By Steve Roach
First published in the November 8, 2010, issue of Coin World
Some of the coins that one would expect to rise such as generic Mint State Morgan silver dollars and Coronet and Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagles are showing only minimal gains, although they are trading at high volumes.
On Oct. 14, gold hit a historic high London AM fix price of $1,380.75 an ounce, and during intraday trading that day reached a record $1,388.10.
The same day the U.S. dollar sunk to lows not seen since January upon news that Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke indicated that another round of government monetary stimulus funding may be necessary to revive the U.S. economy.
As silver continues to flirt with $25 per ounce, MS-63 through MS-65 Morgan dollars – the bread and butter of the generic market – are showing some upward movement in price, with several dealers paying more than wholesale "ask" prices for MS-64 and MS-65 dollars, as long as they are "white or white-ish," to fill large orders from retailers.
Retail prices may increase soon in kind, although some collectors will likely elect to sit out the silver coin market for a while, hoping that the price of silver declines and their wanted coins return to more affordable levels.
As an example, when a common silver quarter dollar is trading for almost $5, many collectors are in no rush to buy.
Circulated silver dollars are showing even more action, with several wholesale dealers paying $22 for Extremely Fine pre-1921 Morgan dollars and $29 for uncertified Mint State examples.
As the public continues to sell these coins to dealers in record numbers, a steady supply is created that should keep prices from escalating rapidly.
Prices for generic gold coins continue to lag behind gold’s ascent and most issues show modest if any price increases. Those prices still have not come close to the levels seen at the beginning of the year, despite the fact that gold is now 25 percent more expensive.
An increased supply of these coins is entering the marketplace, keeping prices in check, at least for now.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Monday, October 18, 2010
Gold dominates coin market as records fall
By Steve Roach
First published in the Nov. 1, 2010, issue of Coin World
Gold is currently the engine that is driving the rare coin market.
It seems that Coin World's Market Analysis of late has been alternating between gold one week and everything else the next week. However, an emphasis on gold is appropriate as the market has never seen gold hit the levels that it is currently hitting.
On Oct. 11, the price of gold hit a record London PM fix of $1,351 an ounce and at one point during the day hovered at $1,360.
On Oct. 12, the banking investment firm Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecasts to $1,400, $1,525 and $1,650 for three-, six- and 12-month horizons, citing falling interest rates and a slowdown of the U.S. economic recovery.
Other investment firms are similarly bullish on the prospects of gold to continue rising in value.
Gold is up nearly 25 percent in 2010, and if trends continue, gold will be heading for its tenth consecutive annual gain.
The U.S. Mint's release of Proof 2010-W American Eagle gold coins in early October has taken pressure off the secondary market for earlier 1-ounce issues.
At an issue price of $1,585, the 2010 1-ounce coins are trading at the same level as older issues in the wholesale markets, where several dealers are paying up to $1,600 an ounce for coins available for immediate shipment to fill orders from wholesalers who still have customers demanding these coins for inclusion in Individual Retirement Accounts.
As of Oct. 12, the Mint's Web site posts an expected delivery date of Oct. 27 for new orders of Proof 2010-W gold American Eagles.
The recent announcement that the Mint will produce Proof 2010-W American Eagle silver coins has also cooled off the market for earlier coins tremendously.
Immediately after the news about the Proof 2010-W silver coins broke, market makers reduced their buy prices for Proof silver American Eagles from $55 to $45, in line with the Mint's $45.95 price of the Proof 2010-W coins when they go on sale Nov. 19 at noon with a household limit of 100.
The Mint has not given any indication of how many Proof 2010-W American Eagles silver coins may be produced.
First published in the Nov. 1, 2010, issue of Coin World
Gold is currently the engine that is driving the rare coin market.
It seems that Coin World's Market Analysis of late has been alternating between gold one week and everything else the next week. However, an emphasis on gold is appropriate as the market has never seen gold hit the levels that it is currently hitting.
On Oct. 11, the price of gold hit a record London PM fix of $1,351 an ounce and at one point during the day hovered at $1,360.
On Oct. 12, the banking investment firm Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecasts to $1,400, $1,525 and $1,650 for three-, six- and 12-month horizons, citing falling interest rates and a slowdown of the U.S. economic recovery.
Other investment firms are similarly bullish on the prospects of gold to continue rising in value.
Gold is up nearly 25 percent in 2010, and if trends continue, gold will be heading for its tenth consecutive annual gain.
