By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the March 14, 2011, issue of Coin World - http://www.coinworld.com
It was a "wow" week for silver as the metal hit a 31-year high, breaking $34 an ounce on Feb. 21 during unofficial trading in New York as the markets were closed for President's Day.
Silver reached $34.33 an ounce during the day on Feb. 21, before closing at $33.91.
The recent price levels mark a 12 percent increase for silver since the start of the year.
The next day silver gave back some of its recent gains, closing at $33.06 on Feb. 22 in New York, after reaching a high of $33.48.
Silver's topping $30 an ounce renders useless many books that provide silver values for coins, because they stop at $25 to $30 an ounce.
When $1,000 face value 90 percent silver coin bags are trading at about $23,500, melt value alone means that 90 percent silver coins are worth 23.5 times face value. Even 40 percent silver coins (silver-copper clad) are now worth nearly 10 times face value.
As silver moved up so did the price of crude oil, with futures for March delivery closing at $93.57 a barrel on Feb. 22 – oil's highest price since October 2008 – as continued revolt in
Libya, the world's 12th largest oil exporter, rocked the energy markets.
Oil futures rose as high as $94.49 on Feb. 22, before falling back after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said that "there is absolutely no shortage of supply."
Gold is also approaching record highs again, peaking at $1,407.60 an ounce on Feb. 22.
Gold hit an all-time-high price of $1,434.10 an ounce in December 2010.
With the current high prices, the silver/gold ratio has fallen to 41:5, the lowest level since February 1998. This means that it takes around 42 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold.
Silver has many industrial uses in addition to its reputation as a safe-haven and hedge against inflation.
Of course, coin prices are moving up with the price of silver. Generic certified 1878 to 1904 Mint State Morgan dollars are one of the main beneficiaries, with MS-63 Morgan dollars jumping from $45 last week to $50 this week and MS-64 examples moving from $65 to $70.
Even cull Morgan dollars are trading at $26. "Cull" is a term used to describe coins that are heavily worn or have severe problems (excluding holes).
***
Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve
Monday, February 28, 2011
Monday, February 21, 2011
One size fits all pricing approach doesn’t always work with Morgan dollars
By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the March 7, 2011, Special Edition of Coin World
The Morgan dollar is widely traded at all levels, from the top-grade rarities that sell in the high-six figures for investment portfolios to the low-grade polished coins that trade in bulk as collectible alternatives to silver bullion.
The top end of the Morgan dollar market is healthy, with expensive coins in the $5,000 to $250,000 level finding buyers when appearing at auction and bidders paying extra when a top-quality coin meets their requirements.
For example, at the Jan. 5 Heritage Florida United Numismatists auction, an 1893-S Morgan dollar graded About Uncirculated 58 sold for $80,500. Between 2008 and 2009, four AU-58 examples appeared at auction, with prices realized ranging from $21,850 to $46,000.
In contrast, an MS-64 example sold at the Jan. 5 Heritage auction for $218,500, while at the 2009 FUN Heritage auction, two 1893-S Morgan dollars sold for $299,000 — one was graded MS-64 by Professional Coin Grading Service, another Mint State 65 by Numismatic Guaranty Corp.
It can't be stressed enough: When dealing with five-figure plus coins, a one size fits all approach to pricing does not work as the quality of a coin within a given grade matters more than ever in today's market.
Yet, for the collector on a budget, a PCGS Genuine 1893-S Morgan dollar sold at Heritage's Feb. 4 auction for $1,265. While it had the .94 suffix, indicating Altered Surfaces, from the picture it looked decent enough to not cause embarrassment if added to one's collection. (See image)
Beautiful rainbow toned Morgan dollars continue to see astonishing prices, such as the 1883 Morgan dollar graded MS-65 that sold for $1,725 at Heritage's Jan. 6 auction, more than 10 times what a brilliant example in the same grade would bring.
One area that has shown remarkable movement in the last year has been certified Mint State generic coins — "generic" indicating a coin that does not trade for a premium because of its date.
