will be left after the market for silver cools down.

It goes without saying that collector opportunities are plentiful, as dealers right now don't have time to sort out many silver coins to search for better dates.

Dealers who are buying and selling bullion coins have to move fast, as profit margins are low and the risk for a market correction looms.

Simply put, most dealers don't have time to carefully sort what comes in because they are in such a rush to get the coins out of the store to cash in on profits.

With people continuing to open up grandpa's piggy bank and take advantage of the 31-year-high price for silver, who knows what may turn up with some careful looking.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Gold hits another record while silver expands on its 31-year high!

2011-04-11T10:15:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the April 25, 2011, issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com/

Mainstream news attention related to the rise in precious metal prices contributed to drive the public to a very robust Baltimore Whitman Coin and Collectibles Expo, held March 31 to April 3. Reports were nearly universally positive, with dealers using the words "stunning" and "terrific" to describe the convention.

Baltimore was characterized in one report as "the perfect venue for a coin show," and Whitman was roundly praised for putting on a smoothly-run show that was well-attended by a public ready to buy and sell.

The sharp increase in demand for bullion coins has raised the premiums on American Eagle bullion coins with one major dealer selling 2011 American Eagle silver bullion coins at spot price of silver plus 3.75 percent and 2011 American Eagle gold bullion coins at spot plus $3.25.

With silver at $40 an ounce, this means that the wholesale price of a silver American Eagle is $43.25.

The market for Proof silver American Eagles shows little sign of stopping, with wholesalers paying $67 each for coins in original packaging — up from $60 last week and $54 last month — as demand for these coins seems to be nearly insatiable.

With all the attention paid to bullion coins at the moment, one area not keeping pace is pre-1933 U.S. gold coins.

One major retailer sent out a client advisory email, to a broad group of its clients, titled "Pre-1933 U.S. gold coin premiums at historic lows." The notice advised customers to trade American Eagle gold bullion coins, Canadian Maple Leafs, South African Krugerrands and gold bars for classic U.S. gold coins.

This same dealer was offering Coronet $10 eagles in circulated grades at substantial discounts, noting that, historically, two gold $10 coins normally would trade for a premium over one Coronet $20 double eagle, suggesting that at current prices, Coronet gold eagles are undervalued.

Certified Mint State Morgan dollars continue to see substantial price increases, with wholesalers paying $90 for MS-64 coins, $195 for MS-65 coins and $305 for MS-66 examples, provided that the coins are untoned, or nearly so.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Big demand for pre-1965 90% silver coins

2011-04-04T19:44:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the April 18, 2011, issue of Coin World

Pre-1965 90 percent silver U.S. coins are especially hot, while silver U.S. coins that aren't so familiar to buyers — such as post-1992 Proof 90 percent silver coins from Silver Proof sets — are trading at discounts to melt value.

For example, on March 28, one dealer advertised on a trading network a bag of 4,000 Proof 2010-S 90 percent silver Washington quarter dollars — $1,000 face value — for $26,300, lowering it later in the day to under melt value at $25,999.

Another dealer was offering $1,000 in face value of modern Proof 90 percent silver coins for 99 percent of the melt value.

At the same time, market makers were paying $26,200 for $1,000 face value 90 percent silver bags.

The current market is allowing for a slight premium for all 90 percent half dollar bags, and a slightly greater premium for Walking Liberty silver half dollar bags.

It is discounting 40 percent silver bags slightly along with Roosevelt 90 percent silver dime bags.

Prices for Proof American Eagle silver bullion coins have exploded in the last several weeks. As of March 28, several wholesale dealers were advertising buy prices of $60 each for examples with original Mint packaging.

This quick price advancement has effectively removed premiums for the Proof 1993-P, 1995-P, 1996-P and 1997-P issues. These dates always enjoyed substantial premiums over the more common dates, but not anymore.

The sole issue that now trades for a premium — excluding the rare Proof 1995-W American Eagle silver dollar — is the Proof 1994-P silver American Eagle, which still enjoys a $20 to $30 premium over the common dates.

According to its Web site, the U.S. Mint is scheduled to release Proof 2011-W American Eagle silver dollars on June 30, meaning that the existing supply won't be increasing for at least three months.

Even Proof 2010-W American Eagle silver dollars are now trading at the same level as the rest of the 1986 to 2008 Proof issues.

Proof 2011-W American Eagle gold coins are scheduled to be released April 21, and several market makers have reported a softening of demand for Proof gold American Eagles in anticipation of a flood of 2011 issues.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Shortage of great objects affect high-end art, rare coin markets

2011-03-28T13:19:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the April 11, 2011, issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com

The same thing could be said about the American Numismatic Association National Money Show – held March 17 to 19 in Sacramento, Calif., and the European Fine Art Fair held the same week in Maastricht, the Netherlands: great and fresh objects are getting increasingly hard to find in this market.

From the Maastricht reports, it seems that many of the big paintings, including a $47 million Rembrandt painting that last sold at auction in 2009 for $33.2 million, had been previously offered in the last several years (pictured below). The lack of fresh material has led many market observers to conclude that people are holding onto their treasures rather than selling them.

At the Heritage auction held at the ANA show, the top lot was familiar – a 1796 Draped Bust, Small Eagle half dollar graded About Uncirculated 58, which realized $207,000. That was the same price that it realized the last time it crossed the Heritage auction block in August 2008, at the ANA World’s Fair of Money auction, meaning after the 15 percent buyer’s fee is taken into account, the seller encountered a loss.

Yet, fresh objects that are at the top of their class and of documented rarity and quality continue to exceed expectations.

At European Fine Art Fair, many of the best works are sold at the VIP preview, an event held before "regular people" even get a chance to see them. The reports of works sold early had a common denominator: they were high-quality, rare and not previously offered in recent memory.

Just one other six-figure coin sold at the Heritage ANA auction – a 1792 Washington, Roman Head cent graded Proof 64 brown (pictured right).

While part of the English Conder token series, it has popularly been collected as part of the Colonial coin market segment, its acceptance confirmed by its inclusion in A Guide Book of United States Coins, or the "Red Book."

It realized $100,625 – substantially more than the $66,125 that a Proof 61 brown example realized in a January Heritage auction.

Nearly every post-ANA dealer report noted that good quality and rare coins are becoming hard to buy in this market and dealers are having trouble building inventories of the tough and handsome coins that collectors covet.

Most great coins, and great objects of most collectible asset classes, are in secure hands right now and not moving in the markets.
Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

2009 Ultra High Relief gold $20 on the move upward

2011-03-21T08:19:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com

First published in the April 4, 2011, Special Edition of Coin World

One of the bigger winners among the recent issues produced by the U.S. Mint is the 2009 Saint-Gaudens, Ultra High Relief gold $20 double eagle.

The coins first went on sale the week of Jan. 22, 2009, at an issue price of $1,189.

The price of gold was $860 an ounce then, meaning that the coins were initially selling for a 38 percent premium to their gold content.

Almost immediately after the coins were released – with strict ordering limits – market makers were paying $1,650 each for the coins.

A year later, in February 2010, demand cooled. Mint State 69 coins and those in original packaging were trading at the $1,700 level, carrying a 54 percent premium, as gold had moved up to $1,100 an ounce.

Now in March 2011, the market for these coins has expanded greatly.

The mintage of 115,178 coins is well-distributed, and new collectors are being introduced to the coin for the first time. Add to the mix the increased attention that gold has been getting, and one sees the prices for this one-year type coin rising fast.

In the retail market, based on completed transactions on eBay, collectors are paying a premium for Ultra High Relief pieces with full original U.S. Mint packaging including the rosewood box, the accompanying book and the coins in Mint capsules, and for coins graded Mint State 69 by either Numismatic Guaranty Corp. or Professional Coin Grading Service.

Recently completed “Buy it Now” sales on eBay show multiple transactions at the $2,450 to $2,600 level for UHR coins in Mint packaging, and certified MS-69 coins are selling at the $2,300 to $2,500 level.

Certified MS-70 examples are generally selling at the $2,700 to $2,800 level.

With gold at $1,430 an ounce on March 14, a $2,500 price for a UHR represents almost a 75 percent premium to the gold content.

Many of the highest prices for these coins have been for NGC MS-70 Prooflike examples, which have sold on eBay for $4,500 to $5,000 recently.

The Prooflike coins represent a small percentage of the overall population.

While NGC has graded 14,220 Ultra High Relief coins, only 1,429 have been graded Prooflike. Of those 1,429 Prooflike UHR coins, 749 were graded MS-70 Prooflike. Of all the 14,220 NGC-graded UHR coins, 7,570 were graded MS-70.

That plenty of NGC Prooflike UHR coins are available is a good thing, indicating sufficient quantities exist to create a market, and thus demand, for the NGC Prooflike certified coins.

Both PCGS and NGC use the PL designation for this issue.

Another thing that the Ultra High Relief coin has going for it is that the Mint obviously took great care in producing these beautiful coins.

Coins in slabs designated NGC Early Release and PCGS First Strike are also trading for modest premiums to coins without such designations.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Silver and gold continue their bull runs; Proof American Eagles gain

2011-03-14T14:52:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the March 28, 2011, issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com/

Silver topped its 31-year high again, closing at $36.60 an ounce March 7 in the London market. Gold closed at $1,437.50 March 7.

Investors are clamoring over hard assets like bullion, driven by instability in North Africa and the Middle East, concern about debt in European countries like Greece and Portugal, along with statistics that often paint a grim picture of the U.S. debt level.

The United States recorded its biggest monthly deficit ever on March 7, estimating a $223 billion deficit for February. It marked the 29th straight month of deficits.

International markets responded with weakened demand for the U.S. dollar, which in turned drove up prices for gold and silver.

On March 8, gold and silver prices declined a bit as the price of oil dropped on speculation that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would increase production to meet increased demand.

Several major wholesale dealers have stepped up their pricing for Proof American Eagle gold bullion coins with original Mint packaging including cardboard outer box, velvet inner box and certificate of authenticity.

On March 1, one major wholesale dealer was paying $1,585 an ounce for these coins, then raised the prices to $1,600 an ounce, and then on March 7 raised them again, to $1,650 an ounce.

Proof American Eagle gold bullion coins with original Mint packaging are currently drawing strong market attention.

In contrast, the same buyer is purchasing Proof American Eagles with incomplete Mint packaging or in third-party grading service slabs for $1,500 to $1,525 an ounce.

What a difference a box or a certificate of authenticity makes!

Just a box and papers for a 1986 American Eagle 1-ounce gold $50 coin – with no coin – can trade for as much as $150, and a market exists for other years at the $100 level.

Proof American Eagle silver bullion coins are stable in wholesale markets at the $51 level as the additional supplies of the 2010 issues seems to have taken the edge off of the supply crunch that brought these to the $57 level last year.

The market does differentiate between the 1986 to 2008 issues and the 2010 issues, preferring the earlier issues to a certain extent.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Gold hits all time record high; silver dollars still blazing

2011-03-07T05:15:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com

First published in the March 21, 2011, issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com/

Gold reached an all time high on March 2, breaking $1,440 an ounce and hitting $1,441.30 an ounce during the day's trading in the New York bullion markets before closing at $1,435.70.

Silver continued to build on its gains from last week, reaching a high of $35.02 an ounce during the day before closing at $34.68 an ounce.

Unlike gold, which is at an all-time high, silver has some room to go to reach the $50 an ounce that it briefly traded for in 1980 before crashing to $16 an ounce at the end of the year and dropping to less than $5 an ounce in 1982.

In what feels like a broken record over the past month, Mint State generic Morgan dollars, certified by either Professional Coin Grading Service or Numismatic Guaranty Corp., continue to reach even higher prices and trade at substantial volumes.

Dealers are now offering $59 for MS-63 coins, $79 for MS-64 dollars and $155 for MS-65 Morgan dollars. These are relatively steep increases from last week's wholesale prices of $53, $73 and $146, respectively, which themselves were jumps up from the week before.

In wholesale trading, Peace dollars are going for $53 for MS-63 examples, $61 for MS-64 coins and $130 for MS-65 pieces. Just last week they were $46, $54 and $123, respectively. (Pictured is a MS-65 Peace dollar certified by PCGS, image courtesy of HeritageAuctions.com)

Some major coin shows are approaching that will test the market.

The American Numismatic Association National Money Show, also known as the Midwinter ANA, will be conducted March 17 to 19 in Sacramento, Calif., followed by the Whitman Coin and Collectibles Expo in Baltimore March 31 to April 3.

Some dealers won't be attending the ANA National Money Show because of concern about California's tax laws under which conducting too much business in the state of California exposes dealers to potential tax liabilities.

Tax issues are also threatening the Baltimore Whitman show as current state legislative action may eliminate the bullion and coin sales and use tax exemption for transactions over $1,000, as reported in the March 14 issue.

Nearly all major dealers will be attending at least one of these shows, providing a test to see if the attention precious metals are currently attracting will also increase value perceptions for other aspects of coins.

***

Silver hits 31-year high!

2011-02-28T07:29:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the March 14, 2011, issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com

It was a "wow" week for silver as the metal hit a 31-year high, breaking $34 an ounce on Feb. 21 during unofficial trading in New York as the markets were closed for President's Day.

Silver reached $34.33 an ounce during the day on Feb. 21, before closing at $33.91.

The recent price levels mark a 12 percent increase for silver since the start of the year.

The next day silver gave back some of its recent gains, closing at $33.06 on Feb. 22 in New York, after reaching a high of $33.48.

Silver's topping $30 an ounce renders useless many books that provide silver values for coins, because they stop at $25 to $30 an ounce.

When $1,000 face value 90 percent silver coin bags are trading at about $23,500, melt value alone means that 90 percent silver coins are worth 23.5 times face value. Even 40 percent silver coins (silver-copper clad) are now worth nearly 10 times face value.

As silver moved up so did the price of crude oil, with futures for March delivery closing at $93.57 a barrel on Feb. 22 – oil's highest price since October 2008 – as continued revolt in

Libya, the world's 12th largest oil exporter, rocked the energy markets.

Oil futures rose as high as $94.49 on Feb. 22, before falling back after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said that "there is absolutely no shortage of supply."

Gold is also approaching record highs again, peaking at $1,407.60 an ounce on Feb. 22.

Gold hit an all-time-high price of $1,434.10 an ounce in December 2010.

With the current high prices, the silver/gold ratio has fallen to 41:5, the lowest level since February 1998. This means that it takes around 42 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold.

Silver has many industrial uses in addition to its reputation as a safe-haven and hedge against inflation.

Of course, coin prices are moving up with the price of silver. Generic certified 1878 to 1904 Mint State Morgan dollars are one of the main beneficiaries, with MS-63 Morgan dollars jumping from $45 last week to $50 this week and MS-64 examples moving from $65 to $70.

Even cull Morgan dollars are trading at $26. "Cull" is a term used to describe coins that are heavily worn or have severe problems (excluding holes).

***
Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

One size fits all pricing approach doesn’t always work with Morgan dollars

2011-02-21T14:09:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the March 7, 2011, Special Edition of Coin World

The Morgan dollar is widely traded at all levels, from the top-grade rarities that sell in the high-six figures for investment portfolios to the low-grade polished coins that trade in bulk as collectible alternatives to silver bullion.