The U.S. Mint's release of Proof 2010-W American Eagle gold coins in early October has taken pressure off the secondary market for earlier 1-ounce issues.
At an issue price of $1,585, the 2010 1-ounce coins are trading at the same level as older issues in the wholesale markets, where several dealers are paying up to $1,600 an ounce for coins available for immediate shipment to fill orders from wholesalers who still have customers demanding these coins for inclusion in Individual Retirement Accounts.
As of Oct. 12, the Mint's Web site posts an expected delivery date of Oct. 27 for new orders of Proof 2010-W gold American Eagles.
The recent announcement that the Mint will produce Proof 2010-W American Eagle silver coins has also cooled off the market for earlier coins tremendously.
Immediately after the news about the Proof 2010-W silver coins broke, market makers reduced their buy prices for Proof silver American Eagles from $55 to $45, in line with the Mint's $45.95 price of the Proof 2010-W coins when they go on sale Nov. 19 at noon with a household limit of 100.
The Mint has not given any indication of how many Proof 2010-W American Eagles silver coins may be produced.
Monday, October 11, 2010
Fast profits not guaranteed at auction
By Steve Roach
First published in the October 25, 2010, issue of Coin World
While many dealers continue to grumble about weak bourse action at the recently finished back-to-back Long Beach, Calif., and Philadelphia coin shows, in which a review of the dealer bourse lists seem to show a clear bifurcation between West and East coast dealers, the market continues to be robust in the auction sector.
.jpg)
In the official Heritage Auction Galleries Long Beach sale, the top lot was an Extremely Fine 45+ 1856-O Coronet gold $20 double eagle that surfaced in Ohio and was the cover story of the July 26 Coin World. It brought $345,000.
The Heritage auction realized $13.4 million total.
The next two top lots were large gold ingots; further evidence for the market’s insatiable appetite for gold.
Heritage has had a curious auction history in the last two years with 1856-O double eagles, with five auction appearances in the past two years. The recent auction price seems to break what has been a downward trajectory for the issue in auction results.
In January 2009, an EF-45 example sold for $276,000 and the same coin sold again in July 2009, for $253,000. In October 2008, an AU-58 example sold for $576,150 and that same example brought $460,000 in July 2009.
Perhaps too many auction appearances skewed bidders’ sense of its rarity. Heritage estimates that fewer than 20 are available for collectors and the most recently offered example, held by a family in Ohio for nearly 100 years, was as "fresh-to-market" as they get.
For top rarities, the perception of rarity can be almost as important as actual rarity to justify six- and seven-figure prices.
The next week, Stack’s Philadelphia Americana sale realized a very healthy $9,676,867.
One of the highlights, a Proof 65 Cameo 1887 Coronet gold $5 half eagle, brought $97,750, a bit less than it realized at auction in January 2007 where it brought $103,500 when offered as part of the Robert J. Loewinger Collection (pictured above, left).
Results like this serve as a cautionary tale that even at the top-end of the market with coins of superlative quality and absolute rarity, quick profits are not a guarantee
First published in the October 25, 2010, issue of Coin World
While many dealers continue to grumble about weak bourse action at the recently finished back-to-back Long Beach, Calif., and Philadelphia coin shows, in which a review of the dealer bourse lists seem to show a clear bifurcation between West and East coast dealers, the market continues to be robust in the auction sector.
.jpg)
The Heritage auction realized $13.4 million total.
The next two top lots were large gold ingots; further evidence for the market’s insatiable appetite for gold.
Heritage has had a curious auction history in the last two years with 1856-O double eagles, with five auction appearances in the past two years. The recent auction price seems to break what has been a downward trajectory for the issue in auction results.
In January 2009, an EF-45 example sold for $276,000 and the same coin sold again in July 2009, for $253,000. In October 2008, an AU-58 example sold for $576,150 and that same example brought $460,000 in July 2009.
Perhaps too many auction appearances skewed bidders’ sense of its rarity. Heritage estimates that fewer than 20 are available for collectors and the most recently offered example, held by a family in Ohio for nearly 100 years, was as "fresh-to-market" as they get.
For top rarities, the perception of rarity can be almost as important as actual rarity to justify six- and seven-figure prices.
The next week, Stack’s Philadelphia Americana sale realized a very healthy $9,676,867.
One of the highlights, a Proof 65 Cameo 1887 Coronet gold $5 half eagle, brought $97,750, a bit less than it realized at auction in January 2007 where it brought $103,500 when offered as part of the Robert J. Loewinger Collection (pictured above, left).