As of Jan. 26, examples certified by PCGS and NGC are trading wholesale for $45 in MS-63, $65 in MS-64, $138 in MS-65, $230 in MS-66 and $565 in MS-67, provided that they are untoned, or nearly so. For comparison, last year at this time the wholesale pricing was: MS-63, $35; MS-64, $44; MS-65, $112; MS-66, $210; and MS-67 $630.
While MS-64 examples have increased nearly 50 percent in the last year, MS-67 examples have declined 10 percent. Of course, a broader range of collectors — and would-be collectors that marketers can target — can afford MS-64 coins, and marketers know this.
For many collectors, an MS-67 Morgan dollar is a coin easily found that can wait for better economic times.
Circulated Morgan dollars are also showing a healthy market, with dealers paying $30 for "sliders" — choice About Uncirculated coins that can pass as Uncirculated to untrained eyes — and $34 for solid Mint State coins. For comparison, this is the same price that certified MS-61 and MS-62 coins are trading for in wholesale markets.
***
Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve
First published in the March 7, 2011, Special Edition of Coin World
The Morgan dollar is widely traded at all levels, from the top-grade rarities that sell in the high-six figures for investment portfolios to the low-grade polished coins that trade in bulk as collectible alternatives to silver bullion.
The top end of the Morgan dollar market is healthy, with expensive coins in the $5,000 to $250,000 level finding buyers when appearing at auction and bidders paying extra when a top-quality coin meets their requirements.
For example, at the Jan. 5 Heritage Florida United Numismatists auction, an 1893-S Morgan dollar graded About Uncirculated 58 sold for $80,500. Between 2008 and 2009, four AU-58 examples appeared at auction, with prices realized ranging from $21,850 to $46,000.
In contrast, an MS-64 example sold at the Jan. 5 Heritage auction for $218,500, while at the 2009 FUN Heritage auction, two 1893-S Morgan dollars sold for $299,000 — one was graded MS-64 by Professional Coin Grading Service, another Mint State 65 by Numismatic Guaranty Corp.
It can't be stressed enough: When dealing with five-figure plus coins, a one size fits all approach to pricing does not work as the quality of a coin within a given grade matters more than ever in today's market.
Yet, for the collector on a budget, a PCGS Genuine 1893-S Morgan dollar sold at Heritage's Feb. 4 auction for $1,265. While it had the .94 suffix, indicating Altered Surfaces, from the picture it looked decent enough to not cause embarrassment if added to one's collection. (See image)
Beautiful rainbow toned Morgan dollars continue to see astonishing prices, such as the 1883 Morgan dollar graded MS-65 that sold for $1,725 at Heritage's Jan. 6 auction, more than 10 times what a brilliant example in the same grade would bring.
One area that has shown remarkable movement in the last year has been certified Mint State generic coins — "generic" indicating a coin that does not trade for a premium because of its date.
As of Jan. 26, examples certified by PCGS and NGC are trading wholesale for $45 in MS-63, $65 in MS-64, $138 in MS-65, $230 in MS-66 and $565 in MS-67, provided that they are untoned, or nearly so. For comparison, last year at this time the wholesale pricing was: MS-63, $35; MS-64, $44; MS-65, $112; MS-66, $210; and MS-67 $630.
While MS-64 examples have increased nearly 50 percent in the last year, MS-67 examples have declined 10 percent. Of course, a broader range of collectors — and would-be collectors that marketers can target — can afford MS-64 coins, and marketers know this.
For many collectors, an MS-67 Morgan dollar is a coin easily found that can wait for better economic times.
Circulated Morgan dollars are also showing a healthy market, with dealers paying $30 for "sliders" — choice About Uncirculated coins that can pass as Uncirculated to untrained eyes — and $34 for solid Mint State coins. For comparison, this is the same price that certified MS-61 and MS-62 coins are trading for in wholesale markets.
***
Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve
Monday, February 14, 2011
Gold, silver bullion on rise, but ATB 5-oz silver coins settle down
By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com
First published in the February 28, 2011 issue of Coin World
On Feb. 8, silver and gold made a big jump as the U.S. dollar showed signs of weakening and the market reacted to China increasing interest rates in an effort to fight inflation.
However, the 2010 America the Beautiful 5-ounce .999 fine silver bullion coins have not benefited from silver’s rise as prices for the coins have declined sharply.
