ANA coin auction week at $71M, over 16,000 lots offered

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the September 5, 2011, Special Edition issue of Coin World

The just-finished American Numismatic Association’s World’s Fair of Money in Rosemont, Ill., was nearly universally praised by dealers as a rousing success, buttressed by a steady rise in gold prices, a huge bourse floor and a very successful official auction by Stack’s Bowers Galleries.

Stack’s Bowers Galleries’ various sessions spanned six separate catalogs. The more than 9,000 lots offered realized slightly more than $40 million, including nearly $30 million in U.S. coins. When combined with the $31 million Heritage auction held before the convention, the auctions offered more than 16,000 lots that sold for more than $71 million in total.

The Aug. 18 Stack’s Bowers Rarities Night catalog introduction called it “a candidate for one of the most memorable sales of our era.” While that statement may inspire debate, the session — designed to compete with Heritage Auction’s Platinum Night sale — offered a diverse group of coins that was the subject of innovative marketing including video reviews of auction highlights by grading service leaders David Hall and Mark Salzberg.

Floor and telephone bidding was notably quiet during the session — perhaps more so than at other recent major auctions — a further sign that collectors and dealers are increasingly turning to the Internet to make their bids.

The fierce competition between Heritage and Stack’s Bowers to fill their August auctions brought more coins to auction than the total offered at the auctions immediately before and during the 2010 ANA convention. The 2010 total results was $60 million.

Several dealers lamented during the show that they found fewer buying opportunities on the bourse floor because so many of the coins were in the auctions, yet many dealers took advantage of auction opportunities to add coins to their inventories and lot viewing was constantly busy.

The Dick Osburn Collection of Seated Liberty half dollars led Rarities Night, and all but a handful of the 152 half dollars sold. Top lots included an 1855-S Seated Liberty, With Arrows half dollar graded Mint State 67 that realized $115,000 and an 1878-S Seated Liberty half dollar in MS-63 that brought $184,000.

Not all coins at auction are reserved for the super-rich, as dozens of quality half dollars in the Osburn Collection were offered without reserve and sold for less than $2,000 - including the pictured 1877 Seated Liberty half dollar graded MS-63 Prooflike that realized $863.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World.  He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

$31M auction strong start to ANA coin week in Chicago

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the September 5, 2011, Special Edition issue of Coin World

The recent volatility in the stock market had little impact on the Heritage sales held in Chicago, Aug. 11 to 12. That serves as a positive sign for what will likely be an exciting American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money.

While not the “official” ANA auction, it realized a healthy $31.345 million with 5,154 bidders competing for 7,370 lots. For comparison, the U.S. coin section of last year’s Heritage ANA auction in Boston realized just over $34 million with 7,133 lots.

Heritage’s top lot in Chicago was an 1855-S Indian Head gold $3 coin graded Proof 64 Cameo by Numismatic Guaranty Corp., described by Heritage as “arguably the single most important coin in the sale.” It realized a robust $1,322,500. At its last auction offering at Stack’s 69th Anniversary Sale in October 2004, it was graded by Professional Coin Grading Service as Branch Mint Proof 63 and sold for $276,000 — further confirming the current market’s taste for flashy, unique rarities.

The noteworthy 1893-S Morgan dollar graded Mint State 67 that was the subject of the Aug. 22 Coin World market analysis found a new home at $546,250, well above the reserve of $340,000 (or $391,000 with the 15 percent buyer’s fee).

Two other gold highlights included an 1863 Coronet $10 eagle graded Proof 65 Deep Cameo that sold for $299,000 (far more than the $138,000 that a similarly graded example sold for at a January 2008 Heritage auction), and a 1796 Capped Bust, No Stars $2.50 quarter eagle graded MS-61 that sold for $276,000.

Perhaps the wildest coin in the sale was a 1814 Capped Bust half dollar pattern struck in platinum with a lettered edge that realized $138,000. The obverse features 33 backward letters “P” punched into the surfaces, and “Platina” is engraved on the reverse. It is unique of the several known platinum patterns for the date in having the punched letters and engraving. With the post-striking impairments — likely contemporary to the coin’s production — it did not receive a numerical grade from NGC. But, as Heritage noted, “condition is all but irrelevant for this example,” and the eye appeal is “decent considering what the coin is.”

Among the major lots that did not sell was a 1921 Saint-Gaudens $20 double eagle graded PCGS MS-64 and a rare 1792 cent pattern graded Fine 15 (one of approximately 10 known) that did not meet its reserve of $379,500 (with the buyer’s fee).

Especially considering the recent financial uncertainty, the fact that the auction had a 95 percent by lot and 91 percent by value sell-through rate is impressive, showing that collectors are still willing to invest in their collections.

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Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World.  He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Coins impacted when gold skyrockets to record price

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the August 29, 2011, issue of Coin World

Investors went crazy for gold the week starting Aug. 7, building on the last decade of gains to an explosive high of $1,801 an ounce in the futures markets while reaching a New York intra-day high of $1,799.20 an ounce on Aug. 10.

The Aug. 5 downgrade of the United States debt by Standard & Poors Corp. from AAA to AA+ shocked the financial markets, culminating in a 634-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Aug. 8. Amid this uncertainty, investors have turned to gold as a safe haven.

It has been an amazing 12 months for gold. In August 2010 its price was at $1,200 an ounce, moving to $1,300 an ounce in September 2010. Gold started 2011 at the $1,400 an ounce level, reaching $1,500 in late April and then $1,600 in late July.