Results like this serve as a cautionary tale that even at the top-end of the market with coins of superlative quality and absolute rarity, quick profits are not a guarantee
Monday, October 4, 2010
Gold's astounding ride
By Steve Roach
First published in the Oct. 18, 2010, issue of Coin World
Gold continues to astound as it broke the $1,300 ounce level for the first time on Sept. 28, closing in New York at $1,306.60 an ounce.
.jpg)
The next day, gold hit a high of $1,313.20 before closing at $1,308.50.
In a nice contrast to the previous week's House Subcommittee hearings focused on fighting fraud in the sale of gold coins, the Sept. 29 Wall Street Journal featured a front-page story that was overwhelmingly positive about gold's potential to top $1,500 next year.
It focused on investors' growing desire to hold actual gold in the form of coins and bars.
Reports by numerous analysts and banks seem to share a bullish view for gold, evidenced by a Sept. 28 report by Deutsche Bank that stated that $1,600 an ounce gold would not be surprising for 2012 and that gold would not be in a "bubble" until hitting $2,000.
The recent bull run-up in gold prices has been attributed to many things: continued uncertainty in the real estate market; concern about the value of currencies, especially China's; low consumer confidence in the United States; and general concern about large central banks' ability to control the money supply adequately.
But to collectors, one thing is clear: gold coins are much more expensive than they were in 2000, in large part due to the price of gold rising 353 percent over that time.
The increased threat of intrusive federal regulations in the coin industry, such as the recently introduced Coin and Precious Metal Disclosure Act (H.R. 6149) have done little to dampen the public's appetite for gold coins.
But dealers have responded vocally to fight multiple pieces of legislation that could affect the coin market, forming political action committees aimed at fostering better communication between the coin community and legislators.
Many dealers reported that gold was the lone bright spot in the market at the recently completed Long Beach Coin, Stamp & Collectables Expo, where several market-makers elected to stay home, instead budgeting to attend the Whitman Coin and Collectibles Philadelphia Expo, another major show, scheduled for the following weekend.
Pictured is an 1856-O Coronet $20 double eagle graded Extremely Fine 45 + by Numismatic Guaranty Corp. that sold for $345,000 at the Heritage Auction Galleries Long Beach sale on Sept. 23. The story of the coin and its discovery was the subject of a July 26 front page story in Coin World titled "1856-O gold double eagle surfaces in Ohio."
First published in the Oct. 18, 2010, issue of Coin World
Gold continues to astound as it broke the $1,300 ounce level for the first time on Sept. 28, closing in New York at $1,306.60 an ounce.
.jpg)
The next day, gold hit a high of $1,313.20 before closing at $1,308.50.
In a nice contrast to the previous week's House Subcommittee hearings focused on fighting fraud in the sale of gold coins, the Sept. 29 Wall Street Journal featured a front-page story that was overwhelmingly positive about gold's potential to top $1,500 next year.
It focused on investors' growing desire to hold actual gold in the form of coins and bars.
Reports by numerous analysts and banks seem to share a bullish view for gold, evidenced by a Sept. 28 report by Deutsche Bank that stated that $1,600 an ounce gold would not be surprising for 2012 and that gold would not be in a "bubble" until hitting $2,000.
The recent bull run-up in gold prices has been attributed to many things: continued uncertainty in the real estate market; concern about the value of currencies, especially China's; low consumer confidence in the United States; and general concern about large central banks' ability to control the money supply adequately.
But to collectors, one thing is clear: gold coins are much more expensive than they were in 2000, in large part due to the price of gold rising 353 percent over that time.
The increased threat of intrusive federal regulations in the coin industry, such as the recently introduced Coin and Precious Metal Disclosure Act (H.R. 6149) have done little to dampen the public's appetite for gold coins.
But dealers have responded vocally to fight multiple pieces of legislation that could affect the coin market, forming political action committees aimed at fostering better communication between the coin community and legislators.
Many dealers reported that gold was the lone bright spot in the market at the recently completed Long Beach Coin, Stamp & Collectables Expo, where several market-makers elected to stay home, instead budgeting to attend the Whitman Coin and Collectibles Philadelphia Expo, another major show, scheduled for the following weekend.
Pictured is an 1856-O Coronet $20 double eagle graded Extremely Fine 45 + by Numismatic Guaranty Corp. that sold for $345,000 at the Heritage Auction Galleries Long Beach sale on Sept. 23. The story of the coin and its discovery was the subject of a July 26 front page story in Coin World titled "1856-O gold double eagle surfaces in Ohio."
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