The top end of the Morgan dollar market is healthy, with expensive coins in the $5,000 to $250,000 level finding buyers when appearing at auction and bidders paying extra when a top-quality coin meets their requirements.

For example, at the Jan. 5 Heritage Florida United Numismatists auction, an 1893-S Morgan dollar graded About Uncirculated 58 sold for $80,500. Between 2008 and 2009, four AU-58 examples appeared at auction, with prices realized ranging from $21,850 to $46,000.

In contrast, an MS-64 example sold at the Jan. 5 Heritage auction for $218,500, while at the 2009 FUN Heritage auction, two 1893-S Morgan dollars sold for $299,000 — one was graded MS-64 by Professional Coin Grading Service, another Mint State 65 by Numismatic Guaranty Corp.

It can't be stressed enough: When dealing with five-figure plus coins, a one size fits all approach to pricing does not work as the quality of a coin within a given grade matters more than ever in today's market.

Yet, for the collector on a budget, a PCGS Genuine 1893-S Morgan dollar sold at Heritage's Feb. 4 auction for $1,265. While it had the .94 suffix, indicating Altered Surfaces, from the picture it looked decent enough to not cause embarrassment if added to one's collection. (See image)

Beautiful rainbow toned Morgan dollars continue to see astonishing prices, such as the 1883 Morgan dollar graded MS-65 that sold for $1,725 at Heritage's Jan. 6 auction, more than 10 times what a brilliant example in the same grade would bring.

One area that has shown remarkable movement in the last year has been certified Mint State generic coins — "generic" indicating a coin that does not trade for a premium because of its date.

As of Jan. 26, examples certified by PCGS and NGC are trading wholesale for $45 in MS-63, $65 in MS-64, $138 in MS-65, $230 in MS-66 and $565 in MS-67, provided that they are untoned, or nearly so. For comparison, last year at this time the wholesale pricing was: MS-63, $35; MS-64, $44; MS-65, $112; MS-66, $210; and MS-67 $630.

While MS-64 examples have increased nearly 50 percent in the last year, MS-67 examples have declined 10 percent. Of course, a broader range of collectors — and would-be collectors that marketers can target — can afford MS-64 coins, and marketers know this.

For many collectors, an MS-67 Morgan dollar is a coin easily found that can wait for better economic times.

Circulated Morgan dollars are also showing a healthy market, with dealers paying $30 for "sliders" — choice About Uncirculated coins that can pass as Uncirculated to untrained eyes — and $34 for solid Mint State coins. For comparison, this is the same price that certified MS-61 and MS-62 coins are trading for in wholesale markets.

***
Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Gold, silver bullion on rise, but ATB 5-oz silver coins settle down

2011-02-14T10:06:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the February 28, 2011 issue of Coin World

On Feb. 8, silver and gold made a big jump as the U.S. dollar showed signs of weakening and the market reacted to China increasing interest rates in an effort to fight inflation.

However, the 2010 America the Beautiful 5-ounce .999 fine silver bullion coins have not benefited from silver’s rise as prices for the coins have declined sharply.

Silver jumped nearly a dollar on Feb. 8, opening at $29.35 an ounce on Feb. 8 and advancing to $30.40 during the day on the New York markets.

Gold also experienced large gains, leaping to $1,369.30 an ounce after opening at $1,349.50.

After opening the year on Jan. 4 at $1,405.50 an ounce in London, gold gradually sunk to a low of $1,316 on Jan. 28.

Silver has been even more volatile, starting the year at $30.67, before dropping to $29.21 the next day and finding a low of $26.68 on Jan. 28.

Even copper is finding itself at record levels, trading at $4.64 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange on Feb. 7. Investors worried that the copper supply may be constricted as Chile — a large copper producer — could face power outages resulting from a drought.

For the 2010 America the Beautiful 5-ounce .999 fine silver bullion coins, what a difference a week makes!

As the number of coins in the marketplace increases, the prices are falling fast for all but the top-quality certified Mint State 69 coins, as dealers seem to be quickly taking profits, liquidating their positions and moving on to put their money into other things.

On Jan. 1, uncertified Uncirculated five-coin sets brought as much as $2,700. A month later, on Feb. 1, uncertified five-coin sets were trading wholesale for $1,900 to $2,000 and a day later they were they were down to the $1,700 to $1,800. By Feb. 8 the prices for the five-coin sets had fallen to $1,400 to $1,550 and on eBay, certified Professional Coin Grading Service "Choice BU" sets were selling for a "Buy it Now" price of $1,650.

Collectors who waited for the initial sizzle to fizzle are now being rewarded with significantly more affordable silver bullion coins.

One wonders how the prices for 2010 issues will hold up several years from now. Will collector demand continue as the series expands with five new coins each year?

***
Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

ATB 5-ounce silver quarter market still robust

2011-02-07T05:29:00.000-08:00

America the Beautiful 5-ounce silver quarter market still robust
By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com/
First published in the Feb. 21, 2011, issue of Coin World.

Collectors are still paying huge premiums for 2010 America the Beautiful 5-ounce .999 fine silver bullion coins and completed transactions on eBay continue to document the market as it progresses.

While the nine authorized purchasers that purchased these coins directly from the U.S. Mint are allowed to sell these coins for a modest profit — the prices on the primary market have been around $950 per set — several authorized purchasers have yet to sell their sets. This gives some collectors hope of still buying a set for less than $1,000.

Since the last Market Analysis about the America the Beautiful 5-ounce coins, published in the Jan. 24 issue of Coin World, examples certified by Professional Coin Grading Service have entered the marketplace at very high levels.

In two separate eBay auctions on Jan. 28 and Jan. 31, sets of all five 2010 issues, PCGS graded Mint State 69 First Strike, sold for $8,599 per set.

While in early January, five-coin Numismatic Guaranty Corp. sets graded MS-69 sold for as much as $6,500, the majority of five-coin MS-69 sets offered in the last week of January sold for around $4,500.

On the wholesale market, NGC five-coin MS-69 sets are trading at the $4,000 level.

A few MS-68 NGC sets have also sold on eBay: one sold for $3,200 on Jan. 29. Another set in NGC “Gem Uncirculated” holders without a numerical grade sold for $3,150.

Looking at several wholesale dealers’ price lists confirms that slabbed MS-68 coins carry a slight premium over raw coins, as well as over those slabbed with non-numerical grades.

A PCGS set with four MS-68 coins and a single MS-67 — for Hot Springs, Ark. — sold on eBay for $2,800 on Jan. 30.

The trend is that for the 2010 issues, the Yosemite and Hot Springs issues are less frequently found in MS-69. This will be confirmed once the grading services make their population reports on these issues available.
Uncertified sets of five America the Beautiful coins are selling on eBay in the $2,300 to $2,570 range, and they are trading wholesale at the $1,900 to $2,000 level.

Individual coins are becoming increasingly unavailable, though this may change as more are released into the marketplace. The prices on individual coins seem especially erratic, as no one is quite sure how to price them.

Premiums for generic gold coins - like MS-62 Saints and Libs - drop

2011-01-31T09:05:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the Feb.14, 2011, issue of Coin World

January was a hard month for gold. It opened on Jan. 4 at $1,405.50 (London AM fix spot price) and has gradually fallen since, hitting $1,325.60 during trading Jan. 25. It rebounded slightly before falling to a low of $1,315.80 on Jan. 27 as economic concerns both in the United States and globally continue.

Oil hit a seven-week low and the U.S. dollar index hit a two-month low on Jan. 24. Seeing rising U.S. interest rates, Goldman Sachs changed its prediction on gold — suggesting that the gold market could top out in 2011 instead of its earlier forecast for 2012.

This recent decline in gold prices means that gold coins are less expensive in an absolute sense.

Generic Mint State pre-1933 U.S. gold coins are being promoted as good values with gold $20 double eagles advertised as having a strong upside since their premiums have fallen significantly in the past several years.

Looking at the melt price of double eagles compared with the price of MS-62 Coronet double eagles and Saint-Gaudens double eagles shows that the rumors ring true — premiums have fallen dramatically in the past two years.

In January 2009, with a gold spot price of $1,200 an ounce, MS-62 Coronet double eagles were at a wholesale bid of $1,800 while MS-62 Saint-Gaudens double eagles were at $1,650.

A $20 double eagle has .9675 ounce of gold in it. So, at $1,200 spot, its melt value is $1,161. Thus, in January 2009, an MS-62 Coronet double eagle was trading at a premium of $640 while an MS-62 Saint-Gaudens $20 coin was trading at a premium of $435.

In January 2010, MS-62 Coronet double eagles had a wholesale bid of $1,410 and MS-62 Saint-Gaudens $20 coins bid at $1,325. Spot was $1,095.20 an ounce, so they were trading at $350 and $265 premiums, respectively, to their gold content.

In June 2010, MS-62 Coronet double eagles were at were at $1,450 and the MS-62 Saint-Gaudens coins were $1,400 while spot was $1,239.90 an ounce. Premiums over melt value had fallen to $250 and $200.

On Jan. 25, with gold at $1,334, Coronet double eagles were at $1,505 and the Saint-Gaudens coins were at $1,470, so the premiums for MS-62 coins over melt were $215 and $150 — a far cry from two years ago.

How much lower can they drop? Also, how many more are out there, waiting to be certified?

Auctions show continued resilience at top of market for rare coins

2011-01-24T05:33:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the Feb. 7, 2011, Special Edition of Coin World

Things continue to be rosy at the top end of the rare coin market.

Looking at the results of the recent Florida United Numismatists convention auctions reveals that collectors are paying strong premiums for coins that are part of great collections or are new to the market, while being selective on less fresh coins.

One of the highlights of the Heritage FUN auctions was a set of 24 circulation-strike Indian Head gold $5 half eagles consigned by Dallas collector Jim O'Neal, who sold his set of Indian Head $10 eagles at the 2009 FUN show.

While many of the coins were purchased in the last five years, many from auction, collectors seemed to be confident that the coins offered were "best in class," and as such, unlikely to reappear soon.

While bidding in the room during the Jan. 6 Platinum Night floor session was often calm – it seemed that many of the bids were placed online prior to the start of the auction resulting in realistic starting bids – the prices achieved were strong.

O'Neal's Indian Head half eagle collection featured many of the finest-known examples and had an average grade of Mint State 65.32, and according to the catalogers, 14 of the 24 coins in the collection are from issues with 30 or fewer pieces known in MS-65 and finer grade.

His top coin in the set, a 1909-O Indian Head half eagle graded MS-66 – likely the finest known – realized $690,000. It last sold at auction in 1998 for $374,000 and in 1989 sold for $71,500.

A 1911-D Indian Head half eagle graded MS-65+ by Professional Coin Grading Service with a Certified Acceptance Corp. sticker realized $299,000 – a substantial increase from its last auction outing in 2004 where it realized $166,750.

Several coins – including O'Neal's 1908-S half eagle in MS-68 and his 1909-S coin in MS-66, which realized $126,500 and $103,500 &ndsh; did not meet their reserve the last time they were put up to auction and were likely scooped up by O'Neal post-auction. Finding bidders was not a problem this time.

Everyone covets coins that are fresh to market, and few are any fresher than the Frank A. Leach example of the 1907 Saint-Gaudens, High Relief, Flat Rim $20 double eagle. Housed in an Numismatic Guaranty Corp. MS-67+ holder, the legendary beauty sold for a hearty $172,500.

For comparison, two NGC MS-67 wire rim examples sold at auction in 2010 for $97,750 and $138,000 respectively.

A Leach 1907 Indian Head $10 eagle graded MS-65+ by NGC realized $86,250 while another with the same provenance sold for $74,750. At last year's FUN auction, two MS-65 examples sold for $48,875 and $63,250, the latter being graded by PCGS and having a CAC sticker.

Some expensive coins without the attachment of a great collection or a fresh to market provenance didn't fare as well. An 1854-O Coronet double eagle graded AU-55 by PCGS sold for $460,000, representing a substantial loss from its last trip across the auction block in 2008 where it realized $603,750.

Is a bubble forming for "Top of Pop" coins?

2011-01-17T05:41:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the Jan. 31, 2011, issue of Coin World

At the Numismatic Guaranty Corp. luncheon at the Florida United Numismatists show in Tampa on Jan. 8, NGC chairman Mark Salzberg presented some refreshing comments relating to his perceptions of the rare coin market.

While indicating strong demand at the top of the market for rare, high-quality coins, he noted that the astronomic prices achieved for low-population common coins as an indicator of a possible bubble in the market.

A bubble is sometimes referred to as a speculative or price bubble, and represents a deviation in the price that an object is trading at and its intrinsic value – or, that objects are selling for more than their true value. The problem is that bubbles pop.

Salzberg cited the example of a Mint State 68 Walking Liberty half dollar that sold for more than $100,000.

In an Aug. 10, 2010, Heritage auction, a 1944 Walking Liberty half dollar graded MS-68 by Professional Coin Grading Service realized $109,250.

By contrast, an MS-68 example graded by NGC at a Heritage auction earlier in 2010 sold for $6,900. MS-67 examples certified by both NGC and PCGS routinely traded in 2010 at the $1,000 to $1,500 level.

In the Jan. 4 Bowers and Merena Tampa Bay auction (from a practical perspective, the pre-FUN auction), a top-of-the-pop (meaning none are graded higher) 1946-S Washington quarter dollar graded MS-68 by PCGS with a Certified Acceptance Corp. sticker found a new buyer at $14,950. (Image left courtesy of Bowers and Merena Auctions)

In contrast, a gorgeously toned MS-67 PCGS 1946-S quarter dollar – also with a CAC sticker – sold for $1,092.50, at a May 2009 Heritage auction. A "regular" PCGS MS-67 1946-S quarter dollar sold for $373.75 at Heritage on Jan. 9. PCGS has graded 93 examples of the issue in MS-67 and only four in MS-68.

Salzberg urged attendees to look at "top of the pop" coins from a value perspective, saying that for $100,000, a collector could buy two Matte Proof Saint-Gaudens $20 double eagles. A Proof 65 1915 double eagle sold for $43,125 at the 2010 FUN sale.

Salzberg's message was that while some coins are truly rare, many of the very high prices in the current market for 20th century coins that are common in low and even higher Mint State grades may not be entirely justified from a value perspective.

Big money for 2010 silver ATB 5-ounce coins on eBay

2011-01-10T06:20:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the January 24, 2011, issue of Coin World

The first 2010 America the Beautiful 5-ounce .999 fine silver bullion coins have entered the marketplace and collectors have responded by paying huge prices for the five-coin set on eBay.

While the Dec. 20 Market Analysis column anticipated that the surprisingly low mintage would cause speculation, the results of the first week of completed transactions on eBay are just short of shocking.

The 3-inch-diameter bullion quarter dollars are in hot demand as their mintage was strictly limited to not more than 33,000 of each design.

The authorized purchasers who elected to take part in distributing the coins are being held to tight restrictions on the amount that they charge for the coins and can only sell to the public.

The original selling price for the five-coin sets coins so far has averaged $900 to $1,000.

For the lucky few collectors who have been able to get their hands on these coins, a quick windfall seems guaranteed for those who choose to sell them.

Certified or "slabbed" coins are bringing the highest prices.