This increase in demand was partly fueled by optimistic gold forecasts by major banks including JP Morgan, which announced that it expected gold to reach at least $2,500 an ounce by the end of the year, upping its prior estimate of $1,800 an ounce, citing the possibility of another global financial crisis.

Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast on the possibility of a U.S. recession, raising its 12-month target on Aug. 8 from $1,730 to $1,880 an ounce while lowering its outlook for U.S. economic growth in general.

The market for all gold coins rises with the gold tide. Proof American Eagle gold bullion coins are trading on the secondary market at the $1,870 an ounce level as of Aug. 9. Also on Aug. 9, the Mint temporarily suspended the sale of several gold coins including Proof American Eagle 1-ounce gold coins for repricing, moving them up to $1,985 by Aug. 10.

The premiums between grades of generic gold coins have shrunk dramatically in recent weeks. For example, while a “Jewelry” grade Saint-Gaudens $20 double eagle — the lowest commercial grade, reserved for coins that are heavily polished or with other substantial impairments — is $1,830, a Mint State 63 example is just $120 more as of Aug. 9. Last year this gap was more than $300.

What impact this wild gold fluctuation will have on the upcoming American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money is to be determined. While record gold prices bring out a curious public, many coin collectors may be worried at investing in their collections when a dreaded “double dip” recession may be looming.
But how many more examples remain to be discovered is a troubling, lingering question

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World.  He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Gold records promotes optimism for Chicago ANA coin show

By By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the Aug. 22, 2011, issue of Coin World

The American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money in Rosemont, Ill., Aug. 16 to 20, is shaping up to be a monster show, fueled by record gold prices, major auctions that could bring more than $60 million and a packed floor of dealers ready to spend money to rebuild inventories.

On Aug. 3, gold hit $1,675 an ounce during the day’s trading — an all time record high — and silver reached almost $42 an ounce. While silver still has room to go to reach the nearly $50 an ounce where it traded several months ago, remember that at this time last year it was trading for $18.42 an ounce.

ANA Executive Director Larry Shepherd has predicted that the show, pre-show and auctions — along with a record-setting 220,000 square-foot bourse (more than double last year’s show in Boston) — will be a grand event in the ANA’s history.

Dealers are hopeful that collectors from around the world will make the trip to the Chicago suburb of Rosemont, and that the ANA’s marketing will target a public willing to sell their coins and cash in on their gold, perhaps sparked by the mainstream news attention that the Langbord 1933 Saint-Gaudens gold double eagle trial generated.

Others may have gotten their first taste of a major coin show when the Central States Numismatic Society show rolled into Rosemont at the end of April, and are now coming back for more.

The bulk of the auction action will be at Stack’s Bowers Galleries Rarities Night auction on Aug. 18 and at Heritage Auction’s Platinum Night sale on Aug. 12. The auctions offer too many rarities to individually list, but an interesting market test will come when Heritage offers an 1893-S Morgan dollar graded Mint State 67 by Numismatic Guaranty Corp.

In 1988 when offered as part of the Norweb Collection, it brought $357,500, a record for any Morgan dollar at the time. When offered at auction in 2008, it failed to find a new home.

The dollar had significant toning when it crossed the auction block in 1988, but when offered 20 years later, it was white and brilliant. Many preferred the former look to the latter.

However, the 2011 photographs of the coin are more handsome than the 2008 photos, so perhaps it will set a record again? On Aug. 7, Heritage posted the reserve on the piece: $340,000 or $391,000 when the 15 percent buyer's premium is included.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World.  He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve

Specialist areas provide coins with rich stories

By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the Aug. 15, 2011, issue of Coin World

“People don’t just want to buy an object, they want to buy a story.”

Nicolas Chow, Sotheby’s head of Chinese works of art — a category that has exploded in the past three years — wrote this, and I find it wonderfully applicable to the coin market.

Perhaps his words resonate most deeply in specialist areas, with dedicated collector bases that are expanding as the Internet makes information more accessible and better connects people with numismatic objects that may intrigue them enough to open their wallets and set new standards for what a “market price” is.

Token collecting is accessible to most anyone as tokens are generally affordable and available. But, there’s also a high-end to the market.

On June 25 at a Steve Hayden auction featuring Civil War, Hard Times, political and merchant tokens and medals, a rare Loomis Hard Times token from Cleveland, Ohio, realized $13,450 (it had an estimate of $8,000 to $12,000).

According to Hayden, it’s one of just five known and has an ownership history going back to 1916. It was not “fresh to market” — it most recently traded at a Jan. 12, 2009, Stack’s Americana sale where it brought $4,600 and was offered at auction in 1999 and 2008 — but its high price in June was a function of the right venue and the right bidders.

That it was holed and worn wasn’t a detriment to the bidders, who had to ask themselves, “Where will I find another one?”

Pioneer gold has a higher entry point in that even the more common, low grade examples are expensive.

Mormon gold has an especially dedicated collector base. Eleven bidders fought for an 1860 Mormon gold $5 coin at the July 8 Heritage Summer Florida United Numismatists auction.

The coin’s design could be described as charming, as the obverse features a seated lion while the reverse shows an eagle behind a beehive.

It graded About Uncirculated 50 and realized a huge $80,500; where another AU-50 example auctioned several months ago at Heritage brought just $51,175.

However, in another example where grades don’t tell the whole story, a visual comparison of the two coins shows that the more recently offered example is of superior quality, with substantially stronger details. Specialists know quality and will pay for it.

Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World.  He is also a lawyer who writes on legal topics involving fine art and collectibles, and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve