More and more coin shows fill weekends

By Steve Roach
First published in the June 7, 2010 issue of Coin World

If dealers wanted, they could attend a regional- or national-level coin show every weekend of the year. Few dealers want to be on the road that much, so selection is a necessity and shows must prove their usefulness to stay vibrant.

In between Central States Numismatic Society's Milwaukee show and the June Long Beach Coin, Stamp & Collectibles Expo, three shows illustrate different aspects of the show circuit.

From May 12 to May 14, Professional Coin Grading Service sponsored its Las Vegas Invitational in Nevada. It's a small coin show, with fewer than 20 tables, although its market impact is potentially much greater as many of the major wholesale “players” and major collectors attend.

From May 14 to May 15, the Texas Numismatic Association held its 50th anniversary convention in Fort Worth. It featured an auction of coins, paper currency and autographs and documents by Spink-Smythe that realized more than $700,000.

To attract consignments, the firm offered consignors of more than $100,000 in material round trip airfare to Fort Worth and a free two-night hotel stay.

The inaugural Whitman Coins and Collectibles Nashville Expo was held from May 20 to 22 at the convention center in that Tennessee city. The Nashville Expo joins Whitman's established and popular thrice-yearly Baltimore shows and its fall Philadelphia show.

Nashville has been in the news over the past few weeks for its horrific flooding, but Whitman has tried to assure collectors and dealers that the convention area was unharmed by the record-breaking flash floods after the Cumberland River crested at 12 feet above flood stage.  Nashville is pictured above.

Are there too many shows? Depends on who you ask. Each show caters to a different market.

The PCGS Las Vegas show focuses on high-end or high-volume dealers and traders and the sophisticated retail client.

The TNA show is perhaps more local in spirit, with more vest-pocket and weekend dealers, mostly from Texas and surrounding states.

The Nashville Expo is in the middle, with a blend of national-level dealers and regional dealers.

Ultimately, the market needs all three of these kinds of shows to thrive.

Gold record set, but generics rather cold

By Steve Roach
First published in the May 31, 2010 issue of Coin World

As jittery investors react to global economic troubles, they are heading to gold as a safe haven asset.

On May 12, gold traded as high as $1,245.40 an ounce, based predominantly on an increase in demand, rather than a weakening of the U.S. dollar. The price represented a new record high for gold.

Despite the increased price of gold, the premiums for generic U.S. gold coins have been somewhat erratic, with prices showing a mix of up and down movement.

For Coronet gold $20 double eagles, while prices for circulated examples have gone up with the current rise in gold, Mint State examples are trading between dealers at generally substantial discounts to six months ago.

A major wholesale market maker's gold sell list provides examples.

In the past six months, MS-63 Coronet double eagles have fallen in price 17 percent, MS-64 examples have declined 22 percent and MS-65 examples have fallen 23 percent, all while gold increased nearly 5 percent.

Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagles show similar drops in prices in Mint State grades.

For the smaller denomination gold coins, the declines when compared to six months ago are nearly across the board. The drops are smallest on circulated and low-Mint State grades, which trade for lower premiums over their gold content than their more expensive Mint State counterparts.

Part of the reason for the decline in wholesale prices for generic gold coins while gold prices go up is perhaps that large market-making dealers are reluctant to tie up operating capital inventorying these relatively expensive coins, as long as there is so much uncertainty in the gold market.

But these wholesale prices do not always translate neatly into retail price reductions. Many dealers who do not deal in large volumes of generic gold may raise retail prices slightly in response to the increase in gold's value.

The current market still could translate to opportunities for savvy collectors to acquire high-end generic gold at levels discounted from their 2009 prices, as it appears that buyers can now afford to be choosey in the coins they select.

Off market at CSNS show

By Steve Roach
First published in the May 24, 2010 Coin World

The market at the just-completed Central States Numismatic Society convention, held from April 27 to May 1 in Milwaukee, was certainly odd.

One thing odd about the show was that many dealers had already been there for three days before the public was allowed in, making pure retail sales tough to gauge. Tuesday afternoon was Professional Numismatists Guild setup day and Wednesday was PNG Day, with access limited to PNG dealers, invited guests and holders of a $75 Professional Preview badge. Thursday was a Professional Preview day for the holders of the $75 badge.

The public was not invited to the bourse floor until Friday at 10 a.m.

With many dealers packing up and leaving on Friday evening and Saturday morning, this left collectors with a short window to make their purchases and created a disincentive for collectors to travel to Milwaukee, especially in light of the upcoming Whitman Nashville Expo scheduled for May 20 to 22, which has dealer policies perhaps more friendly to collectors.

Heritage Auction Galleries' Platinum Night auction also proved odd when compared to prior years. The top lot, a 1921 Saint-Gaudens gold $20 double eagle graded Mint State 63 by Professional Coin Grading Service, realized $218,500 – the same price that a comparable example sold for at auction in October 2006.

While the individual price levels in the auction were fine, the overall value of the sale was sharply down from past Platinum Night auctions. At $218,500, the top lot in the auction would not have placed in the top 10 of either the 2009 or 2008 CSNS Platinum Night auctions or the 2010, 2009 or 2008 Florida United Numismatists Platinum Night auctions. The $218,500 price would have been only the 25th most expensive coin at the 2008 FUN Platinum Night auction.

If anything seems to confirm dealers' constant grumbling that too few quality coins are in the market, it was the overall weakness of the offered property in the Platinum Night auction, generally among the most highly anticipated sales of the year, although prices achieved for the offered material fell within expectations.

Some State quarter prices up

By Steve Roach
First published in the May 10, 2010 Coin World

The U.S. Mint credits the State quarter dollar series with bringing millions of new collectors to the hobby, most eagerly seeking the coins from change in circulation.

Some collectors of the coins from circulation also sought collector versions, including Proof pieces. In the past several years, some Proof State quarter dollars have emerged as more expensive than others.

For the Proof quarter dollars, the most expensive by far, are the 1999 silver issues: Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Georgia and Connecticut. Their higher prices are in part due to the current high cost of the 1999-S Silver Proof set; the individual issues trade at nearly $2,000 a roll.

The Proof 2001-S silver and copper-nickel clad issues are also expensive, at around $500 and $250 per roll respectively.

A roll of common Proof State silver quarter dollars can be found for $150 while a roll of the most common 2000 Proof clad issues can be found for $50.

Generally for the Proof State quarter dollars, both silver and copper-nickel clad, all five states within a given year trade at around the same level. There are two odd outliers: for 2008 issues, the Hawaii quarter dollar trades at $250 a roll while the other four states' issues linger at the $80 a roll level in copper-nickel clad Proof. The 2002 Ohio quarter dollar trades at $150 a roll in copper-nickel clad and $400 a roll in silver, nearly double the price of the other 2002 issues.

When compared to Proofs, the differences in prices for Mint State circulation strikes are more subtle. Some of the semi-key coins that trade for premiums are the 2003 Illinois quarter dollars from the Philadelphia and Denver Mints, which approach $50 a roll. Mint State rolls of 2002 Tennessee quarter dollars from both Mints approach $40 and the 1999 Georgia and Connecticut rolls approach $30 a roll.

At the very top end of the market are some certified Proof 70 coins, the most remarkable price being for a 1999-S Delaware silver quarter dollar graded Proof 70 deep cameo by Professional Coin Grading Service that brought $17,250 at a 2007 Heritage auction. At the time, PCGS had graded just 16 examples in that grade, but the number has since increased to 53. In 2009, Heritage sold a Delaware copper-nickel clad example in the same grade, with a PCGS population of 70, for less than $1,000.