On Dec. 31, a five-coin set certified Mint State 69 by Numismatic Guaranty Corp. realized $6,470. On Jan. 2, another NGC certified five-coin set sold for $5,100.

Uncertified coins provide a greater number of transactions to look at, led by a five-coin set advertised on eBay as "in hand for immediate shipment, kinda hard to find." It sold for $3,101 with 35 competing bids on Dec. 28.

Prices have been declining a bit each day since and appear to be stabilizing as of Jan. 4.

On Dec. 31, 19 bidders competed for a five-coin set that sold for $2,728, and on Jan. 3, 14 bids brought another five-coin set to $2,705.

On Jan. 4, the lowest eBay "Buy it Now" price for a set of five coins was $2,395, with free shipping.

One major wholesale market maker advertised two five-coin sets for sale to fellow dealers on Jan. 1 for $2,650, lowering the price two days later to $2,550 and then again lowering the price to $2,300 the same day.

Single coins, as opposed to five-coin sets, are also becoming available on eBay, with single uncertified coins selling for around $450 to $500 each.

Will this robust market continue, or will collectors lose interest? We can only wait and see!

New year, new rare coin auction firm

2011-01-03T05:13:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the Jan. 17, 2011, issue of Coin World

The year 2010 ended with a bang for the rare coin market, as a merger of Bowers and Merena Auctions and Stack's was announced, to form a new company, Stack's-Bowers Numismatics.

The merger will create a firm with a substantial presence on both coasts, with Los Angeles-based Bowers and Merena Auctions and New York-centered Stack's.

(Pictured is a fantastic gold 10 ducat from Transylvania, 1663, to be offered in Stack's International Sale held during the New York International Numismatic Convention on Jan. 10, 2011. Image courtesy of Stack's.)

Will this new company be able to better equipped to gain market share away from Dallas-based Heritage Auction Gallery, which currently has the majority of the coin auction share in both volume of lots and total dollar value?

One would think that the combined firm should have a greater shot of gaining market share than either Stack's or Bowers and Merena Auctions had individually.

As the auction business moves more online, and as collectors become increasingly comfortable with using auctions as a retail coin buying venue, an auction company's resources to develop bidding platforms and collector-centered tools like searchable archives on the Internet are more essential to a firm's success than ever.

But, as anyone who has built a Web site knows, it is neither easy nor cheap to develop user-friendly resources on the Internet.

The combined resources of Stack's and Bowers and Merena Auctions should allow for greater innovations that can only benefit collectors in the long run.

Where does this merger leave independent auction firms like Ira & Larry Goldberg Coins & Collectibles in Beverly Hills, Calif., or Scotsman Auction Co. in St. Louis, among several others?

In the fine art field, the two dominant players are Christie's and Sotheby's. Each firm sells several billion dollars worth of fine art across multiple categories each year.

Yet, despite the two firm's dominance, many major cities have their own regional auction houses.

Many collectors prefer the personal touch that they get from these smaller houses, where a mid-level object or a more specialized grouping can be the "star" of a sale.

Simply put, a merger of two major firms in a given market shakes things up. But the likely result is that collectors will win because competition should prompt innovation.

Enterprising smaller auction firms will seek to fill in the gaps in service and offerings of the market share leaders.

Are rare coins investments?

2010-12-27T06:03:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the Jan. 10, 2011, issue of Coin World

Are rare coins an investment class? They are according to the Wall Street Journal.

For the past several years, Coin World has provided a "Classic U.S. Rarities Key-Date Investment Index" for use in the Wall Street Journal's investment scoreboard.

The scoreboard tracks investment groups in the categories of stocks, bonds, mutual funds, bank instruments (bank certificates of deposit and money market accounts), money market funds, precious metals and residential real estate.

Coins are listed in the category, "Rare Coins, top investment grade," in the year-end survey.

The investment index consists of 82 coins: 15 copper coins, five copper-nickel pieces, 39 silver coins and 23 gold coins with a total 2010 value of just more than $13 million. It's a collection of coins that tracks the high end of the market, with a diverse group of rare U.S. coins in high grades.

Coin World's rare coin index gained 15.8 percent in 2006, registered a 31.9 percent gain in 2007, rose a more modest 8.8 percent in 2008 and in 2009 recorded a 7.9 percent loss.

The 2010 index measured a gain of 10.3 percent, showing the resilience at the top of the market for rarities and the increasing confidence of sellers to test their luck by offering high-value coins at public auctions. The announcement of several substantial private-treaty sales of $1 million plus coins also bolstered confidence in the top end of the market.

Broken out by categories, copper coins gained 8.3 percent in 2010, compared with a huge 37 percent gain in 2009.

Silver and copper-nickel coins rose 6.2 percent in 2010, compared with an 8.9 percent loss the prior year.

Gold coins rose 14.3 percent in 2010, nearly completely erasing the 14.7 percent loss that was registered in 2009.

On the scoreboard, in 2008, rare coins were one of the few investments that registered a gain. However, fortunes can change quickly in the investment world, and in 2009, rare coins as measured by the Coin World index were among the worst-performing investments as the housing and investment markets rebounded.

Where will coins fit among other investments in the 2010 ranking?

The Wall Street Journal will publish the scoreboard in its Jan. 3 issue.

Three Big Rarities Offered at FUN Auctions

2010-12-20T05:38:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the Jan. 3, 2011, Special Edition of Coin World

For the past few years, arguably the main annual event for the rare coin market has been the massive Heritage auctions at the Florida United Numismatists convention, a major coin show that will take place during the first week of the new year in Tampa Jan. 6 to 9.

The multiday auctions and the packed bourse floor at FUN set the tone of the market for at least the year's early months, as dealers reposition their inventories, and collectors make their first buys of the year.

Some expensive coins were sold at the 2010 FUN Heritage auction, including $3,737,500 realized for one of finest known examples of the 1913 Liberty Head 5-cent coin, tying the third-place record for the largest sum ever paid at auction for a single U.S. coin.

Two other million-dollar coins traded hands in the 2010 Heritage FUN auctions: a 1927-D Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagle graded Mint State 66, which sold for $1,495,000, and an 1874 Dana Bickford gold $10 eagle pattern in Proof 65 deep cameo, which sold above expectations for $1,265,000.

In total, more than $36.5 million in coins traded hands at the 2010 Heritage official FUN coin auctions.

While the new year's first auction lacks an obvious million-dollar superstar on the level of the 1913 Liberty Head 5-cent piece, three exceptional coins could prove dazzling.

Perhaps the most noteworthy is an 1852-O Coronet $20 double eagle graded MS-65. It is the finest known example of the date and the catalog description states that it is "quite likely the finest New Orleans twenty of any date."

In 2009, a Specimen 63 1856-O Coronet double eagle realized $1,437,500. In addition, 1850 to 1866 New Orleans Mint double eagles enjoy a healthy popularity.

Since the offered 1852-O Coronet double eagle has been off the market for more than 30 years, it's anyone's guess as to what this grand condition rarity will bring.

Another New Orleans Mint gold coin may also soar – the finest collectible 1909-O Indian Head $5 half eagle, graded MS-66. The lot description counts 19 examples graded MS-64 to MS-66 and the issue is the key to the series. The offered example last sold publicly in May 1998 as part of the Thaine B. Price Collection for $374,000, where it was described by auctioneer David Akers as "the finest collectible example of the rarest issue in the entire series."

While the Indian Head half eagle lacks the broad popularity that Coronet double eagles enjoy, coins that are undoubtedly the "best of the best" have thrived in the current market.

A third coin that could surprise is a Proof 67 1907 Indian Head, Normal Rim gold $10 eagle, formerly in the collection of Mint Director Frank A. Leach and held by his family for more than 100 years.

It's the finest example known, and the catalog makes an argument that it may be a trial piece. With an impeccable provenance and nearly unparalleled beauty, this coin has broad mass appeal.

Morgan dollars in high demand after silver surge

2010-12-13T06:06:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the Dec. 27, 2010, issue of Coin World

Gold and silver continued their assent Dec. 6, with gold hitting a record $1,432.50 and silver reaching a 30-year high of $30.73 during trading on Dec. 7.

Investors continue to be worried about the financial stability of Europe, the potential for a weak U.S. dollar, and the possibility that the Federal Reserve will expand its latest stimulus package to buy more U.S. bonds.

These factors, combined with increased demand associated with the holidays, means there is a strong likelihood that bullion prices may keep increasing.

Higher silver prices directly impact collectors in that 90 percent silver bags of coins ($1,000 face value) are now trading for nearly $22,000.

A common Franklin half dollar is worth $11 now, solely for its melt value. A 40 percent silver Kennedy half dollar is worth $4.50.

Some issues have seen a surge in demand, such as certified Mint State 63 and MS-64 Morgan dollars, which are now trading for $39 and $57 each wholesale in sight-unseen markets, compared with the $34 and $44 level where they were trading in September.

The gains for MS-65 and MS-66 Morgan dollars have been less dramatic, with these issues trading at $125 and $205 wholesale.

However, none of these increases is proportional to the increase in the price of silver, which has moved up nearly 50 percent in the past three months.

Circulated Morgan dollars show nearly unstoppable demand, with dealers paying $24 for circulated 1921 Morgan dollars and $27 for Mint State examples.

For 1878 to 1904 issues, some dealers are paying $35 for a Mint State example and $36 for Mint State San Francisco Mint issues.

Even culls – the lowest of the low in terms of grade, generally ugly coins that can have major rim damage, scratches and heavy polishing – are trading at the $22 level.

The interest in the common issues has sparked increases in tougher dates too, because as the prices for common dates increase, tougher dates become cheaper by comparison.

Peace dollars haven't quite picked up the fire, with MS-63 examples bringing $32 and MS-64 examples seeing $38 wholesale.

Low mintages to create new modern rarities

2010-12-06T06:47:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the December 20, 2010, issue of Coin World

The U.S. Mint's Dec. 1 announcement that it is placing tighter than expected mintage limits on the new 2010 America the Beautiful 5-ounce .999 fine silver bullion quarter dollars may result in the creation of some new modern rarities.

The large (3 inches in diameter) and undoubtedly impressive coins will surely be in hot demand, especially with such limited supplies.

The bullion issues are made available to authorized dealers who then resell the coins to the market. The mintages are strictly limited to not more than 33,000 of each design – a sharp decline from the 100,000 previously announced. The Mint will charge its distributors $9.75 per coin above the price of silver.

Uncirculated examples will be offered for sale directly to collectors during the first quarter of 2011. With mintage limits of 27,000 per coin, the 2010 issues seem destined to be modern classics, as the coins relate to circulating coins, are likely affordable to many collectors, and are simply big and flashy.

Of course, the long-term demand is largely dependent on whether collectors take to the large silver coins and seek to build sets.

Time will tell about the long-term popularity of these coins, but in the meantime, the lower-than-expected mintages should provide great action for speculators and spectators alike.

The American Eagle silver bullion coins provide a comparison point, having as key to the series the Proof 1995-W American Eagle with a mintage of 30,125 pieces. Examples of that issue regularly sell for $3,000.

Collectors' difficulties in acquiring Proof 2010-W American Eagle silver bullion coins, with strict 100-coin per household ordering limits, have already created a robust aftermarket for these coins.

On eBay, ready-to-ship examples have been regularly selling for $55.

At least one major market-maker is offering $49 a coin for 100-coin confirmed orders of Proof 2010-W American Eagle silver coins. At an issue price of $45.95, this allows a profit of nearly $300 for dealers, and provides the market-maker a large group of coins to market during the holidays.

Rare slabs can carry big premiums!

2010-11-29T11:05:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the December 6, 2010, issue of Coin World

Some collectors wouldn't agree with the statement, "buy the coin, not the slab," because to them, the slab is just as important as the coin.

In particular, some collectors have acquired a taste for Numismatic Guaranty Corp. "black" holders.

NGC was formed in 1987 and these holders were used for the first several months of operation, roughly from September through November 1987.

They are similar in shape to today’s NGC slabs, but differ in that the insert securing the coin is black, and the white insert with the coin’s identifying information is on the side that displays the reverse, where the coin seems upside down.

The obverse in black holders is displayed on the side with the NGC stamped logo, which for current holders is on the back of the slab.

Few of these holders remain today. Estimates on the number of surviving black holders range from 35 to 200, and they are collected as novel relics of the early days of third-party coin grading.

Occasionally they turn up and trade at auction.

At a Nov. 14 eBay auction, a New Jersey seller offered a 1924 Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagle in an NGC Mint State 62 "black" slab. (Pictured, image courtesy of Danielle's, on eBay as onionsavenged)

It sold for an astonishing $3,805. In comparison, one major dealer is selling current-holder NGC MS-62 double eagles for $1,600 and MS-66 coins for $2,850.

While grading was perhaps more conservative back in the early days of NGC, and the seller said the coin "looks like a MS64," the huge premium must be attributed more to the holder than to the coin.

Nine bidders competed for the coin, with the underbidder dropping out at $3,755. The seller set the starting bid at $2,750 – a price nearly comparable to a current holder NGC MS-66 piece.

While the black holders were flattering to brilliant silver coins or lustrous Mint State gold coins, the holders did little to flatter dark coins and copper, and the holder was retired at the end of 1987.

There is even a 420-page book on slabs by Michael Schmidt, Third Party Grading/Certification Services, that covers more than 80 companies that produced slabs and 200 varieties of normal production slabs.

Higher premiums don't seem to hinder demand for silver American Eagles

2010-11-22T08:50:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the December 6, 2010, issue of Coin World

While bullion markets continue their wild fluctuations, demand for American Eagle 1-ounce silver bullion coins remains vibrant.

In October, the United States Mint increased the premium charged to its authorized purchasers for American Eagle silver bullion coins from $1.50 to $2 per coin. The premium was increased in 2009 from $1.40 to $1.50 per coin and in 2008 from $1.25 to $1.40 per coin.

While Proof American Eagle silver coins may be purchased directly from the Mint, the Mint sells the silver bullion coins only to dealers in minimum 25,000-coin shipments.

However, the premium increase seems to have had no noticeable impact on demand, as the Mint has sold more than 30 million silver American Eagles thus far in 2010, eclipsing 2009's sales record of 28,766,500 pieces.

Surely silver hitting 30-year highs including a flirtation with $29 earlier in November has helped keep demand for the attractive and easily portable silver American Eagles robust. Demand for the coins throughout the holiday gift-giving season will mean that 2010 sales figures will continue to climb.

Proof 2010-W American Eagle silver coins went on sale Nov. 19, priced at $45.95, with a 100-coin household limit.

The Mint's Web site already warns customers of possible ordering delays on Nov. 19, due to the deluge of customers who are likely to order in light of "unusually high demand."

Until Proof 2010-W coins enter the marketplace, wholesalers are paying up to $57 for earlier Proof American Eagle silver coins in original Mint packaging.

Grading service population reports show that 2010 American Eagle silver bullion coins are extremely well-produced.

Of the 44,160 graded by Professional Coin Grading Service so far this year, a whopping 36,470 pieces have received Mint State 70 grades.

Currently PCGS MS-70 2010 silver American Eagles are selling in online auctions for $60 to $100, while certified MS-69 representatives can be found for around $35 and uncertified examples are seen at $30.

In large quantities, 2010 American Eagle silver bullion coins are available from wholesale dealers at silver spot price plus $2.60 per coin.

