ANA auction tests high end Barber market

By Steve Roach
First published in the Sept. 13, 2010 issue of Coin World

The advanced markets for Barber dimes, quarter dollars and half dollars have usually been the realm of specialists, as many collectors stop after they get what they need for a type set.

That quality examples of Barber half dollars are more expensive than Barber quarter dollars or dimes serves as a factor to limit broad interest in the set; although the absence of wallet-busting rarities like the 1901-S Barber quarter dollar makes Barber half dollars a worthy challenge.

Steven Duckor, who made headlines in 2009 when he sold his spectacular Barber quarter dollar set at auction, consigned his collection of Barber half dollars to Heritage Auctions' 2010 American Numismatic Association auction.

Some market observers were skeptical as to how well his half dollar collection would do, as another major set put together by Dale Friend was recently auctioned in January 2009.

With both consignors presumably out of the market, some wondered how deep the bidding would be with 74 pricey examples hitting the market all at once.

Duckor purchased at least three of the coins offered from the 2009 Friend auction, including an 1894-O Barber half dollar graded MS-67, an 1897-S half dollar in MS-67 and a 1907-D half dollar graded MS-67+.

All three sold for less than their 2009 purchase price, with the 1907-D half dollar realizing $29,900 in 2010; a stark contrast to the $53,187.50 it realized in 2009 (and that was without the new PCGS Secure Plus designation on the slab).

Still, the prices were generally strong.

A 1901-S Barber half dollar graded MS-67+ brought $86,250 in the 2010 auction, a substantial advance from another MS-67 example that sold at an August 2009 Heritage auction for $54,625.

A 1904-S Barber half dollar graded MS-67 realized an exceptional $138,000 at the August 2010 auction.

Perhaps an eager type collector at the August 2010 auction purchased the 1905 MS-68+ Barber half dollar, the single finest certified Barber half dollar and universally considered amazing. It is pictured above, left. Its price of $132,250 seems to confirm the quality, especially in light of the other MS-68 example from Duckor's collection that realized "just" $63,250.

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A lifelong coin aficionado, Steve has worked with ANACS (Dublin, OH), Christie's (New York, NY), Heritage Rare Coin Galleries and Heritage Auctions (Dallas, TX) and is associate editor for Coin World, the world's largest coin publication. He is also an art appraiser and dealer, and is an accredited member of the International Society of Appraisers. Visit him online at www.steveroachonline.com or www.texasartgroup.com.

$60 million in one week: ANA auctions exciting!

By Steve Roach
First published in the September 6, 2010 issue of Coin World

If the bourse activity at the just-finished 2010 American Numismatic Association World's Fair of Money in Boston was perceived as moderate-to-good, the associated auctions both before and during the show could be characterized as good-to-great.

In total the auctions realized more than $60 million.

The week started off with Bowers and Merena Auctions' Boston Rarities Sale on Aug. 7 where the 1,750 lots offered realized a very healthy $9.3 million.

The star lot, a 1794 Flowing Hair dollar certified Mint State 64 by Numismatic Guaranty Corp., realized $1,207,500 (pictured left, image courtesy of Bowers and Merena Auctions); a strong price but within expectations for the fourth finest known example of this key issue, the finest of which just sold in a private transaction for a reported $7.85 million.

The next day, Stack's auction of the Johnson-Blue Collection and other properties realized more than $4 million.

Several days later, the Heritage Auctions' juggernaut of U.S. coin, world coin and currency auctions began with the Platinum Night session. The total for the Heritage auctions – $46 million – represented a new record total for a Heritage ANA event and, one hopes, a windfall for the ANA which at least in the past has received a percentage of the total "official" ANA auction proceeds.

While the perceived stars – including some exceptional early Massachusetts silver coins, several gold patterns and an MS-67 1931 Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagle – soared, the Heritage auctions offered a few surprises.

Perhaps the biggest surprise came when a 1944 Walking Liberty half dollar graded MS-68 by Professional Coin Grading Service realized an astounding $109,250. It is not a rare coin as more than 28 million were struck and the average grade among the more than 20,000 certified examples is MS-63.8, meaning that many exceptional coins are available.

Eleven bidders competed for the trophy – the single finest Walking Liberty half dollar certified at PCGS – and the winning bidder will now have a spectacular coin for his or her registry set.

For comparison, the lone NGC MS-68 example realized $6,900 at Heritage's March 2010 Fort Worth ANA auction.

Prices for Proof American Eagle Gold coins tumble

By Steve Roach
First published in the Aug. 30, 2010, issue of Coin World

Proof American Eagle gold coins have provided some sparks in the marketplace this past year, but the fast fall in prices over the past several weeks serves as a reminder that what goes up usually comes down.

Some major buyers have stopped buying these and prices have fallen sharply.

For some smaller dealers who were stockpiling the coins in anticipation of continued demand, the change in the market means they have lost substantial money, for now, as the coins are now worth substantially less than what the dealers paid for them.

During July, several large dealers were paying between $1,950 and $2,000 per ounce for Proof American Eagle gold coins in original Mint packaging – the inner and outer boxes, original capsules and original certificate of authenticity with the same year as the coins.

