Error Coins Soar on eBay

By Steve Roach
First published in the April 12, 2010 issue of Coin World

EBay continues to provide a vibrant market for rare coins. As reported in the April 5 Coin World, a 2004-D Wisconsin, Extra Leaf High quarter dollar graded Mint State 67 by Professional Coin Grading Service was sold on March 11 on eBay for $10,000.

It was to some a very surprising price, but it is undoubtedly a condition rarity as it is one of just two graded MS-67 by PCGS

The market for these Wisconsin quarter dollar variations has shown strong legs in the past five years, although looking at auction records from 2006 to the present shows a decline in value for commonly collected grades of MS-64 though MS-66.

For example, a Numismatic Guaranty Corp. MS-64 example of the Extra Leaf High coin sold on eBay for $189 in March, while a PCGS MS-64 sold at Heritage Auctions for $104 in February. Examples of this coin at the same grade generally realized $300 in 2005 to 2007. Now a bit more affordable, the variations are still widely collected.

In another noteworthy sale, an extremely rare error, a 2008 John Quincy Adams dollar struck on a 5-cent coin planchet and graded MS-67 by PCGS, realized $16,100.

To put the strength of this price into perspective, the most expensive single U.S. coin sold on eBay in the past several weeks was a 1907 Saint-Gaudens, High Relief double eagle that realized $20,107.

Among the more high-profile coins offered on eBay that have not found buyers is a 1995-W American Eagle silver dollar graded PCGS Proof 70 deep cameo that went unsold at $69,695.70, an MS-63 1927-S Saint-Gaudens double eagle that went without a bid at $54,500 and a 1793 Flowing Hair, Wreath cent graded AU-55 by PCGS that found no buyer at $45,000.

But, the audience on eBay at the lower tier is thriving. Modern Mint products, such as gold and silver American Eagles, Proof and Uncirculated Mint sets, and certified coins all have robust markets.

Concern about Chinese counterfeits has cooled down lower-value uncertified circulated coins, as deceptive replicas from Chinese sellers have made the area problematic and have scared away some new buyers.

Grading changes ahead?

By Steve Roach
First published in the April 5, 2010 Coin World Special Edition

The basic model of rare coin grading for the two largest grading services, Professional Coin Grading Service and Numismatic Guaranty Corp., has remained the same since the firms were started in 1986 and 1987, respectively.

But some major changes are brewing that could soon change the way rare coins are graded.

PCGS- and NGC-graded coins have the most fluid marketability in both sight-seen (meaning dealers can view the coins before buying) and sight-unseen (dealers choose to accept a coin in a holder at a given grade, regardless of how frumpy the coin is) markets. Thus, any changes to their grading are carefully watched.

For several weeks, PCGS has been touting that on March 25 it will announce "the big one" – a new concept for its grading services that in press releases company officials have called the "next step" that is "going to change coin grading for the better" and "will totally revolutionize the coin grading business."

One can only speculate as to the nature of this development or the impact it will have on the market, but it will likely be a game-changer.

PCGS slabs especially have been the target of Chinese counterfeiters producing fake slabs housing fake coins. The counterfeiters duplicate the unique certification number for a genuine PCGS slab, adding to the deceptiveness.

In April, NGC will launch a service to have metal composition appear on the label for pattern pieces, introducing also a greater role for metallurgic analysis in its coin grading and authentication process. This is a critical step for properly attributing these patterns and so creating a better understanding of them as, once a coin or pattern is slabbed, analysis requires destroying the slab and reattributing the coin.

NGC will also launch a new version of its Collectors Society this summer with enhanced functionality for collector members.

As Chinese counterfeiters improve their skills, and in the absence of any government intervention to stop the flow of counterfeits into the country, the grading services are learning and adjusting to protect the integrity of their slabs, safeguard the hobby, and in doing so, protect their revenue sources.

Off-quality coins a drag on market, but some rarities soar

By Steve Roach
First published in the March 29, 2010 Coin World


The annual March Whitman Coin & Collectibles Baltimore Expo tests the market as it is the first major show for many dealers and East Coast collectors after the Florida United Numismatists show in January.
At this year's March Whitman Baltimore expo, dealer consensus seems to be that off-quality coins are very hard to sell to retail clients, but at the right price many less than stellar coins can still find buyers on the sight-unseen markets.


A look at the auction prices realized by the Bowers & Merena auction reveals a continuance of the selective market that was seen at this past January's FUN show, with buyers readily passing on coins that don't meet their quality standards.  Consignor reserves (minimum prices set by the consignor) generally keep coins from selling too cheaply.

A high point of the auction was the sale of a 1901-S Barber quarter dollar graded Mint State 68 by Professional Coin Grading Service (pictured). It was described in the catalog as the finest graded. It sold for $327,750, including buyer's fee, to David Lawrence Rare Coins.  For such a rare issue, the 1901-S Barber quarter dollar is surprisingly available in MS-65 and higher condition, with gem examples making at least 10 separate auction appearances in the past decade.