Strong bourse + auctions at Baltimore coin show; Rarities keep soaring

2010-11-15T06:12:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the November 29, 2010, issue of Coin World

The Nov. 4 to 7 Whitman Coin and Collectibles Baltimore Expo was characterized by both a strong bourse floor and well-performing auctions with interesting and fresh material.

The Baltimore show, held three times a year, has become one of the most robust on the circuit, with dealers and collectors alike praising Whitman for being responsive and Baltimore for being a good convention city, characterized by inexpensive flights, reasonably priced hotels and good local restaurants.

A walk around the bourse floor on Friday revealed healthy dealer-to-collector business being done.

Prior to the show's start, Stack's presented its 75th anniversary auction, which realized nearly $4.6 million across 2,500 lots.

It was anchored by the W.L. Carson Collection of U.S. Proof sets, a remarkable and large fresh-to-market collection put together decades ago consisting of more than 500 lots of Proof coins from 1837 to 1964.

The quality was characteristic of many old collections put together prior to third-party grading: some coins were amazing high-grade beauties while others were harshly cleaned or displayed artificial toning and were in Professional Coin Grading Service "Genuine" holders. The market absorbed the collection at strong prices.

Bowers and Merena Auctions hosted the official expo auction with more than 3,500 lots, anchored by the No. 2 collection of Standing Liberty quarter dollars with full head designation.

A toned 1916 Standing Liberty quarter dollar graded Mint State 67+ full head sold for $195,500 (pictured left, image courtesy of bowersandmerena.com), while a more brilliant example in the same grade without the "+" brought $115,000. A 1927-S quarter dollar graded MS-65+ full head brought $149,500. All three were graded by PCGS and carried Certified Acceptance Corp. stickers.

In total the auction saw 12 separate Standing Liberty quarter dollars realize more than $25,000 each.

The sum of the auction results shows continued health for a wide range of issues including gold, especially at the $20,000 to $200,000 level, as collectors continue to seek objects of lasting and proven value during times of economic uncertainty.

Market reports provide sense, auction results provide proof

2010-11-08T05:47:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the November 22, 2010 issue of Coin World

After a major show, there is little shortage of collectors and dealers who post market reports. These can be useful for providing a general sense of the market at a given show, while a look at the auction results provides tangible proof of where the market is at a given moment.

Coinfest was held Oct. 28 to 30 in Stamford, Conn. It's a relatively new show and promoted a bourse of 150 dealers in 2010.

This year the show suffered a loss and a gain.

It lost free evaluations by Certified Acceptance Corp., which places stickers on certified coins if they meet a certain standard of quality. The service had been a popular draw at the show.

The show gained a Heritage auction that realized a healthy $9.42 million.

Viewing post-show reports online provides good indicators of the traffic at a show, which at Coinfest was almost universally described as slow, and the voices online offer plenty of suggestions why.

The winning reason seems to be that the Whitman Coin & Collectibles Baltimore Expo was the next weekend, and collectors and dealers alike decided to wait for that show. For many New York City-area collectors, a trip to Stamford takes the same effort as a trip to Baltimore.

A Heritage Auctions post-auction press release characterized results as 20 percent higher than pre-auction projections.

The obvious auction star was an 1879 Washlady dollar pattern in silver graded Proof 66+ by Numismatic Guaranty Corp. that was purchased by New Jersey dealer Legend Numismatics for $161,000. (Pictured left, image courtesy HeritageAuctions.com)

An exceedingly rare Colonial coin, a 1785 Connecticut copper of the African Head design graded Very Fine 30, realized a robust $115,000.

Just several nights later at Sotheby's Impressionist and Modern auction in New York, a Modigliani canvas of a sensual nude sold for a record $68.9 million, showing that at the very top of a similar market, lots of money is available to spend big to acquire the best.

However, the rapid advances in bullion prices have not seemed to bring the action in the lower-segments of the coin market for which many dealers have hoped.

Prices reflect not only a coin's grade...quality matters, too

2010-11-01T06:23:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach

First published in the November 15, 2010, issue of Coin World

New and experienced collectors alike are often confused when they see two coins in the same grade selling for very different prices at auction.

Dealers are quick to say that the coins that sell for more are nice for the grade, while those that don't sell for the high end of expectations are at the low end of the grade.

But when it comes to the higher end of the market, the answer can be both supply alongside the merits of the coin itself.

For example, someone may have gotten a bargain at Scotsman Auction Co.'s Oct. 15 auction where a 1794 Flowing Hair silver dollar graded Very Fine 30 by Professional Coin Grading Service sold for $109,250, at the low end of its pre-auction estimate. (Coin pictured left, image courtesy Scotsman Auctions, www.scoins.com.)

While the price is a bit more than the $92,000 that a Fine 15 example of the coin brought in August at Stack's, it is substantially less than the $126,500 that a VF-25 example brought at an August Heritage auction. Back in January 2009, Heritage sold another example graded VF-30 by PCGS for $143,750.

The issue is rare, but with approximately 130 examples known, it is not impossible to find. Plus there is a built-in audience for the first silver dollar struck by the federal Mint that can be tapped in promotions outside the general coin-collecting base.

1794 Flowing Hair dollars have been in the news a lot this year. A Mint State 64 example sold for $1.2 million at an August Bowers and Merena auction. In May, a nonprofit foundation purchased a PCGS Specimen 66 1794 Flowing Hair dollar for a reported $7.85 million, making it the world's most expensive coin.

Yet, the Scotsman auction transaction at below recent comparable transactions reflects the increasing selectivity characterizing today's market, especially at the mid- to high end.

A known rarity certified by a leading third-party service selling at a public auction must be accounted for when considering the value of other 1794 Flowing Hair silver dollars, but all who are in the market for top rarities, either buyers or sellers, have to take into account the quality of the coin and the overall look of it, alongside the technical grade.

Generics slow to match gains of gold, silver

2010-10-25T11:11:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the November 8, 2010, issue of Coin World

Some of the coins that one would expect to rise such as generic Mint State Morgan silver dollars and Coronet and Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagles are showing only minimal gains, although they are trading at high volumes.

On Oct. 14, gold hit a historic high London AM fix price of $1,380.75 an ounce, and during intraday trading that day reached a record $1,388.10.

The same day the U.S. dollar sunk to lows not seen since January upon news that Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke indicated that another round of government monetary stimulus funding may be necessary to revive the U.S. economy.

As silver continues to flirt with $25 per ounce, MS-63 through MS-65 Morgan dollars – the bread and butter of the generic market – are showing some upward movement in price, with several dealers paying more than wholesale "ask" prices for MS-64 and MS-65 dollars, as long as they are "white or white-ish," to fill large orders from retailers.

Retail prices may increase soon in kind, although some collectors will likely elect to sit out the silver coin market for a while, hoping that the price of silver declines and their wanted coins return to more affordable levels.

As an example, when a common silver quarter dollar is trading for almost $5, many collectors are in no rush to buy.

Circulated silver dollars are showing even more action, with several wholesale dealers paying $22 for Extremely Fine pre-1921 Morgan dollars and $29 for uncertified Mint State examples.

As the public continues to sell these coins to dealers in record numbers, a steady supply is created that should keep prices from escalating rapidly.

Prices for generic gold coins continue to lag behind gold’s ascent and most issues show modest if any price increases. Those prices still have not come close to the levels seen at the beginning of the year, despite the fact that gold is now 25 percent more expensive.

An increased supply of these coins is entering the marketplace, keeping prices in check, at least for now.

Gold dominates coin market as records fall

2010-10-18T05:47:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the Nov. 1, 2010, issue of Coin World

Gold is currently the engine that is driving the rare coin market.

It seems that Coin World's Market Analysis of late has been alternating between gold one week and everything else the next week. However, an emphasis on gold is appropriate as the market has never seen gold hit the levels that it is currently hitting.

On Oct. 11, the price of gold hit a record London PM fix of $1,351 an ounce and at one point during the day hovered at $1,360.

On Oct. 12, the banking investment firm Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecasts to $1,400, $1,525 and $1,650 for three-, six- and 12-month horizons, citing falling interest rates and a slowdown of the U.S. economic recovery.

Other investment firms are similarly bullish on the prospects of gold to continue rising in value.

Gold is up nearly 25 percent in 2010, and if trends continue, gold will be heading for its tenth consecutive annual gain.

The U.S. Mint's release of Proof 2010-W American Eagle gold coins in early October has taken pressure off the secondary market for earlier 1-ounce issues.

At an issue price of $1,585, the 2010 1-ounce coins are trading at the same level as older issues in the wholesale markets, where several dealers are paying up to $1,600 an ounce for coins available for immediate shipment to fill orders from wholesalers who still have customers demanding these coins for inclusion in Individual Retirement Accounts.

As of Oct. 12, the Mint's Web site posts an expected delivery date of Oct. 27 for new orders of Proof 2010-W gold American Eagles.

The recent announcement that the Mint will produce Proof 2010-W American Eagle silver coins has also cooled off the market for earlier coins tremendously.

Immediately after the news about the Proof 2010-W silver coins broke, market makers reduced their buy prices for Proof silver American Eagles from $55 to $45, in line with the Mint's $45.95 price of the Proof 2010-W coins when they go on sale Nov. 19 at noon with a household limit of 100.

The Mint has not given any indication of how many Proof 2010-W American Eagles silver coins may be produced.

Fast profits not guaranteed at auction

2010-10-11T07:11:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the October 25, 2010, issue of Coin World

While many dealers continue to grumble about weak bourse action at the recently finished back-to-back Long Beach, Calif., and Philadelphia coin shows, in which a review of the dealer bourse lists seem to show a clear bifurcation between West and East coast dealers, the market continues to be robust in the auction sector.

In the official Heritage Auction Galleries Long Beach sale, the top lot was an Extremely Fine 45+ 1856-O Coronet gold $20 double eagle that surfaced in Ohio and was the cover story of the July 26 Coin World. It brought $345,000.

The Heritage auction realized $13.4 million total.

The next two top lots were large gold ingots; further evidence for the market’s insatiable appetite for gold.

Heritage has had a curious auction history in the last two years with 1856-O double eagles, with five auction appearances in the past two years. The recent auction price seems to break what has been a downward trajectory for the issue in auction results.

In January 2009, an EF-45 example sold for $276,000 and the same coin sold again in July 2009, for $253,000. In October 2008, an AU-58 example sold for $576,150 and that same example brought $460,000 in July 2009.

Perhaps too many auction appearances skewed bidders’ sense of its rarity. Heritage estimates that fewer than 20 are available for collectors and the most recently offered example, held by a family in Ohio for nearly 100 years, was as "fresh-to-market" as they get.

For top rarities, the perception of rarity can be almost as important as actual rarity to justify six- and seven-figure prices.

The next week, Stack’s Philadelphia Americana sale realized a very healthy $9,676,867.

One of the highlights, a Proof 65 Cameo 1887 Coronet gold $5 half eagle, brought $97,750, a bit less than it realized at auction in January 2007 where it brought $103,500 when offered as part of the Robert J. Loewinger Collection (pictured above, left).

Results like this serve as a cautionary tale that even at the top-end of the market with coins of superlative quality and absolute rarity, quick profits are not a guarantee

Gold's astounding ride

2010-10-04T07:10:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the Oct. 18, 2010, issue of Coin World

Gold continues to astound as it broke the $1,300 ounce level for the first time on Sept. 28, closing in New York at $1,306.60 an ounce.

The next day, gold hit a high of $1,313.20 before closing at $1,308.50.

In a nice contrast to the previous week's House Subcommittee hearings focused on fighting fraud in the sale of gold coins, the Sept. 29 Wall Street Journal featured a front-page story that was overwhelmingly positive about gold's potential to top $1,500 next year.

It focused on investors' growing desire to hold actual gold in the form of coins and bars.

Reports by numerous analysts and banks seem to share a bullish view for gold, evidenced by a Sept. 28 report by Deutsche Bank that stated that $1,600 an ounce gold would not be surprising for 2012 and that gold would not be in a "bubble" until hitting $2,000.

The recent bull run-up in gold prices has been attributed to many things: continued uncertainty in the real estate market; concern about the value of currencies, especially China's; low consumer confidence in the United States; and general concern about large central banks' ability to control the money supply adequately.

But to collectors, one thing is clear: gold coins are much more expensive than they were in 2000, in large part due to the price of gold rising 353 percent over that time.

The increased threat of intrusive federal regulations in the coin industry, such as the recently introduced Coin and Precious Metal Disclosure Act (H.R. 6149) have done little to dampen the public's appetite for gold coins.

But dealers have responded vocally to fight multiple pieces of legislation that could affect the coin market, forming political action committees aimed at fostering better communication between the coin community and legislators.

Many dealers reported that gold was the lone bright spot in the market at the recently completed Long Beach Coin, Stamp & Collectables Expo, where several market-makers elected to stay home, instead budgeting to attend the Whitman Coin and Collectibles Philadelphia Expo, another major show, scheduled for the following weekend.

Pictured is an 1856-O Coronet $20 double eagle graded Extremely Fine 45 + by Numismatic Guaranty Corp. that sold for $345,000 at the Heritage Auction Galleries Long Beach sale on Sept. 23. The story of the coin and its discovery was the subject of a July 26 front page story in Coin World titled "1856-O gold double eagle surfaces in Ohio."

Fall's Busy Coin Show Schedule

2010-09-27T05:44:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in Oct 11, 2010, Coin World

When gold hits record levels, coin shows get a bit more press and attendance than they normally do, and in the next two months four major shows and hundreds of local shows will cater to a public curious about how they can buy into or cash out of gold at $1,300 an ounce.

After the American Numismatic Association World's Fair of Money in August, there is a typical lull in the market and an absence of major shows until the Long Beach (Calif.) Coin, Stamp & Collectibles Expo in September, this year held Sept. 23 to 25 with an official auction by Heritage Auction Galleries and a pre-Long Beach auction by Ira and Larry Goldberg.

Then, the following weekend on the East Coast is the Whitman Coin and Collectibles Philadelphia Expo, Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, with an official auction by Stack's and an official pre-auction by Bowers and Merena Auctions.

While the three-times-a-year Long Beach Expo is well established, the Philadelphia Expo (held just once before) has provided an alternative to dealers who wanted a major early-fall show but did not want to set up business in California for tax nexus issues.

Next on the big show calendar is Coinfest, in Stamford, Conn., from Oct. 28 to 30. With a New York City area location, the show has quickly grown in influence, perhaps evidenced by Heritage Auctions' sale there.

Following Coinfest is the Whitman Baltimore Expo, Nov. 4 to 7, which like the Long Beach Expo is also held three times annually. It has an official sale by Bowers and Merena Auctions.

The continued vitality of these shows is a sign that they are viewed as useful by both dealers and collectors, and continue to be profitable for the sponsors.

On the auction results front, at Bonhams and Butterfields Sept. 20 coin auction, an uncertified 1889-CC Morgan dollar sold for $87,750 against an estimate of $27,000 to $30,000 (pictured above).

It was cataloged as "Brilliant Uncirculated," but the price realized suggested a coin between Mint State 64 and MS-65. With MS-64 coins bringing $60,000 and an MS-65 possibly worth as much as $350,000, it will be interesting to see where the coin ends up.

