Buzz loud before Boston ANA

By Steve Roach
First published in Aug. 9, 2010, Coin World

The buzz before the American Numismatic Association World's Fair of Money in Boston, Aug. 10 to 14, is fantastic, and enough rarities are being offered in the related auctions to get any collector's blood pumping.

In more than a week of auctions, more than 10,000 lots will be offered, testing the depth of the current market and the reach of collectors and investors to go after top rarities. Three major auctions highlight the week.

At the Bowers and Merena Rarities auction, scheduled before the ANA convention, top lots include a bright 1794 Flowing Hair dollar, graded Mint State 64, consigned by the Cardinal Collection Educational Foundation, which recently made news for purchasing a Professional Coin Grading Service Specimen 66 example of the same coin in a private transaction for a reported $7,850,000. The foundation also consigned several other key 1794 coins to the sale.

Other top lots offered by Bowers and Merena in its auction include an 1870-S Seated Liberty dollar in Extremely Fine 40, and some fantastic patterns including two wildly impressive gilt 1877 $50 half unions.

Stack's also is hosting a pre-ANA auction that includes some great pattern coins, at least three rare Matte Proof Saint-Gaudens double eagles and a 1794 Flowing Hair dollar in Fine.

Heritage Auction Galleries is hosting the official auction of ANA and is offering the Dwight Manley Collection of early Massachusetts silver – described by Heritage as a "Registry masterpiece" – which includes an About Uncirculated New England shilling (pictured right) and magnificent examples of the 1652 Pine Tree, Oak Tree and Willow Tree shillings.

A choice group of Gobrecht dollars and an amazing set of Barber half dollars will be offered in the Heritage auction and there are plenty of rare key-date Saint-Gaudens double eagles to satisfy the market's appetite, and continuing the trend, a Very Fine 25 1794 Flowing Hair dollar.

The auctions will offer thousands of other lots in nearly all sectors of the market, high to low, rewarding collectors who have been saving their collecting budgets for this once-a-year smorgasbord.

Summer FUN Auction Results

By Steve Roach
First published in the Aug. 2, 2010 issue of Coin World

The continued drought of major rarities in the auction marketplace was evident at the Florida United Numismatists summer show, held July 8 to 10 in Orlando.

Yet, despite absence of six-figure coins, the sale realized a healthy $7.39 million, although that number is bound to grow as Heritage counts after-auction sales in the total amount realized for an auction.

Eight bidders competed for a 1867 Shield 5-cent coin, graded Proof 65 Cameo by Numismatic Guaranty Corp. It sold for a healthy $57,500, although a similarly graded example crossed the auction block in January 2009 for $63,250.

Among the top lots were the usual pieces: rare early gold coins, 1907 Saint-Gaudens, High Relief double eagles and tough Proof gold.

But interesting collector coins did very well, too.

An About Uncirculated 53 1944-D Lincoln cent struck on a zinc-coated steel planchet realized $37,375, bringing more than the $32,200 realized when the same coin was last sold at the January 2010 FUN show auction.

Interestingly, the same consignor of the cent sold at the summer FUN show also sold an AU-55 example at a June Heritage auction for $60,375.

Some powerful coins went without buyers, including a 1907 Saint-Gaudens, High Relief double eagle in Mint State 67+, a 1930-S double eagle in MS-63 and a rare 1882 Coronet double eagle in AU-53. High consignor expectations that resulted in unmet reserves is the likely culprit, although post-auction buying may find new owners for some pieces.

A few modern issues did great, including a 2000-W Library of Congress ringed-bimetallic $10 coin graded NGC MS-67 that brought $4,887.50.

A Lincoln cent variety also had a big moment.

The finest Professional Coin Grading Service certified 1971 Lincoln, Double Die Obverse 1 cent, MS-66 red, brought $10,350. The price makes one wonder if this variety is destined for broader recognition.

It currently is left out of many major guide books, but its strong doubling and general availability – a PCGS MS-64 red example sold at auction in April 2010 for $862.50 – are both points in favor of moving it to the collecting mainstream.

Sleepy summertime for coin market?

By Steve Roach

First published in the July 26, 2010, issue of Coin World

July is traditionally a sleepy month for the coin market, as dealers enjoy a week or two of summer vacation before the juggernaut that is the American Numismatic Association summer convention, set this year Aug. 10 to 14 in Boston.  The picture below is a summertime scene by the French Impressionist painter Gustav Caillebotte.

When counting the pre-show and associated auctions, the ANA World's Fair of Money provides more than a week of intense activity for the market.

The introduction of the summer Florida United Numismatists show – this year July 8 to 11 in Orlando – has cut into the traditional July lull, and the raging bullion market has further cut into dealers' time for rest and recreation.

After the FUN summer show, there are no major shows until the ANA convention, but for a Professional Coin Grading Service "trade and grade" in Las Vegas, which is a pre-pre-ANA show stop for many dealers to acquire inventory to take with them to the ANA convention.

As the collectible coin market remains steady but hardly robust, demand for gold provides welcome profits for many coin shops that have seen demand for fine jewelry and collectibles – often sold with coins – decline greatly in the past year.

This year, July seems to be especially active, as dealers keep shops open to deal with public demand for gold, with gold's fluctuation keeping things interesting.

For example, just a week after a June 28 high of $1,262, gold was trading in the $1,180 range on July 6, as both domestic and global stock markets rallied and gold became less attractive to investors.

Generally, generic gold coins still haven't generated the heat that American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins and, to a lesser extent, gold modern commemorative coins continue to show in the market.

Major wholesalers are keeping busy buying large quantities of gold coins to sell to telemarketers and even individual investors are buying physical gold bullion in quantities.

Perhaps scared by the recent corrections in the stock market and signs that point to another potential economic downturn, these investors are going to local shops and buying gold in bulk, hoping to buy something durable and of lasting value.

Understanding rare coin pricing

By Steve Roach
First published in the July 19, 2010 issue of Coin World

Sometimes, a weekly column focused on details of the market like this one appearing in Coin World needs to take a step back and discuss the basics.

It seems that the public dialogue about coins has increased recently, bolstered by high precious metal prices and a ready supply of people eager to exchange assets like coins for quick and easy cash.

Unfortunately, as one news story appearing on Page 1 of the July 12 issue of Coin World reveals, many people are choosing to sell their coins to national traveling buyers, often temporarily located at hotels, and some consumers are being ripped off.

What is equally frustrating is that a wealth of pricing information on the coin market is available for consumers in periodicals like Coin World's Coin Values and books such as Coin World's Guide to U.S. Coins or A Guide Book of United States Coins, best known as the "Red Book" – all of which are widely available at bookstores.

The prices in Coin World's Coin Values are retail prices – that is, where a willing buyer can expect to buy a coin from a willing seller at the retail level. In other words, the prices reflect what you can expect to pay at a local coin shop or at a show.

The difference between wholesale and retail is baffling for collectors and those outside of the hobby, because for coins, separate price guides exist for these two very separate markets. Wholesale prices, as reported in publications like the Coin Dealer Newsletter, or "Grey Sheet," are for dealer-to-dealer transactions.

Wholesale markets are useful to follow in that they often react to market forces much quicker than the retail level.

Yet, wholesale prices often get confused with retail. An article in a recent appraisal publication wrongly suggested that wholesale "bid" and "ask" prices accurately represent what the public can sell and buy coins for at a retail market.

Unfortunately, understanding the delicate balance between buying and selling prices is not easy, but understanding what retail prices are will prevent consumers from being egregiously taken advantage of.

Stickers & "+" Signs

By Steve Roach
First published in the July 12, 2010, issue of Coin World

The advent of the "plus" grade, officially recognized by Professional Coin Grading Service and Numismatic Guaranty Corp., has thrown a wrinkle into a market already trying to figure out what premium to give to coins with a Certified Acceptance Corp. sticker.

A CAC sticker on a slab means that the coin meets CAC's "strict quality standards."

The acceptance that not all Mint State 63 or MS-64 coins are alike is well-received, and the market continues to discount gold coins with copper spots and decide what premiums to add to plus and CAC-stickered coins, while balancing what collectors think of PCGS Secure Plus evaluated coins that did not receive a "+" grade.

If all of this makes your head spin, you're not alone. Consider this:

For a PCGS MS-64 Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagle, six distinct markets currently exist: 1) an MS-64 without spots; 2) an MS-64 with spots; 3) an MS-64 +; 4) an MS-64 CAC; 5) an MS-64+ CAC; and 6) an MS-64 in a Secure Plus holder that did not receive a plus sign.

Continuing with the MS-64 Saint-Gaudens double eagle example, one major wholesaler is selling non-CAC coins near the dealer-to-dealer wholesale bid and selling CAC coins for a $60 premium.

With what seems to be a glut of generic gold coins on the market, pieces with copper spots are increasingly tough to sell without a hearty discount. A major dealer is offering a nearly $100 discount on MS-64 Saint-Gaudens $20 double eagles with copper spots.

When PCGS evaluates a coin in its "Secure Plus" service, it places a shield in the left part of the label. A + sign is added to the grade for any coins submitted under this service tier that PCGS graders deem deserving. The market is still deciding if coins that have been evaluated in the Secure Plus grading tier but did not receive a "Plus" are damaged goods.

Coins without a + can still get CAC stickers, as PCGS and CAC are independent organizations.

Bids on the wholesale trading networks are inconsistent in terms of assessing premiums for PCGS Secure Plus coins, with the strongest market for gold seeming to be for MS-65+ Saint-Gaudens double eagles.