For example, on July 14 a major wholesaler was paying $2,025 per ounce; the dealer's price gradually declined to $1,900 July 26. Then on July 27 the dealer's buy price went down to $1,850. On July 29 in the morning the dealer's buy price was $1,830 and by the afternoon it went to $1,800. On Aug. 3, the price hit $1,750 and then, with orders filled, that dealer stopped buying.

Incidentally, the price of gold on July 26 was $1,189 per ounce and the price on Aug. 3 was $1,184, meaning that the drop in demand was not directly related to the bullion market.

On Aug. 6, when gold increased to $1,205 per ounce, one dealer offered $1,650 per ounce for coins with original packaging, and for coins without the packaging, the price dropped sharply to $1,400 per ounce.

If those who are closest to the market are not buying at the high levels that have characterized these Proof issues for the last year, are they doing this because they know something that we at Coin World don't know?

On Aug. 6, the U.S. Mint told Coin World that no decision has been made as to whether Proof 2010-W American Eagle 1-ounce gold coins would be struck.

If the U.S. Mint releases Proof American Eagle gold bullion coins in 2010, supplies will increase and less pressure will be placed on the current supply, likely ending the bull market for these issues.

PCGS expands Plus designation

By Steve Roach
First published in the August 23, 2010 issue of Coin World

The month of July closed with two bold announcements.

The first was that the Professional Numismatists Guild has adopted a definition of "coin doctoring" and the second was that Professional Coin Grading Service has expanded its Plus designation to include a broader group of submission tiers.  The image is a 1910 Barber half dollar graded Mint State 66+ by PCGS, in the service's Secure Plus holder.  That coin is to be offered at auction by Heritage Auction Galleries on August 11.

The first announcement will likely change little in the day-to-day lives of dealers and collectors, but the second will have broad implications in the marketplace.

The PCGS announcement alleviates a problem that the collector and dealer community had seen with the PCGS Plus grade.

Before the change, coins submitted to PCGS for grading were only evaluated for a Plus grade if they were submitted under the Secure Plus grading tier.

This created the perception in coin buyers' minds that coins housed in a PCGS Secure Plus slab without a Plus grade were inferior.

In fact, some dealers reported that non-Plus coins in PCGS Secure Plus holders were becoming challenging to sell, while the market's appetite for Plus coins seems to be growing as the coin buyers become more comfortable with the concept.

In contrast, Numismatic Guaranty Corp. has evaluated all submitted coins for the "+" designation under most tiers since adopting the "+" designation.

As NGC explains, "a coin graded NGC MS 64 + is close to the quality of a coin graded NGC 65. The + is synonymous with the term 'PQ' or 'Premium Quality.' "

The announcements serve as reminders to collectors that all coins of a given grade are not equal in terms of quality or eye appeal.

The PNG press release also is a reminder that the mechanics of the rare coin marketplace still allow for it to be profitable for "coin doctors" to destroy the originality of coins in an effort to increase their numerical grade.

One hopes that PNG dealers will conform to the requirement that they must refrain from knowingly dealing in doctored coins without fully disclosing the status to their customers.

But what – if any – impact defining "coin doctoring" will have on the market remains to be seen.

Information adds value

By Steve Roach

First published in the Aug. 16, 2010, issue of Coin World

Information is a key component in determining an object's value and sometimes a nugget of a object's history can substantially increase its price.

For example, one could argue that research, suggesting that a 1794 Flowing Hair dollar graded Specimen 66 by Professional Coin Grading Service was the first silver dollar ever struck by the U.S. Mint, strongly boosted the coin's importance to justify the reported $7,850,000 that it traded for in a private treaty sale.

In other words, the research elevated the coin from being a noteworthy early U.S. coin of great interest to specialists to a landmark rarity with broader appeal.

Heritage Auction Galleries plans to offer at its Boston American Numismatic Association auction in August a 1907 Indian Head gold $10 eagle – the only known Plain Edge, Wire Rim example – that is now being advertised by Heritage as "likely" the only example of his coinage that sculptor Augustus Saint-Gaudens saw before his death from cancer on Aug. 3, 1907.

Two plain edge coins were struck at the Philadelphia Mint as pattern pieces: one went to Treasury Secretary George B. Cortelyou who forwarded it to President Theodore Roosevelt, while another went to Saint-Gaudens.

Much like the 1794 "first dollar," where the research is based on plausible conclusions rather than absolute documentary evidence, Heritage acknowledges that "it is impossible to say with certainty whether it was sent to Roosevelt or Saint-Gaudens, but it is a coin of tremendous importance regardless of the answer."

Such discoveries are not uncommon in other fields such as paintings.

In 2006, a small Detroit auction house, Dumouchelles, sold a canvas depicting St. Catherine, attributed as anonymous 18th century with an estimate of $4,000 to $6,000.

Dealers around the world found it online and bid it up to $1.9 million. It is currently on the market for a price in excess of $3 million, restored and firmly attributed to 17th century French master Simon Vouet.  It is pictured in its restored state.

Information about an object's history is of interest to both the scholar and the marketplace, and researchers and dealers work together to add value.