Another gold record set; but generics still lag

2010-09-21T07:47:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the October 4, 2010, issue of Coin World

Gold hit a record high Sept. 15, with a London P.M. fix of $1,267 an ounce. During intra-day trading on Sept. 15, it reached $1,272.70.

With all this interest in gold and the mainstream attention it is getting, one would think that generic gold coins would be blazing hot. Yet, many of the most popular issues trade at heavy discounts to earlier in the year when gold was trading at the $1,100 an ounce level.

The coins that investors typically flock to during bullion run-ups, Saint Gaudens $20 double eagles and Coronet double eagles, are trading at substantial discounts to what they were trading for at the start of the year.

For example, one major wholesale market maker at the close of 2009 was selling certified Saint Gaudens double eagles for $1,660 in Mint State 62, $1,820 in MS-63, $2,070 in MS-64 and $2,580 in MS-65. Today, that same dealer is selling the coins at $1,550, $1,590, $1,660 and $2,080 in the same grades respectively.

Other gold series are experiencing declines at the wholesale generic level, as market makers are not taking large positions in these coins, but $10 eagles and double eagles have suffered the worst declines.

Earlier this year one dealer was selling Indian Head eagles in MS-64 for $2,470; today the same dealer is selling them at $1,580.

In general, the only generic gold coins that have gained value this year are circulated coins, which are dependent on bullion prices for value.

In light of rapidly increasing gold values, one wonders how much longer these discounts will persist.

The recent announcement that the Mint intends to release Proof 2010-W American Eagle gold coins has put a further chill on the market for earlier Proof American Eagle gold coins.

In the Aug. 30 Market Analysis, I reported that major market-maker buy prices for the earlier coins with original Mint packaging had fallen to $1,750 an ounce, down from $2,000 an ounce.

As of Sept. 16, many of the market-makers have dropped out of the market and the few who remain are buying the earlier coins for as low as $1,575 an ounce, with the highest price being a small order at $1,600 an ounce.

Full band Roosevelt dimes

2010-09-14T05:11:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the Sept. 27, 2010, issue of Coin World

The market for full bands Roosevelt dimes is one dominated by a handful of specialists who are willing to spend big for the right coin.

Numismatic Guaranty Corp. calls circulation-strike Roosevelt dimes with both the upper and lower pair of bands on the torch showing full separation, having a complete and unbroken line dividing the bands, "full torch" (abbreviated as FT), while Professional Coin Grading Service calls them "full bands" (FB).

Both services began to recognize the designation in 2003 and the popularity of registry sets has fueled four-figure prices for condition rarities.

For example, on Sept. 6, a 1953-S Roosevelt dime graded Mint State 68 full torch by NGC realized $2,600 during an auction conducted by Teletrade.

Earlier this year, a 1951-D Roosevelt dime graded MS-68 full bands by PCGS (pictured above) sold for a very strong $4,600 while a stunning and beautifully toned 1949-D PCGS MS-68 full bands from the same consignor realized $3,105 at a Heritage Auction Galleries sale.

The market for high-end Roosevelt dimes is not entirely dependent on a full bands/torch designation.

At a Sept. 9, 2009, Heritage auction, a 1963-D Roosevelt dime graded MS-68 (without a full bands designation) realized a whopping $5,175.

The market for full bands Roosevelt dimes is the most robust for the series' silver issues, produced from 1949 to 1964, although the occasional copper-nickel clad issue can soar, such as a NGC MS-68 full torch 1965 dime that brought $805 at a March 25 Heritage auction.

In the PCGS Registry, 137 registered sets are listed, consisting of the 48 Roosevelt dime circulation strikes from 1949 to 1964, with the top four sets 100 percent complete.

Many of the issues are unknown in grades finer than MS-67 full bands and the current No. 1 set contains each issue in MS-67 full bands and finer, with several MS-67+ full bands and a single MS-68 FB.

The owner of the No. 1 set has posted pictures of all but two of the coins in his set, named "close to perfect," online. Browsing through them gives an introduction to the many different looks that Mint State Roosevelt dimes can have.

2010-W Proof Platinum American Eagles Enter Market

2010-09-07T05:14:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the Sept. 20, 2010, issue of Coin World

The fast sellout of the Proof 2010-W American Eagle 1-ounce platinum coin has led to a robust secondary market for the issue and easy profits for some collectors.

The continued absence of Proof 2010-W American Eagle gold and silver coins has created a void in the market that the platinum coins seem to have filled, at least for the time being.

As reported in the Sept. 9 issue of Coin World, the Proof American Eagle platinum coin went on sale Aug. 12 with a mintage limit of 10,000 coins and an ordering limit of five coins per household. New orders went to wait-list on Aug. 19.

The initial issue price was $1,892, but dropped to $1,792 a week later due to the U.S. Mint's precious metals coins pricing schedule, which is based on precious metal spot prices.

Prescient buyers could immediately sell the coins for a profit, with several wholesalers paying $2,000 for the coins, although requiring overnight shipment as soon as the coins arrive.

So, someone who placed the maximum order of five coins could make $1,000 quickly.

The situation resembles what happened in the first months following the release of the 2009 Saint-Gaudens, Ultra High Relief gold $20 coin, when examples were selling for $400 premiums over issue price due to the limited availability.

Completed sales on the Internet auction site eBay can also be a good source of immediate pricing for new issues.

On eBay, a Proof 2010-W American Eagle 1-ounce platinum coin in original Mint packaging sold for $2,047 on Aug. 30, and the going range seems to be between $2,025 and $2,150, the upper end reserved for coins described by the seller as "in hand" – meaning that they have been received by the seller.

Some certified examples are selling for even more, led by a Professional Coin Grading Service Proof 70 deep cameo example in a First Strike holder that realized $2,749.75.

An example in the same grade (though designated Early Release) by Numismatic Guaranty Corp. realized $2,575. In contrast, an NGC Proof 69 deep cameo Early Release example realized $2,195.

ANA auction tests high end Barber market

2010-08-30T06:27:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the Sept. 13, 2010 issue of Coin World

The advanced markets for Barber dimes, quarter dollars and half dollars have usually been the realm of specialists, as many collectors stop after they get what they need for a type set.

That quality examples of Barber half dollars are more expensive than Barber quarter dollars or dimes serves as a factor to limit broad interest in the set; although the absence of wallet-busting rarities like the 1901-S Barber quarter dollar makes Barber half dollars a worthy challenge.

Steven Duckor, who made headlines in 2009 when he sold his spectacular Barber quarter dollar set at auction, consigned his collection of Barber half dollars to Heritage Auctions' 2010 American Numismatic Association auction.

Some market observers were skeptical as to how well his half dollar collection would do, as another major set put together by Dale Friend was recently auctioned in January 2009.

With both consignors presumably out of the market, some wondered how deep the bidding would be with 74 pricey examples hitting the market all at once.

Duckor purchased at least three of the coins offered from the 2009 Friend auction, including an 1894-O Barber half dollar graded MS-67, an 1897-S half dollar in MS-67 and a 1907-D half dollar graded MS-67+.

All three sold for less than their 2009 purchase price, with the 1907-D half dollar realizing $29,900 in 2010; a stark contrast to the $53,187.50 it realized in 2009 (and that was without the new PCGS Secure Plus designation on the slab).

Still, the prices were generally strong.

A 1901-S Barber half dollar graded MS-67+ brought $86,250 in the 2010 auction, a substantial advance from another MS-67 example that sold at an August 2009 Heritage auction for $54,625.

A 1904-S Barber half dollar graded MS-67 realized an exceptional $138,000 at the August 2010 auction.

Perhaps an eager type collector at the August 2010 auction purchased the 1905 MS-68+ Barber half dollar, the single finest certified Barber half dollar and universally considered amazing. It is pictured above, left. Its price of $132,250 seems to confirm the quality, especially in light of the other MS-68 example from Duckor's collection that realized "just" $63,250.

***
A lifelong coin aficionado, Steve has worked with ANACS (Dublin, OH), Christie's (New York, NY), Heritage Rare Coin Galleries and Heritage Auctions (Dallas, TX) and is associate editor for Coin World, the world's largest coin publication. He is also an art appraiser and dealer, and is an accredited member of the International Society of Appraisers. Visit him online at www.steveroachonline.com or www.texasartgroup.com.

$60 million in one week: ANA auctions exciting!

2010-08-23T07:28:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the September 6, 2010 issue of Coin World

If the bourse activity at the just-finished 2010 American Numismatic Association World's Fair of Money in Boston was perceived as moderate-to-good, the associated auctions both before and during the show could be characterized as good-to-great.

In total the auctions realized more than $60 million.

The week started off with Bowers and Merena Auctions' Boston Rarities Sale on Aug. 7 where the 1,750 lots offered realized a very healthy $9.3 million.

The star lot, a 1794 Flowing Hair dollar certified Mint State 64 by Numismatic Guaranty Corp., realized $1,207,500 (pictured left, image courtesy of Bowers and Merena Auctions); a strong price but within expectations for the fourth finest known example of this key issue, the finest of which just sold in a private transaction for a reported $7.85 million.

The next day, Stack's auction of the Johnson-Blue Collection and other properties realized more than $4 million.

Several days later, the Heritage Auctions' juggernaut of U.S. coin, world coin and currency auctions began with the Platinum Night session. The total for the Heritage auctions – $46 million – represented a new record total for a Heritage ANA event and, one hopes, a windfall for the ANA which at least in the past has received a percentage of the total "official" ANA auction proceeds.

While the perceived stars – including some exceptional early Massachusetts silver coins, several gold patterns and an MS-67 1931 Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagle – soared, the Heritage auctions offered a few surprises.

Perhaps the biggest surprise came when a 1944 Walking Liberty half dollar graded MS-68 by Professional Coin Grading Service realized an astounding $109,250. It is not a rare coin as more than 28 million were struck and the average grade among the more than 20,000 certified examples is MS-63.8, meaning that many exceptional coins are available.

Eleven bidders competed for the trophy – the single finest Walking Liberty half dollar certified at PCGS – and the winning bidder will now have a spectacular coin for his or her registry set.

For comparison, the lone NGC MS-68 example realized $6,900 at Heritage's March 2010 Fort Worth ANA auction.

Prices for Proof American Eagle Gold coins tumble

2010-08-17T07:08:00.003-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the Aug. 30, 2010, issue of Coin World

Proof American Eagle gold coins have provided some sparks in the marketplace this past year, but the fast fall in prices over the past several weeks serves as a reminder that what goes up usually comes down.

Some major buyers have stopped buying these and prices have fallen sharply.

For some smaller dealers who were stockpiling the coins in anticipation of continued demand, the change in the market means they have lost substantial money, for now, as the coins are now worth substantially less than what the dealers paid for them.

During July, several large dealers were paying between $1,950 and $2,000 per ounce for Proof American Eagle gold coins in original Mint packaging – the inner and outer boxes, original capsules and original certificate of authenticity with the same year as the coins.

For example, on July 14 a major wholesaler was paying $2,025 per ounce; the dealer's price gradually declined to $1,900 July 26. Then on July 27 the dealer's buy price went down to $1,850. On July 29 in the morning the dealer's buy price was $1,830 and by the afternoon it went to $1,800. On Aug. 3, the price hit $1,750 and then, with orders filled, that dealer stopped buying.

Incidentally, the price of gold on July 26 was $1,189 per ounce and the price on Aug. 3 was $1,184, meaning that the drop in demand was not directly related to the bullion market.

On Aug. 6, when gold increased to $1,205 per ounce, one dealer offered $1,650 per ounce for coins with original packaging, and for coins without the packaging, the price dropped sharply to $1,400 per ounce.

If those who are closest to the market are not buying at the high levels that have characterized these Proof issues for the last year, are they doing this because they know something that we at Coin World don't know?

On Aug. 6, the U.S. Mint told Coin World that no decision has been made as to whether Proof 2010-W American Eagle 1-ounce gold coins would be struck.

If the U.S. Mint releases Proof American Eagle gold bullion coins in 2010, supplies will increase and less pressure will be placed on the current supply, likely ending the bull market for these issues.

PCGS expands Plus designation

2010-08-09T06:11:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the August 23, 2010 issue of Coin World

The month of July closed with two bold announcements.

The first was that the Professional Numismatists Guild has adopted a definition of "coin doctoring" and the second was that Professional Coin Grading Service has expanded its Plus designation to include a broader group of submission tiers. The image is a 1910 Barber half dollar graded Mint State 66+ by PCGS, in the service's Secure Plus holder. That coin is to be offered at auction by Heritage Auction Galleries on August 11.

The first announcement will likely change little in the day-to-day lives of dealers and collectors, but the second will have broad implications in the marketplace.

The PCGS announcement alleviates a problem that the collector and dealer community had seen with the PCGS Plus grade.

Before the change, coins submitted to PCGS for grading were only evaluated for a Plus grade if they were submitted under the Secure Plus grading tier.

This created the perception in coin buyers' minds that coins housed in a PCGS Secure Plus slab without a Plus grade were inferior.

In fact, some dealers reported that non-Plus coins in PCGS Secure Plus holders were becoming challenging to sell, while the market's appetite for Plus coins seems to be growing as the coin buyers become more comfortable with the concept.

In contrast, Numismatic Guaranty Corp. has evaluated all submitted coins for the "+" designation under most tiers since adopting the "+" designation.

As NGC explains, "a coin graded NGC MS 64 + is close to the quality of a coin graded NGC 65. The + is synonymous with the term 'PQ' or 'Premium Quality.' "

The announcements serve as reminders to collectors that all coins of a given grade are not equal in terms of quality or eye appeal.

The PNG press release also is a reminder that the mechanics of the rare coin marketplace still allow for it to be profitable for "coin doctors" to destroy the originality of coins in an effort to increase their numerical grade.

One hopes that PNG dealers will conform to the requirement that they must refrain from knowingly dealing in doctored coins without fully disclosing the status to their customers.

But what – if any – impact defining "coin doctoring" will have on the market remains to be seen.

Information adds value

2010-08-02T08:44:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach

First published in the Aug. 16, 2010, issue of Coin World

Information is a key component in determining an object's value and sometimes a nugget of a object's history can substantially increase its price.

For example, one could argue that research, suggesting that a 1794 Flowing Hair dollar graded Specimen 66 by Professional Coin Grading Service was the first silver dollar ever struck by the U.S. Mint, strongly boosted the coin's importance to justify the reported $7,850,000 that it traded for in a private treaty sale.

In other words, the research elevated the coin from being a noteworthy early U.S. coin of great interest to specialists to a landmark rarity with broader appeal.

Heritage Auction Galleries plans to offer at its Boston American Numismatic Association auction in August a 1907 Indian Head gold $10 eagle – the only known Plain Edge, Wire Rim example – that is now being advertised by Heritage as "likely" the only example of his coinage that sculptor Augustus Saint-Gaudens saw before his death from cancer on Aug. 3, 1907.

Two plain edge coins were struck at the Philadelphia Mint as pattern pieces: one went to Treasury Secretary George B. Cortelyou who forwarded it to President Theodore Roosevelt, while another went to Saint-Gaudens.