DLRC Auctions had auctioned a Numismatic Guaranty Corp. MS-67 example in May 2006 for $109,250, while Heritage sold a PCGS MS-67 piece for $149,500 in January 2005 and a PCGS MS-65 for $120,750 in January 2007.

But rarities, even ones of similar quality and rarity, are not created equal. Heritage auctioned a 1913-S Barber quarter dollar, PCGS MS-68, again the sole MS-68 example by PCGS with no NGC MS-68 pieces, for $86,250 in April 2009. That same example sold for $172,500 in January 2005.

The difference is that the 1901-S Barber quarter dollar is well-known as a rare and expensive key, and it has been called the rarest regular issue silver coin of the 20th century, with a demand that extends beyond the specialist into the greater realm of trophy coins. In contrast, the MS-68 1913-S Barber quarter is of greater interest to the quarter specialist.

Relative value key point in pricing MS-65 Morgan dollars

By Steve Roach

First published in the March 22, 2010 Coin World

Recently a reader asked why common-date certified Mint State 65 Morgan dollars retail for around $150, when 1-ounce silver rounds retail for several dollars over the spot price of an ounce of silver. The answer is that a finite number of Morgan dollars is available, while availability of silver rounds is generally unlimited.

The increased interest in bullion over the past year has had a mildly positive effect on common Mint State Morgan dollars, which are often traded in large groups at the wholesale level.

The wholesale price is often referred to as "bid." When dealers buy easily interchangeable coins, like common MS-65 Morgan dollars, they will generally pay less than bid. This is referred to as "back of bid."

If a coin dealer quotes a buy price as "$20 back of bid," that means he or she will pay $20 less than the published wholesale bid price. Coin World's Coin Values reports prices for the retail coin market, the price at which one would expect to purchase the coin retail.

The market is strongest for generic MS-65 dollars certified by Professional Coin Grading Service and Numismatic Guaranty Corp., with similarly certified examples by ANACS and Independent Coin Grading often selling at a discount.

The quintessential MS-65 Morgan dollar is the 1881-S coin. In MS-65, PCGS has certified 44,175 and NGC has certified 43,615. The two services have graded nearly 30,000 1881-S dollars finer.

This seems like a large number, until one compares it with the mintages of American Eagle silver bullion coins or the production of private silver rounds, of which millions are made each year.

As the reader pointed out, silver rounds are large and flashy, and grading is generally not an issue. But, the reader also pointed out that the Morgan dollars have a historical element that silver rounds cannot duplicate, and that an MS-65 Morgan dollar will likely never meet the melting pot.

Issues of relative value are central to coin pricing. While MS-65 Morgan dollars are common, when compared to silver rounds or American Eagle silver bullion coins, they are proportionally rare, and thus command a substantial premium.

American Eagle gold and silver coins market update

By Steve Roach
First published in the March 15, 2010, issue of Coin World

Unlike the market for classic United States coins, where the market is becoming increasingly picky about quality, the market for modern coins still in their government packages is more about supply and demand than connoisseurship.

The past several months have seen wild fluctuations in the prices of Proof American Eagle gold coins and to a lesser extent the Proof American Eagle silver counterparts. Heavy demand at the wholesale level is driving this market.

At the apex of the Proof American Eagle market several months ago, dealers were paying $2,200 per ounce for Proof American Eagle gold coins in their original boxes with certificates of authenticity.

The prices fell rapidly in January to a low of $1,425 several weeks ago and have rebounded to a more stable $1,580 per ounce at present. It does not appear that the wild market that brought $2,200 per ounce gold American Eagles will return anytime soon.

The recent decline in metal prices also affected Proof American Eagle silver coins, dropping wholesale buy prices to $42 per coin at one point – again assuming that the coins have original boxes and COAs. Today, the Proof American Eagle silver coins are trading for $52 at the wholesale level, with some room to move up.

The premiums on the Proof 2008 American Eagle silver coins have relaxed a bit, as has the market's appetite for 2008-S Proof sets.

Another robust area is in key-date Mint State American Eagle $25 half-ounce gold bullion coins. These have low mintages and are difficult to acquire in any quantities.

For example, while dealers typically purchase common American Eagle gold $25 bullion coins for $620, a major wholesaler is paying $1,075 for 1990 examples and $1,600 for 1991 issues, and he is willing to buy one to 100 of them, certified or not.

The 1990 and 1991 issues have very low mintages, 31,000 and 24,100 respectively. In contrast, nearly 600,000 were struck in 1986. Retail prices will adjust accordingly.

The Mint is releasing 2010 American Eagle silver bullion coins, although the delivery dates to authorized purchasers were delayed. Wholesalers are selling 2010 issues for $2.75 over the spot price of silver.