Silver jumped nearly a dollar on Feb. 8, opening at $29.35 an ounce on Feb. 8 and advancing to $30.40 during the day on the New York markets.
Gold also experienced large gains, leaping to $1,369.30 an ounce after opening at $1,349.50.
After opening the year on Jan. 4 at $1,405.50 an ounce in London, gold gradually sunk to a low of $1,316 on Jan. 28.
Silver has been even more volatile, starting the year at $30.67, before dropping to $29.21 the next day and finding a low of $26.68 on Jan. 28.
Even copper is finding itself at record levels, trading at $4.64 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange on Feb. 7. Investors worried that the copper supply may be constricted as Chile — a large copper producer — could face power outages resulting from a drought.
For the 2010 America the Beautiful 5-ounce .999 fine silver bullion coins, what a difference a week makes!
As the number of coins in the marketplace increases, the prices are falling fast for all but the top-quality certified Mint State 69 coins, as dealers seem to be quickly taking profits, liquidating their positions and moving on to put their money into other things.
On Jan. 1, uncertified Uncirculated five-coin sets brought as much as $2,700. A month later, on Feb. 1, uncertified five-coin sets were trading wholesale for $1,900 to $2,000 and a day later they were they were down to the $1,700 to $1,800. By Feb. 8 the prices for the five-coin sets had fallen to $1,400 to $1,550 and on eBay, certified Professional Coin Grading Service "Choice BU" sets were selling for a "Buy it Now" price of $1,650.
Collectors who waited for the initial sizzle to fizzle are now being rewarded with significantly more affordable silver bullion coins.
One wonders how the prices for 2010 issues will hold up several years from now. Will collector demand continue as the series expands with five new coins each year?
***
Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve
First published in the February 28, 2011 issue of Coin World
On Feb. 8, silver and gold made a big jump as the U.S. dollar showed signs of weakening and the market reacted to China increasing interest rates in an effort to fight inflation.
However, the 2010 America the Beautiful 5-ounce .999 fine silver bullion coins have not benefited from silver’s rise as prices for the coins have declined sharply.
Silver jumped nearly a dollar on Feb. 8, opening at $29.35 an ounce on Feb. 8 and advancing to $30.40 during the day on the New York markets.
Gold also experienced large gains, leaping to $1,369.30 an ounce after opening at $1,349.50.
After opening the year on Jan. 4 at $1,405.50 an ounce in London, gold gradually sunk to a low of $1,316 on Jan. 28.
Silver has been even more volatile, starting the year at $30.67, before dropping to $29.21 the next day and finding a low of $26.68 on Jan. 28.
Even copper is finding itself at record levels, trading at $4.64 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange on Feb. 7. Investors worried that the copper supply may be constricted as Chile — a large copper producer — could face power outages resulting from a drought.
For the 2010 America the Beautiful 5-ounce .999 fine silver bullion coins, what a difference a week makes!
As the number of coins in the marketplace increases, the prices are falling fast for all but the top-quality certified Mint State 69 coins, as dealers seem to be quickly taking profits, liquidating their positions and moving on to put their money into other things.
On Jan. 1, uncertified Uncirculated five-coin sets brought as much as $2,700. A month later, on Feb. 1, uncertified five-coin sets were trading wholesale for $1,900 to $2,000 and a day later they were they were down to the $1,700 to $1,800. By Feb. 8 the prices for the five-coin sets had fallen to $1,400 to $1,550 and on eBay, certified Professional Coin Grading Service "Choice BU" sets were selling for a "Buy it Now" price of $1,650.
Collectors who waited for the initial sizzle to fizzle are now being rewarded with significantly more affordable silver bullion coins.
One wonders how the prices for 2010 issues will hold up several years from now. Will collector demand continue as the series expands with five new coins each year?
***
Steve Roach is a Dallas, Texas, based rare coin appraiser and fine art advisor who writes the world's most widely read rare coin market analysis each week in the pages of Coin World. He is also a lawyer and helps create estate plans for collections. Visit him online at http://www.steveroachonline.com, join him on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenroach or follow him on twitter @roachdotsteve
Monday, February 7, 2011
ATB 5-ounce silver quarter market still robust
America the Beautiful 5-ounce silver quarter market still robust
By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com/
First published in the Feb. 21, 2011, issue of Coin World.