Much like the 1794 "first dollar," where the research is based on plausible conclusions rather than absolute documentary evidence, Heritage acknowledges that "it is impossible to say with certainty whether it was sent to Roosevelt or Saint-Gaudens, but it is a coin of tremendous importance regardless of the answer."

Such discoveries are not uncommon in other fields such as paintings.

In 2006, a small Detroit auction house, Dumouchelles, sold a canvas depicting St. Catherine, attributed as anonymous 18th century with an estimate of $4,000 to $6,000.

Dealers around the world found it online and bid it up to $1.9 million. It is currently on the market for a price in excess of $3 million, restored and firmly attributed to 17th century French master Simon Vouet. It is pictured in its restored state.

Information about an object's history is of interest to both the scholar and the marketplace, and researchers and dealers work together to add value.

Buzz loud before Boston ANA

2010-07-26T06:07:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in Aug. 9, 2010, Coin World

The buzz before the American Numismatic Association World's Fair of Money in Boston, Aug. 10 to 14, is fantastic, and enough rarities are being offered in the related auctions to get any collector's blood pumping.

In more than a week of auctions, more than 10,000 lots will be offered, testing the depth of the current market and the reach of collectors and investors to go after top rarities. Three major auctions highlight the week.

At the Bowers and Merena Rarities auction, scheduled before the ANA convention, top lots include a bright 1794 Flowing Hair dollar, graded Mint State 64, consigned by the Cardinal Collection Educational Foundation, which recently made news for purchasing a Professional Coin Grading Service Specimen 66 example of the same coin in a private transaction for a reported $7,850,000. The foundation also consigned several other key 1794 coins to the sale.

Other top lots offered by Bowers and Merena in its auction include an 1870-S Seated Liberty dollar in Extremely Fine 40, and some fantastic patterns including two wildly impressive gilt 1877 $50 half unions.

Stack's also is hosting a pre-ANA auction that includes some great pattern coins, at least three rare Matte Proof Saint-Gaudens double eagles and a 1794 Flowing Hair dollar in Fine.

Heritage Auction Galleries is hosting the official auction of ANA and is offering the Dwight Manley Collection of early Massachusetts silver – described by Heritage as a "Registry masterpiece" – which includes an About Uncirculated New England shilling (pictured right) and magnificent examples of the 1652 Pine Tree, Oak Tree and Willow Tree shillings.

A choice group of Gobrecht dollars and an amazing set of Barber half dollars will be offered in the Heritage auction and there are plenty of rare key-date Saint-Gaudens double eagles to satisfy the market's appetite, and continuing the trend, a Very Fine 25 1794 Flowing Hair dollar.

The auctions will offer thousands of other lots in nearly all sectors of the market, high to low, rewarding collectors who have been saving their collecting budgets for this once-a-year smorgasbord.

Summer FUN Auction Results

2010-07-19T16:26:00.001-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the Aug. 2, 2010 issue of Coin World

The continued drought of major rarities in the auction marketplace was evident at the Florida United Numismatists summer show, held July 8 to 10 in Orlando.

Yet, despite absence of six-figure coins, the sale realized a healthy $7.39 million, although that number is bound to grow as Heritage counts after-auction sales in the total amount realized for an auction.

Eight bidders competed for a 1867 Shield 5-cent coin, graded Proof 65 Cameo by Numismatic Guaranty Corp. It sold for a healthy $57,500, although a similarly graded example crossed the auction block in January 2009 for $63,250.

Among the top lots were the usual pieces: rare early gold coins, 1907 Saint-Gaudens, High Relief double eagles and tough Proof gold.

But interesting collector coins did very well, too.

An About Uncirculated 53 1944-D Lincoln cent struck on a zinc-coated steel planchet realized $37,375, bringing more than the $32,200 realized when the same coin was last sold at the January 2010 FUN show auction.

Interestingly, the same consignor of the cent sold at the summer FUN show also sold an AU-55 example at a June Heritage auction for $60,375.

Some powerful coins went without buyers, including a 1907 Saint-Gaudens, High Relief double eagle in Mint State 67+, a 1930-S double eagle in MS-63 and a rare 1882 Coronet double eagle in AU-53. High consignor expectations that resulted in unmet reserves is the likely culprit, although post-auction buying may find new owners for some pieces.

A few modern issues did great, including a 2000-W Library of Congress ringed-bimetallic $10 coin graded NGC MS-67 that brought $4,887.50.

A Lincoln cent variety also had a big moment.

The finest Professional Coin Grading Service certified 1971 Lincoln, Double Die Obverse 1 cent, MS-66 red, brought $10,350. The price makes one wonder if this variety is destined for broader recognition.

It currently is left out of many major guide books, but its strong doubling and general availability – a PCGS MS-64 red example sold at auction in April 2010 for $862.50 – are both points in favor of moving it to the collecting mainstream.

Sleepy summertime for coin market?

2010-07-12T08:15:00.001-07:00

By Steve Roach

First published in the July 26, 2010, issue of Coin World

July is traditionally a sleepy month for the coin market, as dealers enjoy a week or two of summer vacation before the juggernaut that is the American Numismatic Association summer convention, set this year Aug. 10 to 14 in Boston. The picture below is a summertime scene by the French Impressionist painter Gustav Caillebotte.

When counting the pre-show and associated auctions, the ANA World's Fair of Money provides more than a week of intense activity for the market.

The introduction of the summer Florida United Numismatists show – this year July 8 to 11 in Orlando – has cut into the traditional July lull, and the raging bullion market has further cut into dealers' time for rest and recreation.

After the FUN summer show, there are no major shows until the ANA convention, but for a Professional Coin Grading Service "trade and grade" in Las Vegas, which is a pre-pre-ANA show stop for many dealers to acquire inventory to take with them to the ANA convention.

As the collectible coin market remains steady but hardly robust, demand for gold provides welcome profits for many coin shops that have seen demand for fine jewelry and collectibles – often sold with coins – decline greatly in the past year.

This year, July seems to be especially active, as dealers keep shops open to deal with public demand for gold, with gold's fluctuation keeping things interesting.

For example, just a week after a June 28 high of $1,262, gold was trading in the $1,180 range on July 6, as both domestic and global stock markets rallied and gold became less attractive to investors.

Generally, generic gold coins still haven't generated the heat that American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins and, to a lesser extent, gold modern commemorative coins continue to show in the market.

Major wholesalers are keeping busy buying large quantities of gold coins to sell to telemarketers and even individual investors are buying physical gold bullion in quantities.

Perhaps scared by the recent corrections in the stock market and signs that point to another potential economic downturn, these investors are going to local shops and buying gold in bulk, hoping to buy something durable and of lasting value.

Understanding rare coin pricing

2010-07-07T13:37:00.001-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the July 19, 2010 issue of Coin World

Sometimes, a weekly column focused on details of the market like this one appearing in Coin World needs to take a step back and discuss the basics.

It seems that the public dialogue about coins has increased recently, bolstered by high precious metal prices and a ready supply of people eager to exchange assets like coins for quick and easy cash.

Unfortunately, as one news story appearing on Page 1 of the July 12 issue of Coin World reveals, many people are choosing to sell their coins to national traveling buyers, often temporarily located at hotels, and some consumers are being ripped off.

What is equally frustrating is that a wealth of pricing information on the coin market is available for consumers in periodicals like Coin World's Coin Values and books such as Coin World's Guide to U.S. Coins or A Guide Book of United States Coins, best known as the "Red Book" – all of which are widely available at bookstores.

The prices in Coin World's Coin Values are retail prices – that is, where a willing buyer can expect to buy a coin from a willing seller at the retail level. In other words, the prices reflect what you can expect to pay at a local coin shop or at a show.

The difference between wholesale and retail is baffling for collectors and those outside of the hobby, because for coins, separate price guides exist for these two very separate markets. Wholesale prices, as reported in publications like the Coin Dealer Newsletter, or "Grey Sheet," are for dealer-to-dealer transactions.

Wholesale markets are useful to follow in that they often react to market forces much quicker than the retail level.

Yet, wholesale prices often get confused with retail. An article in a recent appraisal publication wrongly suggested that wholesale "bid" and "ask" prices accurately represent what the public can sell and buy coins for at a retail market.

Unfortunately, understanding the delicate balance between buying and selling prices is not easy, but understanding what retail prices are will prevent consumers from being egregiously taken advantage of.

Stickers & "+" Signs

2010-07-05T07:39:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the July 12, 2010, issue of Coin World

The advent of the "plus" grade, officially recognized by Professional Coin Grading Service and Numismatic Guaranty Corp., has thrown a wrinkle into a market already trying to figure out what premium to give to coins with a Certified Acceptance Corp. sticker.

A CAC sticker on a slab means that the coin meets CAC's "strict quality standards."

The acceptance that not all Mint State 63 or MS-64 coins are alike is well-received, and the market continues to discount gold coins with copper spots and decide what premiums to add to plus and CAC-stickered coins, while balancing what collectors think of PCGS Secure Plus evaluated coins that did not receive a "+" grade.

If all of this makes your head spin, you're not alone. Consider this:

For a PCGS MS-64 Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagle, six distinct markets currently exist: 1) an MS-64 without spots; 2) an MS-64 with spots; 3) an MS-64 +; 4) an MS-64 CAC; 5) an MS-64+ CAC; and 6) an MS-64 in a Secure Plus holder that did not receive a plus sign.

Continuing with the MS-64 Saint-Gaudens double eagle example, one major wholesaler is selling non-CAC coins near the dealer-to-dealer wholesale bid and selling CAC coins for a $60 premium.

With what seems to be a glut of generic gold coins on the market, pieces with copper spots are increasingly tough to sell without a hearty discount. A major dealer is offering a nearly $100 discount on MS-64 Saint-Gaudens $20 double eagles with copper spots.

When PCGS evaluates a coin in its "Secure Plus" service, it places a shield in the left part of the label. A + sign is added to the grade for any coins submitted under this service tier that PCGS graders deem deserving. The market is still deciding if coins that have been evaluated in the Secure Plus grading tier but did not receive a "Plus" are damaged goods.

Coins without a + can still get CAC stickers, as PCGS and CAC are independent organizations.

Bids on the wholesale trading networks are inconsistent in terms of assessing premiums for PCGS Secure Plus coins, with the strongest market for gold seeming to be for MS-65+ Saint-Gaudens double eagles.

Coin market hungry for rare coins

2010-06-23T13:40:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach

First published in the July 5, 2010, issue of Coin World

Collectors are hungry for genuinely rare coins, whether they be key large cents, deep mirror prooflike Morgan dollars or rare branch Mint Proof coins, and they are willing to spend what it takes to get what they want.

Middle Date Coronet cents, struck 1816 to 1839, historically have been viewed as less "sexy" than the Early Date cents of 1793 to 1814. The second auction of the Dan Holmes Collection, offered for sale on May 30 by Ira and Larry Goldberg, produced strong prices for rarities and nonrarities alike.

While part two lacked the million-dollar rarities of the first auction in September 2009, its strong prices showed a built-up hunger in the market for hard-to-find coins.

The Heritage June Long Beach auction realized nearly $10 million, with the top coin being an 1866 Seated Liberty, With Motto dollar, graded Proof 67 Star cameo by Numismatic Guaranty Corp. It brought $69,000.

What is remarkable is that the auction achieved a nearly eight-digit total without any "great rarities" or even any coins cracking the six-figure mark.

Market commentary is often focused at the top end of the market, but an auction like the Heritage sale shows that there is palpable demand at the mid- and upper-mid levels as well, even when there are no individual headliners.

The Heritage Long Beach auction included a strong run of rare deep mirror prooflike Morgan dollars, including 1891-O and 1892-O Morgan dollars, graded Mint State 65 DMPL. Both brought $57,500.

The coins were the highlight of a group that was exhibited at several shows as part of a tour sponsored by Professional Coin Grading Service.

The prices on the DMPL coins were very strong. One can't be sure if the provenance aided in the strong prices, but the auction certainly exposed the coins to a broad collector base.

Another special coin that has changed hands recently is an 1876-CC Seated Liberty dime graded Proof 66 by PCGS. In its market report, New Jersey dealer Legend Numismatics wrote that it paid in excess of $200,000 for the branch Mint Proof, and that the firm "instantly" sold it, with four serious buyers interested in the dime.

Proof American Eagles weather the market

2010-06-22T13:39:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the June 28, 2010, issue of Coin World

This column has focused on Proof American Eagle coins several times over the past year, most recently on March 15, because the markets for them move up and down quickly and dramatically, with clear price points to follow.

While dealers' buy prices for the Proof American Eagle gold coins have not quite caught up with the market's recent wholesale height of $2,200 per ounce for Proof American Eagle gold coins in their original boxes with certificates of authenticity, they have rebounded to a stable level where market makers are buying them at up to $1,930 per ounce, well above the January low of $1,425.

The June 21 issue of Coin World featured several advertisements from national dealers offering to buy these coins from the public – a sure sign that the market for these is "hot."

Proof American Eagle silver coins have weathered the recent bullion fluctuations even better, with several dealers advertising on wholesale trading networks having buy prices as high as $55.50 for coins assuming original packaging. In early 2009 these were trading wholesale at the $35 level and after reaching a high at the end of 2009 of $55, they dropped to a low of $42 at one point this year.

The U.S.Mint has indicated that it may not be producing Proof 2010-W American Eagle silver coins, meaning that the supply is fixed for now.

As prices for the common examples rise, several of the tougher issues in the series have seen their premiums evaporate.

For example in early 2009, Proof 1993, 1996 and 1997 American Eagle silver coins were trading at two to three times the price of a common Proof issue. Today, that premium has shrunk to between $10 and $20 per coin.

Even the venerable Proof 1995-W American Eagle silver dollar has fallen, with a recent example graded Proof 67 selling for $1,897.50 at a June 4 Heritage auction. Two similar examples sold in 2009 for $2,530 and $2,645.

Admittedly, with Proof 69 examples readily found, the market for a Proof 67 coin is a bit smaller, but the transaction still represents one of the least expensive examples of this key issue to be sold in recent memory.

Many possible outcomes for PCGS lawsuit

2010-06-21T13:38:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the June 21, 2010, issue of Coin World

The Professional Coin Grading Service suit against individuals it has named as coin "doctors" or their helpers has several potential outcomes.

For one outcome, it may encourage coin dealers to not "doctor" coins prior to submitting them for grading. For another, it may cause coin doctors to refine their techniques when "doctoring" coins.

A more unpleasant scenario is that the lawsuit may shift attention away from coins being a safe and solid store of value, and turn the attention to the subjective nature of grading and the existence of a sometimes shifting standard for grading.

The definition of coin "doctoring" as mentioned in the filing is specific, yet broad enough to leave much open to interpretation as to what constitutes "doctoring" and what is more akin to preservation and conservation.

Re-engraving bands on the reverse of Winged Liberty Head dimes and creating full head Standing Liberty quarter dollars (see image above, right) are obvious forms of "doctoring," as evidenced by both general opinion and the examples cited in the lawsuit.

But where is the fine line between standard dipping of silver coins and the prohibited "treating coins with chemicals"?

The PCGS Coin Sniffer represents an effort by PCGS to analyze the surfaces of a coin to detect foreign substances. It will be interesting to read about the buybacks that may accompany this new technology, as under the PCGS Guarantee, PCGS often buys back coins that it mistakenly certified.

The names of "coin doctors" are an open secret among most dealers, and like it or not, most dealers – including many who personally disapprove of coin "doctoring" – will continue to buy and sell from the "doctors" as long as there is money to be made.

Ultimately, PCGS’s decision go after several specific dealers for a problem that is more widespread than just a handful of individuals working together to "doctor" coins may have long-term negative effects on the rare coin market by diminishing the confidence of the consumer.

But, universally positive, reduction of "doctored" coins in the marketplace will undoubtedly help the market in the long run.

Record setting 1794 dollar

2010-06-01T14:54:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the June 14, 2010 issue of Coin World

On May 13, as verified by an invoice provided to Coin World, a 1794 Flowing Hair silver dollar, graded Specimen 66 by Professional Coin Grading Service sold to the Cardinal Collection Educational Foundation with a listed price of $7.85 million. A 1933 Saint-Gaudens double eagle that sold in 2002 for $7,590,020 is still the most expensive coin sold at auction.

The prior week, on May 4, Pablo Picasso's painting Nude, Green Leaves and Bust sold at auction for $106.5 million, marking a record for a work of art sold at auction, although private treaty sales are rumored to have moved some paintings for up to $150 million.

Record prices bring media attention to a collecting area, and the Picasso record has inspired many journalists to say that the recession in the art market is over and that the market is hungry as ever for top-quality items of lasting quality and rarity.

Whether the 1794 dollar transaction will have any positive impact in the general coin market is yet to be seen, although it certainly vouches for a degree of confidence in the market for major rarities, evidences of which have been few in auctions since January.

The buyer of the 1794 Flowing Hair dollar, the nonprofit Cardinal Collection Educational Foundation, focuses "on the study and publication of information on the Early Coinage of the United States of America."

This is a huge purchase for the foundation, which in 2008 had assets of $6.6 million and spent nearly $2.3 million on "accessions to the foundation's body of numismatic material used for research, publications, and displays."

In 2008 the foundation also spent more than $2.3 million on "numismatic educational programs" according to the foundation's 990-PF tax filing, nearly the same amount as the larger American Numismatic Association spent on publications and education that year.

Is a more expensive coin waiting to be the first $10 million coin and is there a buyer willing to pay the necessary funds? My money is on the unique Saint-Gaudens 1907 Indian Head double eagle pattern, which has not been offered for sale publicly for decades.

More and more coin shows fill weekends

2010-05-24T13:38:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the June 7, 2010 issue of Coin World

If dealers wanted, they could attend a regional- or national-level coin show every weekend of the year. Few dealers want to be on the road that much, so selection is a necessity and shows must prove their usefulness to stay vibrant.

In between Central States Numismatic Society's Milwaukee show and the June Long Beach Coin, Stamp & Collectibles Expo, three shows illustrate different aspects of the show circuit.

From May 12 to May 14, Professional Coin Grading Service sponsored its Las Vegas Invitational in Nevada. It's a small coin show, with fewer than 20 tables, although its market impact is potentially much greater as many of the major wholesale “players” and major collectors attend.

From May 14 to May 15, the Texas Numismatic Association held its 50th anniversary convention in Fort Worth. It featured an auction of coins, paper currency and autographs and documents by Spink-Smythe that realized more than $700,000.

To attract consignments, the firm offered consignors of more than $100,000 in material round trip airfare to Fort Worth and a free two-night hotel stay.

The inaugural Whitman Coins and Collectibles Nashville Expo was held from May 20 to 22 at the convention center in that Tennessee city. The Nashville Expo joins Whitman's established and popular thrice-yearly Baltimore shows and its fall Philadelphia show.

Nashville has been in the news over the past few weeks for its horrific flooding, but Whitman has tried to assure collectors and dealers that the convention area was unharmed by the record-breaking flash floods after the Cumberland River crested at 12 feet above flood stage. Nashville is pictured above.

Are there too many shows? Depends on who you ask. Each show caters to a different market.

The PCGS Las Vegas show focuses on high-end or high-volume dealers and traders and the sophisticated retail client.

The TNA show is perhaps more local in spirit, with more vest-pocket and weekend dealers, mostly from Texas and surrounding states.

The Nashville Expo is in the middle, with a blend of national-level dealers and regional dealers.

Ultimately, the market needs all three of these kinds of shows to thrive.

Gold record set, but generics rather cold

2010-05-17T07:30:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the May 31, 2010 issue of Coin World

As jittery investors react to global economic troubles, they are heading to gold as a safe haven asset.

On May 12, gold traded as high as $1,245.40 an ounce, based predominantly on an increase in demand, rather than a weakening of the U.S. dollar. The price represented a new record high for gold.

Despite the increased price of gold, the premiums for generic U.S. gold coins have been somewhat erratic, with prices showing a mix of up and down movement.

For Coronet gold $20 double eagles, while prices for circulated examples have gone up with the current rise in gold, Mint State examples are trading between dealers at generally substantial discounts to six months ago.

A major wholesale market maker's gold sell list provides examples.

In the past six months, MS-63 Coronet double eagles have fallen in price 17 percent, MS-64 examples have declined 22 percent and MS-65 examples have fallen 23 percent, all while gold increased nearly 5 percent.

Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagles show similar drops in prices in Mint State grades.

For the smaller denomination gold coins, the declines when compared to six months ago are nearly across the board. The drops are smallest on circulated and low-Mint State grades, which trade for lower premiums over their gold content than their more expensive Mint State counterparts.

Part of the reason for the decline in wholesale prices for generic gold coins while gold prices go up is perhaps that large market-making dealers are reluctant to tie up operating capital inventorying these relatively expensive coins, as long as there is so much uncertainty in the gold market.

But these wholesale prices do not always translate neatly into retail price reductions. Many dealers who do not deal in large volumes of generic gold may raise retail prices slightly in response to the increase in gold's value.

The current market still could translate to opportunities for savvy collectors to acquire high-end generic gold at levels discounted from their 2009 prices, as it appears that buyers can now afford to be choosey in the coins they select.

Off market at CSNS show

2010-05-12T05:28:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the May 24, 2010 Coin World

The market at the just-completed Central States Numismatic Society convention, held from April 27 to May 1 in Milwaukee, was certainly odd.

One thing odd about the show was that many dealers had already been there for three days before the public was allowed in, making pure retail sales tough to gauge. Tuesday afternoon was Professional Numismatists Guild setup day and Wednesday was PNG Day, with access limited to PNG dealers, invited guests and holders of a $75 Professional Preview badge. Thursday was a Professional Preview day for the holders of the $75 badge.

The public was not invited to the bourse floor until Friday at 10 a.m.

With many dealers packing up and leaving on Friday evening and Saturday morning, this left collectors with a short window to make their purchases and created a disincentive for collectors to travel to Milwaukee, especially in light of the upcoming Whitman Nashville Expo scheduled for May 20 to 22, which has dealer policies perhaps more friendly to collectors.

Heritage Auction Galleries' Platinum Night auction also proved odd when compared to prior years. The top lot, a 1921 Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagle graded Mint State 63 by Professional Coin Grading Service, realized $218,500 – the same price that a comparable example sold for at auction in October 2006.

While the individual price levels in the auction were fine, the overall value of the sale was sharply down from past Platinum Night auctions. At $218,500, the top lot in the auction would not have placed in the top 10 of either the 2009 or 2008 CSNS Platinum Night auctions or the 2010, 2009 or 2008 Florida United Numismatists Platinum Night auctions. The $218,500 price would have been only the 25th most expensive coin at the 2008 FUN Platinum Night auction.

If anything seems to confirm dealers' constant grumbling that too few quality coins are in the market, it was the overall weakness of the offered property in the Platinum Night auction, generally among the most highly anticipated sales of the year, although prices achieved for the offered material fell within expectations.

Some State quarter prices up

2010-05-11T05:27:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the May 10, 2010 Coin World

The U.S. Mint credits the State quarter dollar series with bringing millions of new collectors to the hobby, most eagerly seeking the coins from change in circulation.

Some collectors of the coins from circulation also sought collector versions, including Proof pieces. In the past several years, some Proof State quarter dollars have emerged as more expensive than others.

For the Proof quarter dollars, the most expensive by far, are the 1999 silver issues: Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Georgia and Connecticut. Their higher prices are in part due to the current high cost of the 1999-S Silver Proof set; the individual issues trade at nearly $2,000 a roll.

The Proof 2001-S silver and copper-nickel clad issues are also expensive, at around $500 and $250 per roll respectively.

A roll of common Proof State silver quarter dollars can be found for $150 while a roll of the most common 2000 Proof clad issues can be found for $50.

Generally for the Proof State quarter dollars, both silver and copper-nickel clad, all five states within a given year trade at around the same level. There are two odd outliers: for 2008 issues, the Hawaii quarter dollar trades at $250 a roll while the other four states' issues linger at the $80 a roll level in copper-nickel clad Proof. The 2002 Ohio quarter dollar trades at $150 a roll in copper-nickel clad and $400 a roll in silver, nearly double the price of the other 2002 issues.

When compared to Proofs, the differences in prices for Mint State circulation strikes are more subtle. Some of the semi-key coins that trade for premiums are the 2003 Illinois quarter dollars from the Philadelphia and Denver Mints, which approach $50 a roll. Mint State rolls of 2002 Tennessee quarter dollars from both Mints approach $40 and the 1999 Georgia and Connecticut rolls approach $30 a roll.

At the very top end of the market are some certified Proof 70 coins, the most remarkable price being for a 1999-S Delaware silver quarter dollar graded Proof 70 deep cameo by Professional Coin Grading Service that brought $17,250 at a 2007 Heritage auction. At the time, PCGS had graded just 16 examples in that grade, but the number has since increased to 53. In 2009, Heritage sold a Delaware copper-nickel clad example in the same grade, with a PCGS population of 70, for less than $1,000.

Market reacts to PCGS+

2010-04-26T08:37:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the May 10, 2010 issue of Coin World

The rare coin market continues to adjust to the presence of new Professional Coin Grading Service Secure Plus coins and PCGS has posted on its Web site an FAQ with nearly 100 questions that its clients have asked about the new service.

So, if you don't fully understand the new PCGS Secure Plus grading tier, don't fret. Apparently, you're not alone.

Don Willis, PCGS president, commented that the firm "arbitrarily" decided to limit the new plus grade to select grades between Extremely Fine 45 and Mint State 68, saying that for MS-69 coins, "As the grades get higher, the gap between them shrinks. The difference between a 69 and 70 can be one tiny tick. I honestly don't know how we can slice it much thinner."

Willis also addressed a concern that the Secure Plus holder would "lock" a coin into a given grade. He answered that coins in PCGS Secure Plus holders are not more locked into their grade than coins in a regular holder. He said "every coin that is submitted to PCGS for regrading will be evaluated by our graders without them knowing if the coin was previously graded, and if so, what that grade was."

He further clarified that a plus designation will require a coin to be in the top 10 to 20 percent of a grade. For collectors who are seeking validation that a coin is solid for the grade, Willis wrote, "I think there is a firm that puts little stickers on coins that are solid for the grade," referring to Certified Acceptance Corp., a firm that stickers coins that have been verified as meeting CAC's quality standards.

While few Secure Plus coins have appeared in online auctions, looking at the results of a Heritage Exclusively Internet Gold Auction that closed on April 14 shows that coins awarded a plus grade are selling for a very slight premium.

For example, a 1900 Coronet gold $20 double eagle graded PCGS MS-64+ realized $2,601 while an example grading PCGS MS-64 brought $2,576.

Three 1924 Saint-Gaudens double eagles graded PCGS MS-65+ realized $2,022, $2,022 and $2,056 while four MS-65 examples brought $2,000, $2,001, $2,022 and $2,022.

Gold to dominate CSNS Platinum night auction

2010-04-19T14:08:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the May 3, 2010 issue of Coin World

The upcoming Heritage Auction Galleries Platinum Night sale, to be held at the Central States Numismatic Society convention in Milwaukee on April 29, offers the next big test of the auction market.

The contents of the auction also seem to confirm what many have observed over the past several months: that sellers are simply not offering as many great coins in the marketplace compared to the prior year. It also shows that dealers who are sitting on great rarities aren't putting them into auctions.

But, something else that a review of the lots illustrates is that sellers do have confidence in one area: big, sexy, high-grade rare gold coins.

Unlike the 2009 CSNS Platinum Night in Cincinnati, which featured an 1804 Draped Bust silver dollar that realized $2.3 million, or the 2008 installment, which featured another 1804 dollar that realized more than $3.7 million, the 2010 CSNS Platinum Night lacks a million-dollar head turner that will generate heat.

Instead, at the most expensive level, consignors have put in the kinds of coins that have been selling strongly at recent auctions: rare and high grade Saint-Gaudens $20 double eagles, early gold type, high-grade 1915-S Panama-Pacific International Exposition $50 commemoratives and Proof $4 Stella patterns, such as the one depicted to the right (image from Heritage Auction Galleries).

The makeup of the top lots will be comparable to Heritage's last major auction, held at the March American Numismatic Association National Money Show in Fort Worth, Texas.

A look back at the most expensive lots at the 2009 CSNS Platinum Night reveals a very different makeup from the 2010 installment. In 2009, the top tier was occupied by mostly classic silver rarities from the Joseph C. Thomas Collection.

What does the dominance of gold coins but no ultra rarities in the Heritage ANA and CSNS auctions signify? Perhaps that well-heeled sellers with the high-level coins are holding steady, unconcerned with selling at the current market levels until confidence improves.

But, at least at auction, it appears that gold is king and that gold rarities are the one place that sellers are willing to test the market at auction.

The "Secure" in PCGS' new Secure Plus grading tier

2010-04-12T13:37:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the April 26, 2010, issue of Coin World

Last week's market analysis focused on the possible market impact of the new "plus" grade at Professional Coin Grading Service and Numismatic Guaranty Corp. This week we will focus on the second prong of the PCGS announcement of Secure Plus. Specifically, Secure Plus uses digital technology to capture a unique "fingerprint" of each coin, to be entered into a permanent data base.

The system is supposed to catch whether a coin has been artificially toned or processed in an effort to get a higher grade, also called coin doctoring. PCGS officials have said that for Secure-Plus coins, "Neither the coin's appearance nor its grade can be changed without flagging the system."

Secure-Plus is optional for all coins except for coins submitted under two grading tiers: Rarities, coins submitted with a maximum coin value of $200,000, and Ultra Rarities, with unlimited values. PCGS Secure Plus is the only option for these coins.

PCGS has stated the technology will provide a better understanding of rarity for top coins by eliminating resubmissions, and the problem of the same coin reappearing on the market – with different looks and grades at different times – will be eliminated.

Ultimately, PCGS believes that the program has the potential to achieve five goals: "More precise and consistent grading; improved detection of altered coins; less chance of 'gradeflation'; more likely recovery if a Secure Plus coin is ever lost or stolen; and increased value of high-end coins within each grade."

The digital fingerprinting concept also has the potential to protect the high end of the market from the dangerous counterfeit coins emerging from China. But, because for most coins it is an opt-in process, it will take some time to determine what its impact will be, and generally, Chinese counterfeiters have not successfully replicated high-end coins.