Collectors are still paying huge premiums for 2010 America the Beautiful 5-ounce .999 fine silver bullion coins and completed transactions on eBay continue to document the market as it progresses.
While the nine authorized purchasers that purchased these coins directly from the U.S. Mint are allowed to sell these coins for a modest profit — the prices on the primary market have been around $950 per set — several authorized purchasers have yet to sell their sets. This gives some collectors hope of still buying a set for less than $1,000.
Since the last Market Analysis about the America the Beautiful 5-ounce coins, published in the Jan. 24 issue of Coin World, examples certified by Professional Coin Grading Service have entered the marketplace at very high levels.
In two separate eBay auctions on Jan. 28 and Jan. 31, sets of all five 2010 issues, PCGS graded Mint State 69 First Strike, sold for $8,599 per set.
While in early January, five-coin Numismatic Guaranty Corp. sets graded MS-69 sold for as much as $6,500, the majority of five-coin MS-69 sets offered in the last week of January sold for around $4,500.
On the wholesale market, NGC five-coin MS-69 sets are trading at the $4,000 level.
A few MS-68 NGC sets have also sold on eBay: one sold for $3,200 on Jan. 29. Another set in NGC “Gem Uncirculated” holders without a numerical grade sold for $3,150.
Looking at several wholesale dealers’ price lists confirms that slabbed MS-68 coins carry a slight premium over raw coins, as well as over those slabbed with non-numerical grades.
A PCGS set with four MS-68 coins and a single MS-67 — for Hot Springs, Ark. — sold on eBay for $2,800 on Jan. 30.
The trend is that for the 2010 issues, the Yosemite and Hot Springs issues are less frequently found in MS-69. This will be confirmed once the grading services make their population reports on these issues available.
Uncertified sets of five America the Beautiful coins are selling on eBay in the $2,300 to $2,570 range, and they are trading wholesale at the $1,900 to $2,000 level.
Individual coins are becoming increasingly unavailable, though this may change as more are released into the marketplace. The prices on individual coins seem especially erratic, as no one is quite sure how to price them.
By Steve Roach - http://www.steveroachonline.com/
First published in the Feb. 21, 2011, issue of Coin World.
While the nine authorized purchasers that purchased these coins directly from the U.S. Mint are allowed to sell these coins for a modest profit — the prices on the primary market have been around $950 per set — several authorized purchasers have yet to sell their sets. This gives some collectors hope of still buying a set for less than $1,000.
Since the last Market Analysis about the America the Beautiful 5-ounce coins, published in the Jan. 24 issue of Coin World, examples certified by Professional Coin Grading Service have entered the marketplace at very high levels.
In two separate eBay auctions on Jan. 28 and Jan. 31, sets of all five 2010 issues, PCGS graded Mint State 69 First Strike, sold for $8,599 per set.
While in early January, five-coin Numismatic Guaranty Corp. sets graded MS-69 sold for as much as $6,500, the majority of five-coin MS-69 sets offered in the last week of January sold for around $4,500.
On the wholesale market, NGC five-coin MS-69 sets are trading at the $4,000 level.
A few MS-68 NGC sets have also sold on eBay: one sold for $3,200 on Jan. 29. Another set in NGC “Gem Uncirculated” holders without a numerical grade sold for $3,150.
Looking at several wholesale dealers’ price lists confirms that slabbed MS-68 coins carry a slight premium over raw coins, as well as over those slabbed with non-numerical grades.
A PCGS set with four MS-68 coins and a single MS-67 — for Hot Springs, Ark. — sold on eBay for $2,800 on Jan. 30.
The trend is that for the 2010 issues, the Yosemite and Hot Springs issues are less frequently found in MS-69. This will be confirmed once the grading services make their population reports on these issues available.
Uncertified sets of five America the Beautiful coins are selling on eBay in the $2,300 to $2,570 range, and they are trading wholesale at the $1,900 to $2,000 level.
Individual coins are becoming increasingly unavailable, though this may change as more are released into the marketplace. The prices on individual coins seem especially erratic, as no one is quite sure how to price them.
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