Additionally, it remains to be seen whether dealers and major auction houses will use the Secure Plus tier as it may alienate one of the key groups of coin buyers and bidders at auction – the coin doctors who pay strong premiums for coins they can upgrade.

PCGS' 'Big one' bang or bust?

2010-04-05T05:20:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the April 19, 2010 issue of Coin World

Professional Coin Grading Services' March 25 announcement of a new grade designation of a + sign that will "unlock value" for 15 to 20 percent of coins within 11 grades between Extremely Fine 45 and Mint State 68 will change the market, but how?

Numismatic Guaranty Corp. announced the same day that it too would add the + sign to high-end coins.

PCGS had a lot riding on its announcement and attracted plenty of speculation as to what this "big one" (PCGS's term for the announcement during weeks of promotion) would be: Was PCGS going to start grading to a decimal point? Would the firm adopt a 100-point grading scale? Release a completely new holder to combat the problem with counterfeit holders? Would PCGS return to the computer grading that it began in the 1990s?

Ultimately, the announcement was a logical adoption of a fact of the market, that some coins are nicer than others, even within a given grade.

Certified Acceptance Corp. for several years has used stickers that indicate that a coin has been verified as meeting CAC's "stringent quality standards." That the market has seemed to embrace the CAC stickers indicates that collectors wanted a reliable way to differentiate quality within a grade.

Ultimately, it is up to dealers and collectors to decide whether they accept the concept of a + sign as an indicator of premium quality. However, how much extra will they pay for a + coin? Will this be a consistent premium or will it be different for each issue?

With NGC joining PCGS in using a + sign, it means that there will be enough coins of many issues to form a market. But since it is an opt-in program, where submitters must pay extra to get the new service, at what value point will the + sign be relevant?

If anything, it will be very interesting to see the results as auctions feature comparable lots of + and non + coins for price comparisons, and to see how dealer trading networks adapt to this new development.

The other major prong of the announcement is that PCGS unveiled technology aimed at combating coin doctors. More on this second point will appear in next week's market analysis.

Error Coins Soar on eBay

2010-03-29T05:55:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the April 12, 2010 issue of Coin World

EBay continues to provide a vibrant market for rare coins. As reported in the April 5 Coin World, a 2004-D Wisconsin, Extra Leaf High quarter dollar graded Mint State 67 by Professional Coin Grading Service was sold on March 11 on eBay for $10,000.

It was to some a very surprising price, but it is undoubtedly a condition rarity as it is one of just two graded MS-67 by PCGS

The market for these Wisconsin quarter dollar variations has shown strong legs in the past five years, although looking at auction records from 2006 to the present shows a decline in value for commonly collected grades of MS-64 though MS-66.

For example, a Numismatic Guaranty Corp. MS-64 example of the Extra Leaf High coin sold on eBay for $189 in March, while a PCGS MS-64 sold at Heritage Auctions for $104 in February. Examples of this coin at the same grade generally realized $300 in 2005 to 2007. Now a bit more affordable, the variations are still widely collected.

In another noteworthy sale, an extremely rare error, a 2008 John Quincy Adams dollar struck on a 5-cent coin planchet and graded MS-67 by PCGS, realized $16,100.

To put the strength of this price into perspective, the most expensive single U.S. coin sold on eBay in the past several weeks was a 1907 Saint-Gaudens, High Relief double eagle that realized $20,107.

Among the more high-profile coins offered on eBay that have not found buyers is a 1995-W American Eagle silver dollar graded PCGS Proof 70 deep cameo that went unsold at $69,695.70, an MS-63 1927-S Saint-Gaudens double eagle that went without a bid at $54,500 and a 1793 Flowing Hair, Wreath cent graded AU-55 by PCGS that found no buyer at $45,000.

But, the audience on eBay at the lower tier is thriving. Modern Mint products, such as gold and silver American Eagles, Proof and Uncirculated Mint sets, and certified coins all have robust markets.

Concern about Chinese counterfeits has cooled down lower-value uncertified circulated coins, as deceptive replicas from Chinese sellers have made the area problematic and have scared away some new buyers.

Grading changes ahead?

2010-03-22T06:53:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the April 5, 2010 Coin World Special Edition

The basic model of rare coin grading for the two largest grading services, Professional Coin Grading Service and Numismatic Guaranty Corp., has remained the same since the firms were started in 1986 and 1987, respectively.

But some major changes are brewing that could soon change the way rare coins are graded.

PCGS- and NGC-graded coins have the most fluid marketability in both sight-seen (meaning dealers can view the coins before buying) and sight-unseen (dealers choose to accept a coin in a holder at a given grade, regardless of how frumpy the coin is) markets. Thus, any changes to their grading are carefully watched.

For several weeks, PCGS has been touting that on March 25 it will announce "the big one" – a new concept for its grading services that in press releases company officials have called the "next step" that is "going to change coin grading for the better" and "will totally revolutionize the coin grading business."

One can only speculate as to the nature of this development or the impact it will have on the market, but it will likely be a game-changer.

PCGS slabs especially have been the target of Chinese counterfeiters producing fake slabs housing fake coins. The counterfeiters duplicate the unique certification number for a genuine PCGS slab, adding to the deceptiveness.

In April, NGC will launch a service to have metal composition appear on the label for pattern pieces, introducing also a greater role for metallurgic analysis in its coin grading and authentication process. This is a critical step for properly attributing these patterns and so creating a better understanding of them as, once a coin or pattern is slabbed, analysis requires destroying the slab and reattributing the coin.

NGC will also launch a new version of its Collectors Society this summer with enhanced functionality for collector members.

As Chinese counterfeiters improve their skills, and in the absence of any government intervention to stop the flow of counterfeits into the country, the grading services are learning and adjusting to protect the integrity of their slabs, safeguard the hobby, and in doing so, protect their revenue sources.

Off-quality coins a drag on market, but some rarities soar

2010-03-15T07:38:00.000-07:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the March 29, 2010 Coin World

The annual March Whitman Coin & Collectibles Baltimore Expo tests the market as it is the first major show for many dealers and East Coast collectors after the Florida United Numismatists show in January.
At this year's March Whitman Baltimore expo, dealer consensus seems to be that off-quality coins are very hard to sell to retail clients, but at the right price many less than stellar coins can still find buyers on the sight-unseen markets.

A look at the auction prices realized by the Bowers & Merena auction reveals a continuance of the selective market that was seen at this past January's FUN show, with buyers readily passing on coins that don't meet their quality standards. Consignor reserves (minimum prices set by the consignor) generally keep coins from selling too cheaply.

A high point of the auction was the sale of a 1901-S Barber quarter dollar graded Mint State 68 by Professional Coin Grading Service (pictured). It was described in the catalog as the finest graded. It sold for $327,750, including buyer's fee, to David Lawrence Rare Coins. For such a rare issue, the 1901-S Barber quarter dollar is surprisingly available in MS-65 and higher condition, with gem examples making at least 10 separate auction appearances in the past decade.

DLRC Auctions had auctioned a Numismatic Guaranty Corp. MS-67 example in May 2006 for $109,250, while Heritage sold a PCGS MS-67 piece for $149,500 in January 2005 and a PCGS MS-65 for $120,750 in January 2007.

But rarities, even ones of similar quality and rarity, are not created equal. Heritage auctioned a 1913-S Barber quarter dollar, PCGS MS-68, again the sole MS-68 example by PCGS with no NGC MS-68 pieces, for $86,250 in April 2009. That same example sold for $172,500 in January 2005.

The difference is that the 1901-S Barber quarter dollar is well-known as a rare and expensive key, and it has been called the rarest regular issue silver coin of the 20th century, with a demand that extends beyond the specialist into the greater realm of trophy coins. In contrast, the MS-68 1913-S Barber quarter is of greater interest to the quarter specialist.

Relative value key point in pricing MS-65 Morgan dollars

2010-03-08T05:22:00.001-08:00

By Steve Roach

First published in the March 22, 2010 Coin World

Recently a reader asked why common-date certified Mint State 65 Morgan dollars retail for around $150, when 1-ounce silver rounds retail for several dollars over the spot price of an ounce of silver. The answer is that a finite number of Morgan dollars is available, while availability of silver rounds is generally unlimited.

The increased interest in bullion over the past year has had a mildly positive effect on common Mint State Morgan dollars, which are often traded in large groups at the wholesale level.

The wholesale price is often referred to as "bid." When dealers buy easily interchangeable coins, like common MS-65 Morgan dollars, they will generally pay less than bid. This is referred to as "back of bid."

If a coin dealer quotes a buy price as "$20 back of bid," that means he or she will pay $20 less than the published wholesale bid price. Coin World's Coin Values reports prices for the retail coin market, the price at which one would expect to purchase the coin retail.

The market is strongest for generic MS-65 dollars certified by Professional Coin Grading Service and Numismatic Guaranty Corp., with similarly certified examples by ANACS and Independent Coin Grading often selling at a discount.

The quintessential MS-65 Morgan dollar is the 1881-S coin. In MS-65, PCGS has certified 44,175 and NGC has certified 43,615. The two services have graded nearly 30,000 1881-S dollars finer.

This seems like a large number, until one compares it with the mintages of American Eagle silver bullion coins or the production of private silver rounds, of which millions are made each year.

As the reader pointed out, silver rounds are large and flashy, and grading is generally not an issue. But, the reader also pointed out that the Morgan dollars have a historical element that silver rounds cannot duplicate, and that an MS-65 Morgan dollar will likely never meet the melting pot.

Issues of relative value are central to coin pricing. While MS-65 Morgan dollars are common, when compared to silver rounds or American Eagle silver bullion coins, they are proportionally rare, and thus command a substantial premium.

American Eagle gold and silver coins market update

2010-03-01T06:21:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in the March 15, 2010, issue of Coin World

Unlike the market for classic United States coins, where the market is becoming increasingly picky about quality, the market for modern coins still in their government packages is more about supply and demand than connoisseurship.

The past several months have seen wild fluctuations in the prices of Proof American Eagle gold coins and to a lesser extent the Proof American Eagle silver counterparts. Heavy demand at the wholesale level is driving this market.

At the apex of the Proof American Eagle market several months ago, dealers were paying $2,200 per ounce for Proof American Eagle gold coins in their original boxes with certificates of authenticity.

The prices fell rapidly in January to a low of $1,425 several weeks ago and have rebounded to a more stable $1,580 per ounce at present. It does not appear that the wild market that brought $2,200 per ounce gold American Eagles will return anytime soon.

The recent decline in metal prices also affected Proof American Eagle silver coins, dropping wholesale buy prices to $42 per coin at one point – again assuming that the coins have original boxes and COAs. Today, the Proof American Eagle silver coins are trading for $52 at the wholesale level, with some room to move up.

The premiums on the Proof 2008 American Eagle silver coins have relaxed a bit, as has the market's appetite for 2008-S Proof sets.

Another robust area is in key-date Mint State American Eagle $25 half-ounce gold bullion coins. These have low mintages and are difficult to acquire in any quantities.

For example, while dealers typically purchase common American Eagle gold $25 bullion coins for $620, a major wholesaler is paying $1,075 for 1990 examples and $1,600 for 1991 issues, and he is willing to buy one to 100 of them, certified or not.

The 1990 and 1991 issues have very low mintages, 31,000 and 24,100 respectively. In contrast, nearly 600,000 were struck in 1986. Retail prices will adjust accordingly.

The Mint is releasing 2010 American Eagle silver bullion coins, although the delivery dates to authorized purchasers were delayed. Wholesalers are selling 2010 issues for $2.75 over the spot price of silver.

Three cent coins have their fans

2010-02-22T05:36:00.003-08:00

By Steve Roach

First published in the March 8, 2010 issue of Coin World

The copper-nickel 3-cent coin, struck from 1865 to 1889, is among the more easily-forgotten U.S. issues. From a market prospective, the series is rarely hot, and examples don’t often generate record prices or headlines when offered for sale.

Three primary classes buy these coins: noncollectors who want one as a novelty, collectors who want one as a type coin and collectors who focus on the series.

Low-grade circulated examples, even those with problems, are always in demand because the denomination is generally unfamiliar. Simply put, most noncollectors are surprised to learn that a 3-cent coin was ever struck, along with 2-cent pieces, and many are happy to accept a 3-cent coin in any condition as a novelty.

The demand for low-grade copper-nickel 3-cent coins has resulted in steady increases in prices over the years.

For many active collectors, having a single attractive and problem-free example of the type is sufficient to meet their interests. Collector demand means prices for Fine through About Uncirculated examples have held steady.

Those who desire a Mint State or Proof example find plenty of examples to choose from, as many were saved.

Type issues from 1865 to 1870 are especially common, with high mintages and survival rates. Issues from 1871 to 1876 sell for similar prices, but are somewhat scarcer, offering buyers greater value.

Finally, some collectors specialize in the series, attracted to it by the lack of extremely expensive examples to serve as completion barriers.

The key for the series is the Proof-only 1877 coin, with a mintage of 510 pieces. A Proof 65 cameo example sold at a January 2010 auction for $3,105. The Proof 1878 3-cent coin is next in line with just 2,350 pieces.

Circulated business strike examples from 1883 to 1887 are among the toughest coins to find in the series, although their Proof counterparts can be located without much trouble. Mint State 65 and MS-66 examples have recently shown price increases.

Robust attendance, declining gold + bad weather creates mixed Long Beach coin show

2010-02-15T07:34:00.000-08:00

By Steve Roach
First published in Coin World

Robust public attendance at the Feb. 4 to 6 Long Beach Coin, Stamp & Expo, in California fueled by the $10 million Ship of Gold display blended with rapidly declining bullion markets and winter weather that affected the travel plans of many participants, to create a mixed show.
By all accounts, public attendance was strong, with registration lines circling the convention center at several times during the convention. By Friday's end, collectors had eagerly snatched up all of the copies of the Feb. 8 Coin World Special Editions featuring the Ship of Gold distributed from Coin World's table at the show

If only the gold market had cooperated. While gold reached a high price of $1,158 an ounce Jan. 11, and approached that on Feb. 2 at $1,118.50 an ounce, it tumbled on Feb. 5 to $1,052.25 while silver fell $1.62 an ounce during the same period, reaching a low of $15.14 on Feb. 8.
Such volatility does not make for comfortable buyers at either the wholesale or retail level.

The wholesale buy-prices for both certified and uncertified gold coins have shown dramatic drops over the past week, and even at those reduced bids there was a reluctance to buy at the Long Beach Expo.

Another factor that surely affected the show was harsh winter weather on the East Coast, which dumped as much as several feet of snow into major metropolitan areas. This wreaked havoc on flight patterns, forcing dealers to leave early, or in some cases, stay in Long Beach a bit longer than expected.

The cool market for generic gold coins had little impact on the numismatic gold material in the Heritage Long Beach auction, with its four large gold ingots from the SS Central America finding buyers. Also sold in the auction was an example of the "near-mythic" 1849-C Coronet, Open Wreath gold dollar, graded Extremely Fine 45 by Numismatic Guaranty Corp., one of just five confirmed examples, which realized a healthy $218,500.

Another gold dollar, dated 1875 and graded Mint State 66 by Professional Coin Grading Service (pictured above), brought $109,250, showing that the market's appetite for rare gold is not just limited to the rare Saint-Gaudens double eagles that have occupied headlines of late.